Moderna, Inc. closed at $174.38, rising 176.97%.
MRNA options flow showed a heavily bearish tilt, with the largest trades dominated by premium collection on upside calls and long-dated downside protection. A $525 thousand bear call spread and a $1.67 million put purchase stood out, while total bearish premium of $4.63 million dwarfed $632 thousand in bullish premium, leaving a $4.00 million net bearish imbalance.
>>>Click to claim your commission-free cards before trading!
Options Indicators
MRNA’s implied volatility is 139.12%, and with an IV percentile of 100.00%, current option volatility sits at the extreme high end of its historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 2.34, this indicates the options market is pricing in substantially more future movement than the stock has recently realized, leaving contracts in an elevated and expensive state from a volatility standpoint. In this setup, long premium positions face a high entry cost and greater sensitivity to volatility compression, while defined-risk premium-selling structures or spreads may offer a more efficient way to express a view. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.46.
Large Trades
A bear call spread collecting a net credit of $525 thousand was the largest featured combination trade, built by selling 1,500 Aug. 28, 2026 $135 calls and buying 1,500 Aug. 28, 2026 $145 calls. With MRNA referenced at $174.38, both strikes are in the money, and the structure reflects a defined-risk bearish call spread designed to collect premium while expressing the view that upside will remain capped below the spread’s upper region over time. The net credit points to a premium-collection strategy with a bearish bias rather than an outright high-conviction upside chase.
A PUT buy worth $1.67 million in the Mar. 19, 2027 $80 strike was the other highlighted large trade. This was a purchase of 2,000 out-of-the-money puts, making it a clearly bearish position that benefits from a substantial decline in MRNA over a longer-dated horizon. Because the strike sits far below the current stock price, the trade looks like either a downside hedge against major weakness or a low-strike speculative bearish bet on a deeper drawdown rather than a near-term tactical hedge around current levels.
Overall, large-trade flow in MRNA was decisively bearish, with $4.63 million of bearish premium versus just $632 thousand of bullish premium, leaving a net bearish imbalance of $4.00 million. The directional takeaway is clearly negative: the dominant flows were a bearish premium-selling call spread and a sizable long-dated put purchase, while the bullish activity was limited to smaller put sales. That mix suggests institutions were more focused on capping upside and positioning for downside risk than on building constructive exposure.
Strategy Reference
Given the extreme IV percentile, traders selling premium can consider out-of-the-money puts below the highlighted $80 long-dated strike—such as the $60 or $65 puts—to collect elevated premium with a lower assignment probability, while those seeking to avoid large margin on uncovered calls may prefer the defined-risk bear call spread structure with a narrower $135/$145 width.
Comments