U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced heavy redemptions on Friday, October 30, with a single-day net outflow reaching $643.3 million 鈥?the largest one-day outflow since June 25 ($696.3 million), according to Woofun AI data.
As of that day, total net asset value across these products stood at approximately $98.14 billion, with cumulative net inflows of about $56.98 billion since their listing in January 2024.
Breaking down the flow structure, BlackRock (BLK.US)'s IBIT led with an outflow of $233.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with $201.0 million, ARKB at approximately $130 million, GBTC at $53.32 million, and BITB at $25.72 million. No spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows on that day.
Woofun AI data shows this outflow was slightly larger than the $635.6 million seen on October 22. The largest single-day net outflow on record was $1.14 billion on February 25, 2025, and this event ranks second only to June 25 within 2026.
The decentralized exchange Derive pointed out that the $6.3 billion-scale hack suffered by Binance on Thursday night was a key trigger for the panic, as traditional investors rushed to withdraw funds to avoid uncertainty, causing demand indicators such as the Coinbase (COIN.US) premium to weaken simultaneously.
A more critical variable lies in the convergence of multiple short-term macro and micro factors. Bitfire noted that the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will determine the regulatory tone for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, while the October nonfarm payrolls report due on November 6 could reshape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path.
In addition, MSCI finalized new rules targeting "non-operating companies" on October 15 and published 22 potentially affected companies, 14 of which are crypto-related. Strategy (MSTR.US) and Metaplanet are among those slated for removal, with the final list to be announced on November 11 and take effect after the close on November 30.
JPMorgan estimates that Strategy's removal would trigger approximately $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows. Strategy stated that index fund holdings account for about 3.1% of its basic shares. Passive selling could weaken both companies' ability to continue adding to their BTC holdings.
The market is currently at a critical juncture of confidence recovery, with the liquidity shock triggered by the hacking incident overlapping with macro policy uncertainty, pushing institutional funds toward defensive positioning in the short term. This marks the market's second sharp reaction to systemic risk after June's single-month net outflow of $4.06 billion, and future trends will depend heavily on election results and the ripple effects of index adjustments.
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