Data collected over the past 24 hours indicates that the average retail prices for major Chinese baijiu brands showed divergent trends on April 1st, although the overall market demonstrated significant strength. The official price increase for Feitian Moutai quickly impacted the retail market, leading to a notable rise in the overall price benchmark on the first trading day following the announcement. If one bottle of each major brand were sold as a bundle, the total price today would be 9,954 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan from the previous day, reaching a new high for the past 12 days.
Among the 11 major baijiu products tracked, five experienced price increases, four decreased, and two remained unchanged. For the gainers, Feitian Moutai led the advance, rising significantly by 30 yuan per bottle, driven by Kweichow Moutai's official price hike, after having already increased by 10 yuan per bottle the previous day. Gujiao 1573 increased by 5 yuan per bottle. Premium Moutai rose by 3 yuan per bottle, setting another one-month high. Wuliangye普五八代 and Fenjiu showed modest gains of 2 yuan and 1 yuan per bottle, respectively. Among the decliners, Qinghualang saw the largest drop, falling by 6 yuan per bottle. Gujing贡古20 decreased by 5 yuan per bottle. Wuliangye 1618 and Xijiu Junpin both declined by 2 yuan per bottle. Prices for Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged from the previous day.
The daily data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to authorized distributors, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw data consists of actual transaction prices from the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable information on the market prices of well-known baijiu brands. Since the official i-Moutai platform began selling Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 1,539 yuan per bottle early on the 31st) and started sales of Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9th, the influence of this new sales channel on the average retail prices of these two products has become increasingly apparent. The daily published prices are calculated using a weighting based on actual transaction volumes, and the verifiable prices from this channel have been incorporated into the calculations for the two products' retail averages.
Regarding stock analysis for the baijiu sector, an analysis report points out that Kweichow Moutai's announcement of a price increase for Feitian Moutai demonstrates the company's confidence in improving demand, which is expected to boost industry sentiment and lead to a valuation reassessment. Kweichow Moutai announced on March 30th that, effective March 31st, the distributor contract price for Feitian 53% vol 500ml Moutai would be raised by 8.6% to 1,269 yuan per bottle, and the direct retail price would be increased by 2.7% to 1,539 yuan per bottle. Against the backdrop of a weak recovery in government and business demand for baijiu, the leading company's decision to initiate a price increase is projected to contribute approximately 2% to its 2026 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders. This adjustment marks the first retail guidance price increase since late 2017, with the distributor price hike being larger than the direct retail increase, which helps maintain Feitian Moutai's price structure. The analysis suggests that the company's current focus on market-oriented reforms, through adjustments to product and channel quotas to promote supply-demand balance, along with increasing certainty of healthy and sustainable profit growth, makes a valuation recovery likely. The analysis forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to increase by +3%/+2%/+9% year-on-year, respectively. Based on a 2026 PE ratio of 25x, a reasonable value estimate is 1,810.45 yuan per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
Comments