Warren Buffett, speaking in an exclusive interview, stated that the current environment is not ideal for deploying capital, with the real buying opportunity arriving only when market panic reaches a point where "no one answers the phone." The interview took place on Saturday, May 2nd, on the sidelines of the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
Buffett directly stated that the current market is not an ideal environment for putting cash to work. He simultaneously criticized single-day options trading as "pure gambling," emphasizing that true buying opportunities emerge only during market crashes when "no one answers the phone." Buffett admitted that the proportion of businesses he genuinely understands within the overall market is smaller than it was a decade ago. However, he stressed that while Berkshire sometimes appears inactive, it can act very swiftly at other times. This year marks Buffett's first attendance at the annual meeting purely as a spectator. At the same gathering just one year prior, he announced stepping down as CEO, handing over leadership to his successor, Greg Abel. Speculative Fever: "The Market is Like a Church with a Casino Attached" Berkshire currently holds a massive cash pile of approximately $380 billion, drawing significant market attention as to why large-scale acquisitions or investments haven't been made. Buffett responded that prices are too high and attractive targets are too few. Buffett stated: "In terms of deploying cash for Berkshire, this is not our ideal environment right now." He emphasized the company has the right management and can be selective: "Sometimes we do nothing, but sometimes we are very active." Discussing the current macro stock market environment, Buffett used a vivid analogy to describe Wall Street's speculative atmosphere: "I compare the current market to a church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and the casino. I'd say there are still more people in the church than in the casino, but the casino has become very attractive to people." Buffett pointedly remarked: "If you are buying and selling single-day options, that is not investing, nor is it speculation; it is outright gambling." Referencing a recent case where a US soldier profited using confidential information, he added: "Unless you know when we're going to invade Venezuela like that person did, no one can explain why you'd buy a one-day option. The volume of such activity is astonishing." Buffett lamented: "We have never encountered a population more gambling-oriented than now." He noted that this surge in gambling enthusiasm doesn't necessarily mean a market crash is imminent, but it can lead to many asset prices remaining elevated for an extended period. The Real Buying Opportunity: "When No One Else Answers the Phone" Regarding Berkshire's roughly $380 billion cash reserve, Buffett admitted the investment climate is unfavorable, with high market prices being a key reason for his inactivity. He also conceded that, with age, the share of industries he deeply understands has diminished compared to ten years ago—he no longer expects to have an edge in areas where younger generations, raised with new technologies, excel. Nevertheless, he emphasized Berkshire's ability to make quick decisions and handle transactions of any size, while waiting for the right moment. Buffett claimed: "The most likely time to buy is when everyone else isn't answering the phone." Reflecting on his 60-year career, Buffett said truly "juicy" years for investing might number only about five. He recalled the reality of Wall Street during crashes: "Everyone brags about their great trading desks. But when the market crashes, try calling them—they don't answer. Even if they do, bids and offers come with conditions, spreads are huge... It feels like walking into a slaughterhouse; you won't want a hot dog for a while." Regarding potential "black swan" events that could cause a crash, Buffett maintained his characteristic equanimity. He said: "The things people talk about and worry about usually don't happen. It's the unexpected black swans that truly shake the market." But he stressed: "Worrying about them is useless. We just need to be aware." The Ultimate Weapon Against Inflation and AI Risks When asked about Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Buffett clearly stated: "I feel more secure when he is there." He emphasized that runaway inflation is one of the most severe threats any economy can face, citing numerous historical examples where countries paid a heavy price. Addressing the current inflation environment persistently above 3%, Buffett recalled the era of high inflation under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. He pointed out that once trust in a currency is lost, it becomes a tragedy for many people. Facing inflation, while Berkshire cannot control macro interest rates, Buffett reiterated his classic micro-level defense logic: "If you are the best doctor in town, or the best lawyer in town, you will make money in any economic environment." Beyond macroeconomics, Buffett also expressed deep concern about AI deepfake technology during the interview, noting a realistic fake video of him had even appeared. "This is scary. It's especially scary when you have around nine countries with nuclear weapons and people are developing this kind of technology," he said, comparing the potential for believing fake information to the panic caused by the classic "War of the Worlds" radio broadcast. Final Message to Shareholders: Follow the "Golden Rule" When asked for a message to long-term shareholders and partners, Buffett avoided investment strategy, turning instead to life philosophy. He said: "The number one rule I give them is the Golden Rule—treat others as you would want to be treated." "If the whole world followed this Golden Rule, society would be immensely better," Buffett said with a smile. "It applies to everything from parenting to being a boss. It costs you nothing. In fact, it buys you better treatment from others. In a sense, it's an extremely 'selfish' thing to do, but I've never seen anyone who lives by this rule who is unhappy."
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