On August 10, 2026, a product tanker was anchored off Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz. A fierce debate is raging in the crude market: is passage through the strategic waterway far smoother than most assume? The prevailing view has been that this critical chokepoint is effectively closed to tanker traffic, with Iran reportedly firing on dozens of vessels attempting the transit. Maritime tracking firms, combining transponder signals and satellite imagery, show a sharp drop in transit attempts, while global oil inventories continue to dwindle.
However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a starkly different narrative last week: the strait remains open, with oil flows significantly exceeding market expectations. He points to firsthand intelligence from US naval patrols escorting vessels in and out of the strait against hostile attacks. The US Navy has provided the Department of Energy with detailed data on vessel transit times and ship identification. A spokesperson for the Department stated, "Through coordination with the US military, the Department of Energy holds the most authoritative available data on the export of oil and refined products from the Arabian Gulf."
The Trump administration has a track record of using public statements to steer oil prices lower. President Donald Trump repeatedly asserts US control over the Strait of Hormuz and frequently hints at an imminent US-Iran deal. Secretary Wright also maintains that the US is ensuring sufficient oil reaches global demand centers. Despite these strong official claims, Wall Street analysts have largely relied on third-party shipping data, inventory statistics, and other indicators. But that dynamic might be shifting. For the first time since the conflict began, some analysts are cautiously considering the possibility that the US government's assessment of the oil market is accurate.
Market Shrouded in Confusion
Wright stated that the seven-day average of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to 9 million barrels per day. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, points out this directly contradicts Iran's claim of a blockade and the shipping data showing flows at half that volume. "It's becoming increasingly difficult to ascertain the actual volume of oil leaving the Gulf region," Hussain said. "The completely contradictory statements from US and Iranian officials have made the market situation even more opaque."
Wall Street analysts, relying on data from shipping trackers like Kpler and Windward Intelligence, along with various metrics, estimate only about 4 million barrels per day are being moved by tanker out of the Persian Gulf. Tracking firms calculate that Middle Eastern countries are also diverting roughly 7 million barrels per day via pipelines bypassing the strait, putting total outflows around 11-12 million barrels per day. This represents a significant drop compared to the region's pre-conflict export average of 20 million barrels per day. Wright, however, claims that on August 8, total Gulf oil outflows surpassed the 20 million barrel mark.
Kpler defends its methodology, noting it operates 13,000 proprietary signal receivers across 190 countries, tracks 350,000 vessels with position updates every five minutes, and runs its own low-orbit satellite constellation. Matt Smith, Kpler's head of commodities research, admitted, "There is a massive, irreconcilable gap between the data we observe and the figures released by the Secretary." Other services like Windward Intelligence use satellite imagery and AI to track vessels even with transponders switched off, enabling continuous monitoring of the shadow fleet that deliberately conceals its movements. Kpler also provides estimates for this shadow fleet's volume.
On the day Wright claims 20 million barrels left the Gulf, both Kpler and Windward data showed only about 5 vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, over 100 ships transited daily. Such a small number of vessels could not possibly transport that volume of crude. Nevertheless, Hussain concedes the market's current picture is likely incomplete. In recent weeks, Iranian attacks on transiting ships have escalated significantly, and their Houthi allies have intensified strikes in the Red Sea. More vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are attempting to conceal their positions and cargo to avoid attack. Kpler data shows that nearly half of recent Hormuz transits have been dark voyages, up from just one-eighth a month ago.
The Department of Energy believes tracking firms still cannot capture all hidden capacity. Hussain suggests that if slow-moving tankers re-enable their transponders after leaving dangerous waters, the market might realize that actual Gulf exports are much higher than previously estimated. Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, told CNN he is willing to consider the DOE's data with an open mind. "The US is indeed facilitating a substantial volume of oil through the strait; Iran hasn't cut off everything," he said. "Given the general skepticism towards this administration, the most appropriate stance might be 'trust but verify'." He added, "The Secretary's numbers could be plausible."
Why This Data Matters
Wall Street has already acknowledged underestimating the oil flowing through the strait. Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's global head of commodities strategy, said in June that relatively stable prices prompted her to reassess the scale of Persian Gulf crude exports, suggesting a significant volume of oil was being moved by tankers with disabled transponders, a flow that had long gone unrecorded. JPMorgan uses Kpler shipping data as one of its sources for assessing supply and demand. The market's general inclination to believe the Trump administration's signals, hoping for a swift resolution and continued US military protection of oil flows, is why prices haven't reached the extreme highs typical of a severe supply shock.
Hussain argues that more than the precise flow numbers, this data discrepancy impacts market stability. Various estimates show global crude inventories have fallen by 1.5 to 1.9 billion barrels since the conflict began. The massive pre-war stockpile has prevented an energy catastrophe during the supply crunch. While the market remains in a supply deficit, the more oil that flows through the strait, the further the market is from the critical point of exhausting its inventories. If stockpiles hit bottom, global supply faces a severe crisis. "The market cannot draw down inventories indefinitely," Pickering stated. "Eventually, the reserves will run dry."
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