Major stock indices experienced volatile and divergent performance today. The Shanghai Composite Index once fell below the 4100-point mark during the session, closing down 0.33% at 4112.6 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.56%, while the STAR Composite Index declined by 0.55%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.91 trillion yuan, shrinking by 1.04 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks declining. By sector, semiconductor materials and equipment, lithography machines, and advanced packaging led the gains; AI application and commercial aerospace concepts saw notable pullbacks.
The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) staged a strong rally this afternoon, closing up 5.32%.
The semiconductor industry chain demonstrated robust performance in the afternoon. On the news front, TSMC released its Q4 financial report, announcing a net profit of $160 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase that exceeded expectations and hit a record high. Its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 was significantly raised to $520-560 billion, compared to only $409 billion in 2024, substantially surpassing market expectations. As the world's largest chip foundry, TSMC's capital expenditure plans serve as an important reference for the downstream industry. Concurrently, TSMC anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditure over the next three years, greatly solidifying market expectations for long-term AI demand (for industry analysis only, not constituting individual stock investment advice). The global wave of AI infrastructure development is still unfolding, with major capital expenditure cycles already initiated in segments like advanced processes and memory wafers. Overseas, some equipment companies have seen their market capitalizations and order scales break historical records. Driven by expectations of continued AI infrastructure advancement, the semiconductor industry chain's prosperity is expected to rise further. Domestically, Chinese wafer fabs are currently expanding capacity at a rapid pace, strengthening expectations for price increases across upstream segments. According to Guosen Securities, the storage and high-end PCB industry chains currently remain in a state of supply shortage, while recent expectations for price increases have emerged to varying degrees in segments like wafer foundry, advanced packaging and testing, analog chips, passive components, and LCD. Pulled by downstream AI demand and combined with the trends of self-sufficiency and increasing localization rates, semiconductor industry chain revenue and orders are expected to maintain rapid growth. Upcoming events like the listings of the two memory companies and developments in overseas computing power may further catalyze the sector. Interested investors can monitor the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) for targeted exposure to upstream equipment and materials in the semiconductor industry chain.
The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) closed up 1.80% today.
New energy vehicle and lithium battery related concepts were among the top gainers today. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, setting new historical records. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively, increasing by 29% and 28.2% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. Foreign trade demonstrated strong resilience, with annual automobile exports exceeding 7 million units, including 2.615 million new energy vehicles. The 2026 automobile trade-in subsidy policy has been implemented as scheduled. The maximum subsidy per vehicle remains unchanged, with subsidies tapering for mass-market models under 200,000 yuan but continuing for mid-to-high-end models above 200,000 yuan, which is expected to further stimulate auto market consumption. As demand recovers and products iterate and upgrade driven by trends like intelligence, connectivity, and fast charging, new energy vehicle sales are expected to maintain their high-growth trajectory. The global new energy vehicle market continues to expand, coupled with the rapid development of the energy storage industry driven by data center storage allocation needs, lithium battery demand is forecast to keep rising. From a policy perspective, on January 7th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and other departments jointly held a forum on the power and energy storage battery industry, providing guidance against "internal competition". The industry may subsequently plan capacity layout more rationally, benefiting long-term healthy development. From an industry standpoint, the industrialization of new technologies like solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries is accelerating breakthroughs. Leading lithium battery manufacturers are promoting new business models such as technology licensing and cooperative operations to advance overseas expansion. The prosperity of the lithium battery industry chain is expected to continue improving. Interested investors can monitor the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) for one-click access to quality players in the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries.
The New Materials 50 ETF (159761) closed up 2.91%; the Chemical Industry Leaders ETF (516220) rose 1.27%.
The chemical sector's prosperity is expected to rebound. The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with chemical product prices at historical lows. The growth rate of industry projects under construction has turned negative year-on-year, indicating that capacity expansion is nearing its end. Policies aimed at curbing "internal competition" have been implemented in segments like PTA, polyester filament, and organic silicon, optimizing the supply structure through industry self-discipline production cuts or policy constraints. Obsolete capacity is exiting faster, as seen in the ongoing clearance of high-cost capacity in industries like large-scale refining, spandex, and chlor-alkali. Chemical products serve numerous downstream industries. Policy-driven recovery in sectors like automobiles, textiles & apparel, and home appliances is expected to boost demand for chemicals. Simultaneously, the development of emerging downstream industries like semiconductors and energy storage is significantly increasing demand for new chemical materials. Photoresists, electronic special gases, wet electronic chemicals, and polishing materials are core raw materials for the semiconductor industry, and their import substitution process is accelerating. Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are increasing demand for new chemical materials like specialty carbon black. Development in the photovoltaic and wind power industries is driving demand recovery for chemicals like silicon materials, EVA/POE raw materials for photovoltaic film, and carbon fiber. The chemical industry may be approaching an inflection point in its cycle. Interested investors can monitor the New Materials 50 ETF (159761) and the Chemical Industry Leaders ETF (516220). Risk Warning: Investors should fully understand the differences between fund systematic investment plans (like regular fixed-amount investing) and savings methods such as lump-sum deposit withdrawal. Systematic investment is a simple way to guide investors toward long-term investing and average cost investing. However, it cannot eliminate the inherent risks of fund investment, guarantee investor returns, or serve as an equivalent substitute for savings. Whether stock ETFs/LOFs/structured funds, these are securities investment fund products characterized by relatively high expected risk and expected returns. Their expected returns and risk levels are higher than those of hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. Fund assets invested in STAR Market and ChiNext stocks face specific risks due to differences in investment targets, market systems, and trading rules; investors are reminded to note this. Short-term price changes for sectors/funds are presented solely as supplementary material for article analysis and are for reference only, not constituting a guarantee of fund performance. Mentioned short-term stock performance is for reference only, not constituting stock recommendations or guarantees of fund performance predictions. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or promises. If purchasing related fund products, please pay attention to relevant investor suitability management regulations, complete a risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with a risk level matching your own risk tolerance based on the assessment. Funds carry risks; invest with caution. Featured Author: Guotai Asset Management
MACD golden cross signals formed; these stocks are performing well!
Massive information, precise interpretation, all in the Sina Finance App.
Comments