In addition to competition from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk faces a more significant challenge as the core patent for semaglutide has expired in several countries, including China, paving the way for a wave of generic versions to enter these markets.
As more GLP-1-based weight-loss drugs become available, competition is intensifying. However, Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar believes the weight-loss drug market is so vast that the pharmaceutical industry has only scratched the surface.
Ahead of next week's Obesity Medicine Association annual meeting, Doustdar stated in a media interview that current offerings from companies like Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and several U.S. combination drug producers collectively meet only 10% to 15% of the demand from obese patients.
Doustdar's comments come as competition between Novo Nordisk and rival Eli Lilly extends into the oral formulation segment. Investor concerns over potential market share erosion for Novo Nordisk's semaglutide have contributed to a nearly 30% decline in the company's stock price year-to-date, reducing its market capitalization to under $130 billion.
In January, Novo Nordisk launched its oral semaglutide weight-loss drug in the U.S. market. According to the latest data disclosed by the company, this oral medication has already generated over 600,000 prescriptions.
UBS Group estimates that by 2026, Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide could collectively generate approximately $5 billion in revenue.
A battle for dominance in the GLP-1 drug market is set to unfold between the two companies. Novo Nordisk is expected to present indirect treatment comparison data at this year's Obesity Medicine Association meeting, comparing its oral semaglutide with Eli Lilly's newly approved oral weight-loss drug, Orforglipron.
Beyond competition from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk's greater challenge lies in the expiration of semaglutide's core patent in markets like China, which will likely lead to an influx of generic alternatives. In India, at least 10 generic versions of semaglutide have already been launched, while in China, over 10 companies are in late-stage clinical development or have submitted applications for generic semaglutide approval.
Emil Larsen, Vice President of Global Operations at Novo Nordisk, acknowledged that markets such as India will see increasing crowding in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug segment. He emphasized that in competing with generics, Novo Nordisk's key strategy is to ensure product quality while reducing prices.
Larsen also stressed the importance of improving drug accessibility in the vast weight-loss market. He noted that the number of patients treated with Novo Nordisk's weight-loss products in Denmark even exceeds the number treated in India, the world’s most populous country.
According to World Obesity Day statistics, obesity has become a global health crisis, with over 1 billion people affected worldwide. Approximately 300 million obese individuals reside in China and the United States alone. By 2035, the global population of obese and overweight people is projected to reach 4 billion.
Long-term, analysts believe oral medications will expand the reach of obesity treatment. Morningstar estimates that by 2034, oral weight-loss drugs could account for about one-third of the global weight-loss drug market, valued at $180 billion. Pharmaceutical business intelligence firm Evaluate projects that combined sales of oral weight-loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could reach $25 billion by 2030.
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