Gold prices staged a pullback after an initial advance on Thursday, settling marginally lower and retreating to defend the $4,600 per ounce threshold as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears reached a fresh equilibrium. After hitting the first weekly technical target at $4,680, the metal encountered persistent resistance near $4,700, prompting a shift into a corrective phase. Notably, the near-term chart pattern suggests that downside room beneath $4,600 appears limited, with prices likely to sustain a high-level oscillation centered around that pivotal level in the sessions ahead.
From a fundamental perspective, the unresolved question of navigability in the Strait of Hormuz continues to loom large, casting a shadow over oil prices and broader risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the latest US data released on Thursday showed initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22 came in at 203,000, slightly below the forecast of 208,000 and the prior reading of 206,000. However, with the Jackson Hole symposium drawing near, these factors offered little in the way of clear short-term guidance for gold, leaving market participants in a largely wait-and-see posture. In the near term, prices appear to be biding time for clarity from Warsh's scheduled remarks on monetary policy; a distinctly hawkish tone could extend the consolidation, whereas a softer stance might reignite another attempt at the $4,700 level within the prevailing range.
On the technical front, gold's rally has been capped at the $4,680 weekly objective, with the psychological barrier at $4,700 proving a formidable ceiling as upward momentum wanes. The metal has now faced rejection at that round figure for three consecutive sessions, forming a bearish top-pattern in the short term, which reinforces the view that the broader trend has transitioned into a phase of churning and consolidation. The daily candlestick chart shows that after losing support at the 5-day moving average early in the week, prices briefly reclaimed that level on Thursday, yet the overall corrective structure remains intact. At present, gold is oscillating within the band defined by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, roughly spanning the $4,625-$4,550 region, while the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel has shifted upward from the $4,500 handle, establishing that zone as a crucial support area. All told, gold continues to trade inside the broader uptrend channel, but having touched the upper boundary, it has pivoted from a one-way rally into a sideways correction, with the immediate focus set on the $4,550-$4,635 range.
Silver, by contrast, is exhibiting signs of catching up with gold's earlier gains. Based on an analysis of the medium-term trajectory, the white metal's overall uptrend remains intact, with the intermediate technical objective still anchored near the $80 level. That said, since launching from the $54.7 low in mid-July, silver has completed three distinct waves of advance and is now once again entrenched in a sideways drift. The metal faces dual resistance in the near term from the $70 mark and the mid-June high at $71.5, with the initial consolidation band likely to hold between $67 and $70. A breakout on the upside would open the door for a challenge of the confluence zone around $71.5-$72, where the upper Bollinger Band aligns with that earlier peak. In summary, within the recent sideways motion, silver has displayed relative strength compared to gold, and after this period of consolidation, it retains the potential to push higher toward its medium-term price objective.
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