On May 15th, persistent geopolitical tensions continue to unsettle global commodity markets, drawing renewed institutional focus to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. Vatee WanTeng indicates that although gold prices have faced short-term pressure and experienced a pullback, the underlying demand structure reveals that allocations from institutions and sovereign wealth funds remain robust. The recent decline is seen more as the partial realization of earlier safe-haven premiums rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
Vatee WanTeng's analysis notes that James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC, recently stated that the spot premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange stands at approximately twenty dollars, reflecting strong physical buying in key Asian consumption regions. Institutional allocation demand has become a crucial supporting force in the current cycle. Concurrently, global central banks have maintained a net gold purchasing trend for multiple consecutive years, steadily elevating the price floor for gold. Overall, the diversified support structure for gold prices has not fundamentally weakened.
From a geopolitical perspective, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased temporarily, the ceasefire framework remains fragile, and market attention to potential renewed disruptions has not diminished. Industry analysis suggests that in an environment of significantly heightened uncertainty, the strategic value of gold as a hedging tool is further increasing, and the appropriate allocation ratio within asset portfolios is being reassessed.
Looking ahead, Vatee WanTeng anticipates that gold prices will continue to fluctuate in response to U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar's movements, and geopolitical events. However, the medium to long-term support structure remains generally sound. Investors are advised to align their actions with their own risk preferences, monitor the tug-of-war in the price range of $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce, and track monthly central bank gold purchase data, while remaining vigilant about the risk of amplified short-term volatility.
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