Helium, a critical raw material for semiconductor manufacturing, has become a focal point for the tech industry as the conflict in Iran disrupts global supply chains. If the conflict persists, helium prices are likely to remain elevated, forcing some buyers to accelerate efforts to diversify their procurement sources. The Middle East conflict has severely restricted exports from Qatar, a major global helium supplier, potentially creating opportunities for Russia to benefit.
As industry observers assess the potential long-term impacts of the Iran conflict, helium has moved to the forefront of concerns for the technology sector. Helium, a byproduct of natural gas production, is essential for semiconductor manufacturing. The export capacity of the world's second-largest helium supplier has been significantly constrained due to hostilities involving Iran. Data from S&P Global indicates that Qatar, home to some of the world's largest gas fields, accounted for over 30% of the global helium market supply projected for 2025—a substantial deficit that would be difficult to fill. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted in a March 12 report that "military conflict between the US and Iran has halted Qatari helium production, effectively removing approximately one-third of global helium supply, rapidly shifting the market from oversupply to a deficit." Helium prices have surged significantly since then. While most market observers remain optimistic that chip manufacturers will still be able to access the gas, a prolonged conflict would mean procurement teams must work intensely to maintain stable supply chains. North American helium producers, who hold the largest share of the global market, are set to benefit from the disruption in Qatari supplies. Russia, the world's third-largest helium supplier, could also gain market share.
Russia's Helium Position Leveraging its cooling properties, helium is used for heat transfer in multiple stages of the chip fabrication process. A Bernstein report from March 13, referencing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, stated that even before the Iran conflict erupted, Russia had been expanding its helium production capacity based on substantial reserves while also "needing to finance its war." Analysts added that this led to a flood of helium supply in non-sanctioned markets, depressing prices. Although Western sanctions and trade restrictions make it difficult for Russian helium to enter Western markets, other major chip-manufacturing nations, such as China, are increasingly turning to Russia. Data from the Semiconductor Industry Association shows that China accounted for 33% of global production of mature-node chips in 2023. Figures from the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) indicate that Russia's helium exports to China surged by 60% year-on-year in 2025. A prolonged disruption of Qatari helium exports would create a significant supply shortfall for China—according to CGEP data, 54% of China's helium imports last year came from Qatar. Ralf Gubler, Director of Energy, Industrial Gases, and Fertilizers Research at S&P Global, stated that due to trade restrictions, Russian helium is unlikely to be the first choice for Western chipmakers but can "enter markets like China, thereby exacerbating supply tightness elsewhere." Erica Downs, a research scholar at CGEP, wrote in a blog post, "If the disruption to Qatari supplies persists, Russia is well-positioned to further increase its share in China's helium supply mix." Phil Kornbluth, President of a helium consulting firm, noted that Russian helium has not yet been qualified for supply to wafer fabs, but it could be used in other applications, thereby freeing up certified helium supplies for the chip industry. Bernstein believes that factors such as increased Russian supply, deeper cooperation between chipmakers and industrial gas companies, and corporate inventory stockpiling make it unlikely that semiconductor production will be significantly impacted by helium shortages. However, if the conflict continues, helium prices will likely remain high, and some buyers will be compelled to accelerate the diversification of their procurement sources. Geopolitics, trade restrictions, and the scale of supply will undoubtedly limit Russia's ability to fully fill the gap left by Qatar, even as Qatar works to restore its natural gas production. Nevertheless, this internationally isolated nation still has markets willing to engage in trade.
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