Corn: Neutral 1. Market Focus: There is a maximum limit for wheat/rice feed substitution, and the market has gradually digested bearish news related to auctions, leading to a rebound after the short-term exhaustion of negative factors. The feed soybean meal/corn ratio is gradually approaching a physical safety cushion. Deep processing offers continue to test lower levels with controlled declines, and some purchase prices have seen a pullback. New-season wheat and old-crop wheat offers continue to decline, and feed enterprises may adjust their substitution ratios close to the theoretical upper limit. The USDA's new-season assessment is neutral to slightly bullish, with U.S. and global corn ending stocks expected to fall to multi-year lows. The supply-demand structure is tightening further compared to this year, and the price center is expected to shift higher year-on-year. The outlook for corn remains bullish, but note that increased production in South America partially offsets the tightening in the U.S., meaning the price uptrend may not be a smooth, unilateral rise. 2. View Summary: The market has seen a rebound after digesting bearish factors, and the corresponding spot price decline in the previous round was limited. Industry and channel participants remain confident, but grain pressure persists. Consider testing long positions at low levels.
Soybean Meal: Neutral to Bullish 1. The May USDA report released short-term bullish signals, with CBOT soybeans rising overnight: The report lowered old-crop ending stocks to 340 million bushels (previous: 350 million bushels) and preliminarily estimated new-crop ending stocks at 310 million bushels, below the pre-report market average expectation of 364 million bushels. After the report, market focus will gradually shift to weather changes in U.S. soybean growing regions from June to August and the realization of new-season yields. Additionally, the market is watching whether this week's meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders will result in new soybean purchase agreements. 2. Dalian soybean meal is expected to follow U.S. markets in the short term, with prices likely to maintain wide fluctuations. If subsequent new U.S. soybean purchases by China materialize and push up U.S. market prices, soybean meal prices may show a combination of stronger futures (reflecting higher import costs) and pressured basis (reflecting increased supply). View Summary: Prices are expected to strengthen intraday driven by U.S. markets, but be cautious of potential pullbacks if new U.S. soybean purchases fall short of expectations. Maintain a range-trading approach overall, and monitor the performance of soybean meal September contracts within the 3000-3100 yuan/ton range intraday.
Eggs: Neutral to Bullish Spot prices in major production areas are stable. Hebei Guantao spot offers are at 4.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Sample enterprises added 46.7 million chicks in April 2026, down 0.6% year-on-year but up 1.4% month-on-month. April chick placements continued at historically high levels for the same period, with breeding enthusiasm steadily rising. In absolute terms, total placements from January to April were only lower than in 2025, exceeding other years since 2020. Spot prices are running strong in the short term, with low market inventories driving strength in nearby futures contracts. However, the current layer inventory remains relatively high overall, and breeding farms are delaying culling and holding back. The gradual increase in new laying hens will lead to a supply recovery. Additionally, with high temperatures and rainy weather approaching and cautious terminal consumption, the peak season is nearing its end, and risks of a high-level correction are accumulating. In the short term, follow the spot strength cautiously. In the medium to long term, pressure from the off-season is expected, so avoid chasing rallies at high levels. View Summary: For nearby contracts, monitor basis conditions and seize opportunities to take profits and exit at highs. Distant contracts have significant premium space; consider hedging opportunities appropriately.
Live Hogs: Neutral to Bearish Live hog spot prices are fluctuating. The average spot price in major production areas yesterday was 9.59 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. Previously, the nearby July 2607 contract maintained a premium of about 1,500 points over spot, reflecting the divergence between strong expectations and weak reality. Yesterday, the nearby contract adjusted significantly due to its high premium and slower-than-expected spot price increases. The futures structure has shown clear divergence, exhibiting backwardation pricing characteristics, which temporarily reflects market expectations for policy adjustments. The premium in distant contracts driven by expectations requires further validation from future capacity reduction data. According to the latest piglet data guidance, newborn piglets in April increased by 0.7% month-on-month. Despite a significant drop in spot prices in April, the number of newborn piglets rose month-on-month, reflecting the industry's strong counter-cyclical resilience and the difficulty of market-driven capacity reduction. View Summary: Trade nearby contracts within a range. Distant contracts face short-term adjustment pressure due to high premiums; watch for pullbacks to consider long positions.
Risk Disclosure: The information in this report is based on publicly available data. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy and reliability, no guarantee is provided regarding its completeness or correctness. Trading based on this information is at your own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not account for individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situations, or needs. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances.
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