**Protein Meals:** CBOT soybeans declined on Thursday, pressured by profit-taking and technical selling. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures also retreated. Market attention is focused on soybean planting progress, with farmers rushing to plant before expected rainfall. Crude oil prices surged again as market concern over the Middle East heightened, with close monitoring of the evolving situation. Argentina raised its soybean production estimate by 100,000 tonnes to 48.6 million tonnes. Domestically, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures traded within a narrow range. The decline in U.S. soybeans exerted downward pressure on the domestic market. Physical soybean meal transactions showed some improvement as downstream users prepared for the upcoming Labor Day holiday. However, the market is still digesting the pressure from significant import arrivals expected in May, leading to weak soybean meal basis. The current supply-demand dynamic for soybean meal remains characterized by ample supply exceeding demand. Crushing plant operating rates are expected to continue rising next week. The outlook for soybean meal is range-bound with a slightly stronger bias; consider short-term long positions.
**Oils and Fats:** BMD palm oil closed lower on Thursday, ending a three-day rally, due to weakness in related markets. Earlier, Indonesia's announcement of implementing a B50 biodiesel blending mandate starting July 1st, and Malaysia's indication of moving to a B12 mandate, had sparked expectations of increased biodiesel demand, boosting international palm oil prices sharply. Domestic oil futures traded mixed. Overnight tensions in the Middle East flared up again, causing a spike in crude oil prices, which provided support to the vegetable oils market. Close attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East. Physical market pre-holiday restocking is underway ahead of Labor Day, with soybean oil transactions being the most active. However, overall inventory drawdown remains slow, suggesting a weak basis outlook. Strategically, consider buying oils and selling meals, and anticipate a widening of the soybean-palm oil price spread.
**Live Hogs:** The July live hog futures contract continued its upward move on Thursday. The July contract saw a price adjustment accompanied by a reduction in open interest, leading to a decrease in the weighted open interest for hog contracts. In the spot market, hog prices rose in many regions across the country, with coordinated increases seen in Northeast China and the Sichuan-Chongqing area. Currently, the mainstream transaction price for hogs in Heilongjiang is 9.8 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jilin, it is 9.92 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg; in Liaoning, the mainstream slaughter price is 10.13 yuan/kg, up 0.36 yuan/kg; and in Inner Mongolia, the mainstream transaction price is 10 yuan/kg, up 0.32 yuan/kg. Overall, during the price increase, the July contract saw both long and short positions increase. Technically, longs hold the advantage in the July hog contract. Short-term long positions can be held while monitoring the price action, paying close attention to the alignment between spot and futures market performance.
**Eggs:** On Thursday, the main June egg futures contract saw a slight rebound in early trading, followed by sideways movement, and closed slightly lower by the end of the session. The contract ended the day down 0.24% at 3,352 yuan per 500 kilograms. In the spot market, data from SCI99 showed the national average egg price was 3.84 yuan/jin yesterday, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, pink shell eggs in Ningjin were priced at 3.8 yuan/jin, while brown shell eggs in Heishan were at 3.6 yuan/jin, both unchanged. In consumption areas, brown shell eggs in Puxi were priced at 4.0 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan/jin, while brown shell eggs in Guangzhou were at 3.95 yuan/jin, unchanged. End-market sales are on a hand-to-mouth basis, with stable purchasing enthusiasm from downstream segments. Influenced by related commodities in the short term, futures are expected to continue fluctuating at relatively high levels. However, the fundamentally ample supply situation has not yet changed. Until improvements are seen on the supply side, expectations are for eggs to trade within a range. Considering the anticipated future decline in production capacity, the bottom of the trading range may gradually rise. Monitor the impact of new layer placements and culling rates on production capacity. For futures, watch fund flows and movements in related commodities.
**Corn:** On Thursday, the July corn futures contract moved lower with reduced open interest. Both the May and July contracts saw declining open interest, leading to a drop in the weighted open interest for corn contracts, while prices consolidated at high levels. In the spot market, national corn quotations were firm to slightly stronger. Prices in Northeast China were steady to firm, with purchasing enthusiasm from northern ports and downstream users improving compared to earlier periods. Sales by traders in the production area at low prices were generally limited. Currently, corn supplies in the Northeast are mostly concentrated with traders, who are controlling the pace of sales, suggesting prices may fluctuate with adjustments in the short term. Prices in North China remained largely stable overall, with only a few processors making minor adjustments within a narrow range. Traders are managing their shipping schedules, leading to a reduction in overall shipments compared to earlier. Prices are expected to be steady to firm, with some processors potentially making small upward adjustments. Monitor changes in the pace of trader sales closely. Corn prices in consumption areas are trending firmer. Previously driven by gains in the futures market and supported by costs, trader offers increased slightly. However, downstream demand has not significantly expanded. Feed mills continue to replenish stocks based on immediate needs, adopting a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, with widespread cautious观望. Overall, rumors of a reduced volume auction for old-crop rice have reignited bullish sentiment in the spot market. Firm offers in North China have contributed to corn breaking out of its consolidation phase and moving higher. However, it is noteworthy that rumors regarding a potential rice auction on the 30th resurfaced in the market on Wednesday. Policy rumors present a mixed picture. Consider short-term participation.
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