According to the latest spot market data released on April 30, 2026, the average market price for domestic battery-grade nickel sulfate was reported at 34,000 yuan per tonne, with a price range of 33,800 to 34,200 yuan per tonne. This represents an increase of 250 yuan from the previous trading day, a single-day gain of approximately 0.74%.
From the supply side, a policy storm of "resource nationalism," led by Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, is systematically reshaping the cost curve and supply structure of nickel sulfate from the source. Recently, the Indonesian government significantly reduced nickel mining quotas, with a particularly sharp cut for the world's largest single nickel mine. This drastic reduction directly caps the global supply of nickel ore, leading to continued tightness in the supply of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), a core raw material for battery-grade nickel sulfate. The discount coefficient for MHP has been raised to a high level, significantly increasing raw material costs for smelters. Furthermore, Indonesia has officially implemented a revised formula for calculating the benchmark price of nickel ore, substantially increasing the correction factor for low-grade ore and adding pricing for associated elements like cobalt and iron. This move will further elevate the tax base and actual cost of nickel ore. Domestically, although total nickel sulfate production capacity is expected to maintain growth, the rate of capacity expansion has slowed to single digits. The industry is entering a phase of optimizing existing capacity, and high costs for imported raw materials severely constrain the release of effective supply.
On the demand side, the market shows a stark divergence between "long-term growth certainty" and "short-term procurement weakness." In the long term, the trend towards higher nickel content in new energy vehicles is a definite engine for nickel sulfate demand. Domestic production of power lithium batteries is expected to maintain rapid growth within the year, with a high proportion being ternary lithium batteries, which will drive considerable growth in nickel sulfate demand. However, short-term reality is less robust. Downstream ternary precursor companies, due to weakened expectations for end-user demand, have significantly reduced their external purchases of nickel sulfate. Buyers are adopting a firm stance on pushing down prices, putting pressure on the actual transaction focus in the market and maintaining an overall pattern of production based on sales. This situation of "strong production but weak procurement" makes the pass-through of cost increases to downstream sectors difficult. Nevertheless, approaching the holiday, concentrated pre-holiday stockpiling demand from some companies has provided temporary bottom support for prices.
The policy environment is profoundly reshaping the competitive landscape of the global nickel sulfate supply chain from both ends: resource country controls and green barriers in consumer countries. Beyond Indonesia's quota and tax policies, green trade barriers like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) add carbon costs to products including nickel sulfate, forcing producers to accelerate low-carbon transitions. Domestic policies focus on industrial upgrading and resource security, with relevant policies explicitly calling for improved supply capacity for critical resources like nickel. Simultaneously, increasingly stringent environmental policies raise industry entry barriers and accelerate the phase-out of outdated capacity. The combined effect of these policies makes the advantages of leading companies with upstream resource security, integrated operations, and green production capabilities increasingly evident.
From a broader industrial and market perspective, bullish and bearish factors are intensely intertwined, with prices oscillating widely between solid cost support and weak short-term realities as they search for direction. On one hand, authoritative institutions predict that the global nickel market's oversupply and loose conditions are expected to persist for the year, with high visible inventories posing a practical constraint on price increases. On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policy remains the biggest variable affecting the annual supply-demand balance; if policy enforcement exceeds expectations, it could completely reverse the surplus outlook. Additionally, recent domestic manufacturing activity has maintained an expansionary trend, with manufacturing confidence stabilizing and recovering, leading to improved order expectations for the downstream new energy industry chain. Meanwhile, diverging monetary policies among major economies are amplifying exchange rate fluctuations, enhancing the relative price advantage of US dollar-denominated commodities.
In summary, the recent counter-trend rise in nickel sulfate prices results from the resonance of multiple factors: a solid "policy cost floor," pre-holiday stocking demand, and improved macroeconomic sentiment. Short-term prices may maintain a relatively strong, volatile pattern influenced by downstream procurement rhythms, specific news on Indonesian policy enforcement, and macroeconomic sentiment. However, underpinned by the long-term trend of higher nickel content in new energy vehicles, the normalization of policy disruptions in global resource countries, and the impetus for industrial upgrading from green trade barriers, the volatility center for nickel sulfate market prices has been systematically elevated. Leading enterprises with stable nickel resource supply (especially those with integrated operations in Indonesia), mastery of green, low-carbon production processes, and deep ties to high-end battery customers will continue to benefit in this market phase defined by cost restructuring. Companies lacking resource security and cost advantages will face significant pressure.
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