The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has revised its export forecast for 2026 upwards, now projecting full-year growth of at least 20%.
Concurrently, the HKTDC released its second-quarter 2026 Export Confidence Index, with both core indicators showing improvement. The second-quarter "Current Situation Index" registered at 51.0, while the "Expectations Index" reached 52.4. Both indices have returned to levels above 50, indicating a recovery in exporter confidence despite ongoing adjustments to US trade policy and continued geopolitical developments.
HKTDC Research Director Pang Miao noted: "Despite lingering uncertainties in the Middle East, Hong Kong's exports have continued their recent recovery, benefiting from the technology upcycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and supported by regional trade resilience. Prospects have improved across several of Hong Kong's key markets, with mainland China and ASEAN viewed most favorably by exporters. Following the mid-May meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state and subsequent trade policy developments, exporter confidence in the US market has also rebounded. Overall, while geopolitical developments and global demand risks remain uncertain, Hong Kong's export momentum is expected to remain robust."
In the first five months of 2026, Hong Kong's exports recorded significant growth of 36.2% compared to the same period last year. This surge was primarily driven by the accelerated global AI cycle, which fueled strong demand for electronics products. Electronics, accounting for over 70% of Hong Kong's total exports, continue to be the main growth engine, with semiconductors and electronic components performing particularly well.
As AI applications such as generative AI and enterprise digitalization become more widespread, demand for high-performance chips, information and communications technology (ICT) equipment, and related components continues to rise. This has significantly boosted Hong Kong's re-export trade, particularly to mainland China, ASEAN production bases, and several key developed markets.
Beyond benefiting from strong demand, the recent export growth has also been supported by price factors. Persistent tightness in semiconductor supply has led to notable price increases for some electronic components, especially memory chips and advanced processors.
HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, Zhao Yongchu, pointed out: "The growth in electronics exports is not only due to an increase in export volume but also substantial price increases. Benefiting from elevated prices, the overall export growth has been further amplified. However, as capacity gradually expands and tight supply eases, semiconductor prices are expected to decline. From a long-term perspective, growth in total export value may consequently moderate, but the underlying demand for AI equipment and infrastructure remains resilient."
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