Abstract
RLX Technology will report second-quarter 2026 results Pre-MKt on August 14, 2026, with market forecasts pointing to year-over-year growth across revenue and earnings; investors will focus on the sustainability of international revenue momentum, margin progression, and whether one-off benefits seen in the prior quarter normalize.Market Forecast
For the second quarter of 2026, forecasts indicate revenue of RMB 1.15 billion, up 58.62% year over year, EBIT of RMB 160.57 million, up 167.62% year over year, and adjusted EPS of RMB 0.63, up 250.00% year over year. Margin guidance for the quarter has not been provided, but prior commentary underscored operating leverage from mix improvement. The company’s main business continues to be distribution-led sales, with execution now increasingly oriented toward overseas channels following recent integration of a new consolidated operating hub. The most promising segment remains international markets, which accounted for 72.3% of first-quarter 2026 revenue and powered the group’s 96.19% year-over-year revenue increase; this contribution is expected to sustain outperformance in the current quarter.Last Quarter Review
In the first quarter of 2026, RLX Technology delivered revenue of RMB 1.59 billion, gross profit margin of 34.31%, net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 284.00 million, a net profit margin of 19.33%, and adjusted EPS of RMB 0.26, up 37.70% year over year. One key highlight was the broad-based beat against forecasts: revenue exceeded estimates by RMB 433.61 million, and EBIT outpaced projections by RMB 140.59 million, reflecting notable operating leverage. The main business mix featured offline distribution revenue of RMB 3.49 billion, online and offline direct end-user sales of RMB 252.82 million, and other businesses of RMB 216.00 million; at the group level, revenue grew 96.19% year over year, propelled by international contributions comprising 72.3% of quarterly revenue and a 1.64% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit.Current Quarter Outlook
Main revenue engine: channel distribution and execution quality
Execution quality across distribution channels is the primary driver of quarterly delivery, and the focus into the second quarter is on how channel inventory, pricing discipline, and tax pass-through are managed in both home and overseas markets. The mix skews toward distribution-led sales with measured exposure to direct end-user channels, and this balance has historically supported a resilient gross margin profile. Management’s consolidation of R&D, manufacturing, and commercial operations under the integrated “Nexus” campus has arguably shortened response times for replenishment and new product introductions, which supports sell-through in the distribution network. With first-quarter revenue up 96.19% year over year and gross margin at 34.31%, investors will gauge whether second-quarter dynamics—absent some of the one-off tailwinds that aided the prior quarter—can keep gross margin stable while sustaining volume momentum. Pricing architecture and disciplined channel rebates will be key to avoiding margin dilution as shipments scale, especially where logistics costs and product taxes can fluctuate by destination.Fastest-growing vector: international markets
International markets are the clearest growth vector this year. In the first quarter of 2026, net revenue from overseas contributed 72.3% of the total, and management cited the consolidation benefits from a European acquisition and policy-driven export timing as short-term positives. For the second quarter, the forecasted RMB 1.15 billion in revenue implies a continuation of strong demand and better geographic breadth, even as certain one-time benefits likely fade. The operating integration under the “Nexus” campus has strengthened supply-chain agility, allowing localized assortment, compliance alignment, and faster rotation of inventory. The key question for this quarter is how much of Q1’s acceleration converts into durable run-rate growth versus pull-forward effects. Order cadence in Europe and selected emerging markets, retail shelf productivity, and repeat rates will be important signals of durability. Even with normalization, the segment’s contribution appears sufficient to support consensus revenue growth of 58.62% year over year and a 167.62% EBIT increase, underscoring the operating leverage potential when international scale intersects with streamlined manufacturing.What will move the stock: margins, sustainability of growth, and capital allocation signals
The stock’s near-term movement will likely hinge on three factors: margin progression, the sustainability of top-line growth, and any capital allocation signals. On margins, investors will scrutinize the interplay of product taxes, channel incentives, and logistics costs against list pricing and mix—the prior quarter’s 34.31% gross margin sets a high bar, and maintaining or modestly expanding it would be viewed favorably. On growth, the market will look for evidence that first-quarter momentum—helped by acquisition effects and export timing—remains intact without reliance on one-offs; clean underlying demand in international markets, combined with steady sell-through in domestic channels, would validate the 58.62% revenue growth forecast. Finally, indications on cash deployment—whether toward incremental capacity, bolt-on investments to deepen overseas presence, or shareholder returns—can shape sentiment, particularly given the company’s historically strong liquidity profile and the importance of signaling confidence in forward cash generation.Analyst Opinions
Across recent financial-media briefings and investor-platform commentaries focused on RLX Technology from January 1, 2026 to August 7, 2026, the views are predominantly bullish, with no identifiable bearish previews in the collected period; the bullish-to-bearish ratio stands at 100% to 0%. Commentators emphasized the magnitude of first-quarter acceleration—96.19% year-over-year revenue growth and a 72.3% overseas revenue mix—as validation of the company’s global expansion and supply-chain integration efforts. Several previews expect the second quarter to reflect strong, albeit more normalized, international demand, with robust year-over-year comparisons supported by consolidation benefits and improved operating efficiency. These views align with the quantitative forecasts in hand: revenue growth of 58.62% year over year, EBIT up 167.62%, and adjusted EPS up 250.00% year over year. The majority opinion also anticipates a controlled gross margin trajectory as the product portfolio and channel mix continue to trend toward higher-quality earnings, with attention on how any fading of one-time benefits affects the run-rate in the second half of the year.Supportive commentaries point to three main arguments. First, the shift toward overseas sales at scale is believed to have structurally improved the revenue base, with broader geographic diversification lowering volatility from any single market. Second, operating leverage was evident in the prior quarter’s revenue and EBIT beats, and with the “Nexus” campus bringing manufacturing and commercial operations closer together, previews anticipate continued cost absorption benefits as volume grows. Third, management’s execution around channel hygiene—particularly inventory discipline and stepped-up enforcement against counterfeit activity—has been cited as a factor in maintaining pricing and brand equity, which, in turn, supports margin resilience. The majority view expects second-quarter trends to illustrate that the business can convert volume growth into earnings at an attractive rate, even if growth normalizes from the first-quarter spike.
From a risk-balance perspective within the prevailing bullish view, commentators will be watching for signs that export or policy-driven benefits in the first quarter do not create a hangover effect in the second quarter’s order pipeline. They also highlight that messaging around the pace of international expansion, especially in Europe and selected emerging markets, will be crucial to sustaining confidence in the back-half trajectory. Overall, the consensus among the previews we reviewed is that RLX Technology enters the second quarter with a favorable setup: positive revenue momentum, improving operating efficiency, and an opportunity to maintain healthy gross margin performance while reinvesting in overseas scale. If management delivers on the revenue, EBIT, and EPS growth implied by current expectations, it would reinforce the bullish majority stance heading into the remainder of the year.
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