Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans reached a two-month high, driven by expectations of improved trade prospects boosting U.S. soybean demand. Reports indicate that Trump will visit China in April, with U.S.-China economic and trade teams maintaining close communication, which the market interprets as positive for U.S. soybean exports. The USDA's weekly export sales data fell short of expectations, with net sales increasing by 281,800 tons for the week, down 36% from the previous week and 80% below the four-week average. Additionally, private exporters confirmed the sale of 108,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt. Domestically, soybean meal prices rose as positions were reduced. The increase in U.S. soybean prices raised import costs, pushing up domestic soybean meal prices. Meanwhile, concentrated exits by short sellers ahead of the holiday also contributed to the price rise. Spot trading in the soybean meal market was light, with both upstream and downstream participants on holiday, though basis levels remained firm. Strategically, short-term participation is advised, with the May-September spread position exited.
Edible Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day, pressured by a stronger Malaysian ringgit and weakness in related markets. At a recent palm oil industry conference, several experts predicted that Malaysian palm oil prices would trend lower with fluctuations, citing ample supply and weak demand. Data showed Indonesia's end-December stocks at 2.66 million tons and Malaysia's end-January stocks at 2.82 million tons. Shipping data indicated that Malaysian palm oil exports for February 1-10 fell by 10.5% to 14% compared to the previous period. Domestically, palm oil prices declined, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices held firm. The domestic palm oil market continued to weaken as it digested bearish signals from the industry conference. With the market gradually entering holiday mode, spot market guidance for futures was limited. Futures prices followed import cost fluctuations, with ongoing attention to U.S. biodiesel policies, U.S.-India agreements, and domestic oilseed procurement. Strategically, short-term trading is recommended.
Live Hogs: On Thursday, the lead live hog futures contract for May 2026 opened lower but rebounded, closing down 0.13% at 11,540 yuan per ton. Zhuochuang data showed the average national live hog price at 11.48 yuan per kilogram yesterday, up 0.08 yuan from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery region of Henan, the average price was 12.62 yuan per kilogram, up 0.3 yuan. Prices were flat in Sichuan and Guangdong, rose in Shandong, and fell in Liaoning. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, slaughter volumes from farms are gradually decreasing, with active price-supporting sentiment driving up mainstream hog prices. In some regions, demand continued to decline, leading to sluggish market activity and mixed price movements. Given the extended holiday period, attention should be paid to changes in spot hog prices and related commodity prices overseas, which may impact post-holiday futures prices.
Eggs: On Thursday, the lead egg futures contract for April 2026 continued its rebound, closing up 1.39% at 3,200 yuan per 500 kilograms. Spot prices showed the national average egg price at 3.21 yuan per jin yesterday, down 0.05 yuan. As the Spring Festival approaches, most sales markets are closed. For instance, no deliveries were recorded at Guangzhou Chatou Market, Dongguan Xinli Market, or Beijing Dayanglu Market. Due to uncertainty in egg prices during the holiday, it is advisable to maintain light or neutral positions. Market participants should monitor changes in holiday demand for eggs and related commodity price movements overseas, which could influence post-holiday futures prices.
Corn: This week, the lead corn futures contract for May 2026 rose with increased positions, closing the day with a strong bullish candlestick as prices broke above the upper bound of the recent trading range, driven primarily by macroeconomic factors and fund activity. Corn futures halted their decline and moved higher, influenced by gains in soybeans. In the week before the Spring Festival, positions in the March contract shifted to May, with the spot market closed awaiting direction from futures. Currently, market activity is subdued, with corn prices in Northeast China stabilizing. Farmers showed limited selling enthusiasm, while drying facilities in production areas purchased cautiously, with some already halting operations. Pre-holiday trading in Northeast China has largely concluded, with low market activity and little price adjustment. Deep processing plants in the region have also suspended purchases for the holiday. In sales regions, corn prices adjusted narrowly. Some port traders raised prices slightly, though overall market volatility was limited. Downstream enterprises remained cautious, with slow procurement pace and focus on fulfilling existing orders. Overall, in the week before the holiday, the spot market was closed while futures rallied, with macroeconomic factors guiding price direction. Technically, as the holiday approaches, fund flows are dominating futures market movements, suggesting short-term participation as the primary strategy.
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