**Steel Morning Report: Weakening Raw Material Support, Futures Trading Weak with Fluctuations** **Market Information:** 1. China's economic "report card" for 2025 is out. For the full year of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan; the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year; total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; fixed asset investment fell by 3.8%, of which real estate development investment dropped by 17.2%. At the end of 2025, the national population was 1.40489 billion, with 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths, resulting in a net decrease of 3.39 million people in the total population year-on-year. 2. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, down 4.4% year-on-year; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year; steel product output was 1.44612 billion tons, up 3.1% year-on-year. 3. According to customs statistics, China's total foreign trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 3.8% and hitting a record high. Exports amounted to 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, while imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.5%. Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that China's cumulative steel product exports in 2025 were 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, also setting a new historical record. 4. On January 20, the transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.165 million tons, down 2.4% from the previous day; transactions of construction steel products by 237 mainstream traders amounted to 78,000 tons, a decrease of 8.4% day-on-day. 5. Last week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate at 247 steel mills was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points from the week before; the mill profit rate stood at 39.83%, increasing by 2.17 percentage points week-on-week; average daily hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, down 14,900 tons from the previous week. 6. Last week, the supply of the five major steel products totaled 8.1921 million tons, up 6,200 tons week-on-week, a slight increase of 0.1%; total inventory reached 12.4701 million tons, down 69,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%; apparent consumption was 8.2612 million tons, rising 3.7% week-on-week. Specifically, rebar production decreased by 7,400 tons to 1.903 million tons, while total rebar inventory edged down by 400 tons to 4.3807 million tons; apparent demand for rebar rebounded by 152,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. Hot-rolled coil production increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory dropping by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons; apparent demand for hot-rolled coil rose by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons.
**Rebar:** Last week, rebar production decreased by 7,400 tons to 1.903 million tons, while total rebar inventory edged down by 400 tons to 4.3807 million tons; apparent demand rebounded by 152,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. Currently, rebar production has risen for the fourth consecutive week, yet demand continues to weaken, indicating a relatively weak fundamental picture. From the raw materials perspective, winter restocking is more than halfway complete, suggesting that mill procurement may become more cautious, thereby weakening cost support. In the spot market, trading volumes remain subdued, pointing to continued narrow-range fluctuations in steel prices in the short term.
**Hot-Rolled Coil:** Last week, hot-rolled coil production increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory dropping by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons; apparent demand rose by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons. Pressure from previous capacity adjustments and product switching persists, keeping supply relatively ample. On the demand side, the seasonal lull combined with weather constraints means end-user rigid demand dominates, offering limited incremental growth. Traders maintain a cautious outlook, widely adopting a "low inventory, fast turnover" strategy, actively selling to recoup funds. However, it is important to note that absolute inventory levels remain high. After the release of speculative demand, downstream end-user purchasing is likely to turn cautious, suggesting short-term steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Strategy-wise, the short-term trading range for rebar contract 2605 is referenced at 3100-3200 yuan/ton; the trading range for hot-rolled coil contract 2605 is referenced at 3250-3350 yuan/ton.
**Ferroalloy Morning Report: Weakness in Both Supply and Demand** **View: Neutral** Overall ferroalloy supply remains low, with production slightly declining this week. Following the previous price surge, upstream producers seized the opportunity for hedging, indicating that supply has likely bottomed out. Inventories at upstream plants are diverging: silicon iron faces little pressure, while silicon manganese inventories saw a slight decrease but pressure persists. The cost side has softened marginally, with proposed coke price increases not yet materializing and manganese ore prices weakening at the margin. Given the low supply state, the necessity for further significant price declines to squeeze profits has diminished. On the demand side, steel mill production intensity has decreased, and the pace of production resumptions, constrained by profitability, has fallen short of expectations. Winter restocking is entering its final stages. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern. **View: Adopt a wait-and-see approach.**
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