CLSA Predicts Macau's May Gaming Revenue Target of MOP 22.6 Billion Achievable

Stock News05-04 15:58

CLSA has released a research report detailing observations from visits to multiple Macau casinos during the Golden Week holiday starting May 2. The firm noted that as visitor traffic increased after midday, minimum betting levels appeared healthy. In the mass market segment, the most common minimum bet ranged from HKD 1,000 to HKD 2,000 per wager, while the VIP areas generally featured minimum bets as high as HKD 5,000. At City of Dreams, two tables with a minimum bet of HKD 10,000 were observed. CLSA believes the forecast of MOP 22.6 billion in gross gaming revenue for May should be attainable.

The report highlighted that casinos such as MGM China and City of Dreams have introduced new side-bet options. Although players may need time to adapt, CLSA expects that a greater variety of gaming choices will structurally enhance casino win rates over the long term. Additionally, the firm pointed out that since 2025, there has been a growing willingness among premium mass customers to visit Macau during non-peak weeks. A strong tailwind lasting about one week is anticipated following the Golden Week period.

CLSA reiterated its projection that Macau's gross gaming revenue in May 2026 will increase by 6.6% year-on-year to MOP 22.6 billion. This forecast is broadly in line with the market consensus of 6.3% growth, and the firm expresses confidence in achieving the target. CLSA also commented that the current enterprise value to EBITDA multiple for Macau's gaming sector is approximately 8.9x, which it considers not expensive compared to what it views as the new normal average of 11x to 12x.

The firm issued investment ratings and target prices for six Macau gaming stocks. Stocks receiving an "Outperform" rating include GALAXY ENT, with a target price of HKD 47.4; MGM CHINA, with a target price of HKD 19.2; and SANDS CHINA LTD, with a target price of HKD 20. Additionally, CLSA gave an "Outperform" rating to Melco Resorts & Entertainment with a target price of USD 8.5. WYNN MACAU received a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 5.7, while SJM HOLDINGS was rated "Underperform" with a target price of HKD 1.7.

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