Rubber: Increased volatility, wide-range oscillation. On Monday, domestic all-latex rubber traded at 18,850 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 compound rubber stood at 18,580 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton day-on-day.
On the raw material side, Thai latex closed at 82.50 baht/kg, up 2.00 baht/kg from the prior day, while Thai cup lump closed at 76.50 baht/kg, up 1.00 baht/kg. Yunnan latex was quoted at 17.6 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg, and Hainan latex at 16.6 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg.
As of September 27, 2026, total natural rubber bonded and general trade inventory in Qingdao stood at 575,200 tons, down 10,100 tons or 1.73% from the prior period. Bonded zone inventory was 58,700 tons, down 3.77%, while general trade inventory was 516,500 tons, down 1.49%. Inbound rates at Qingdao sample bonded warehouses fell 1.51 percentage points and outbound rates dropped 9.73 percentage points; general trade warehouse inbound rates fell 0.59 percentage points and outbound rates fell 0.82 percentage points.
View: As time passes, rainfall in the more northerly production areas of Southeast Asia, represented by northeastern Thailand, has declined month-on-month, and the length of the rainy season has not exceeded expectations so far. The impact of rainfall on supply may ease marginally, though easing supply constraints does not equal a full release of supply. On the demand side, with domestic holidays approaching, downstream production activity is slowing seasonally, and the month-on-month decline in finished goods inventory may reflect a genuinely weakening sales segment. From a balance sheet perspective, while there is no clear move toward tightness, excess pressure is likewise likely limited, and RU and NR have rebounded in the short term. Looking ahead, as the world enters a stable peak production season, the pricing range on this tapping season's cost curve will gradually be established. Absent macro risk events, RU and NR pricing levels may run higher than the same period in previous years. (Cai Wenjie, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0022568, for reference only)
PX: Supply steady, demand declining. China's industry operating rate rose 0.3 percentage point month-on-month to 80.3%, a neutral level versus the five-year average, while Asia's PX industry operating rate rose 0.8 percentage point month-on-month to 68.1%. After this round of maintenance concludes, most planned maintenance for the year will be complete, and October supply is expected to increase; however, since most units have gradually restarted and expected restarts are largely finished, future incremental supply will be limited. On the demand side, based on maintenance schedules, PTA operating rates are expected to remain stable, with limited room for further increases. PX is expected to show a balanced supply-demand state in October.
On crude oil, Trump said on the 28th that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had exchanged information through mediators. U.S. officials said Trump is willing to ease sanctions and unfreeze Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete progress" on a nuclear deal; Saudi media said Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. However, Trump denied this, and Iranian officials also said some reports were inaccurate. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia restored east-west pipeline exports, and Kpler estimated Middle East exports at 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent crude swinging sharply intraday, showing oil prices are fragile. Core interest divergences between the U.S. and Iran are large, making a short-term breakthrough difficult and negotiations likely long and arduous. More critical now is actual navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, especially whether open and stable navigation can be restored. With "dark fleet navigation sustaining supply and high costs supporting premiums," downside for oil prices is limited, and the short-term center is supported.
Overall, low inventories combined with persistently strengthening costs are the core reasons for the strong performance of the energy and chemicals sector. In the short term, oil price support remains, and the PX November main contract is expected to oscillate with oil prices, with resistance at 9500-9600. For PX 11-1, buy the spread on dips. As holidays approach, control position risk and participate cautiously. Related market news (source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): A 700,000-ton/year PX unit in East China originally planned to begin 80 days of maintenance in mid-October has now been postponed to begin maintenance in mid-November, accounting for 1.6% of national capacity. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PTA: Supply declining, demand steady. In this period, Sanfangxiang and Zhongtai restarted and raised operating rates while Yisheng cut rates, but due to unexpected short shutdowns at Dushan Energy and Ineos, the PTA industry operating rate fell 2.0 percentage points month-on-month to 70.2%, a five-year low for the same period. With inventories persistently low, the holiday approaching, some polyester plants willing to stock up, and warehouse receipts beginning to flow in, spot basis has performed strongly. On the demand side, high prices are limiting the volume and pace of terminal seasonal orders, grey fabric new orders are falling short of expectations, comprehensive operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are declining overall, and downstream firms show a clear intention to shut down or take holidays during the Mid-Autumn and National Day period. The polyester industry operating rate fell 0.3 percentage point month-on-month to 73.9%. PTA is highly likely to end its destocking phase in September and shift to restocking. Overall, low upstream raw material inventories and tight spot supply support near-term prices, with the market showing a near-strong, far-weak pattern. In the short term, oil price support remains, and the PTA January main contract is expected to oscillate with oil prices, with resistance at 6400-6500. For TA 11-1, roll buy spreads on dips. Related market news (source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): A 2.5 million-ton PTA unit in East China has resumed normal operation after the holiday; it shut down for maintenance around September 22. A 1.25 million-ton unit in South China restarted on September 27; it shut down around September 24. The affected units account for 4.1% of national capacity. Polyester unit: A 250,000-ton polyester unit in Fujian began maintenance shutdown last weekend, mainly producing polyester chips, with downstream polyester industrial yarn production also shut down simultaneously, accounting for 0.5% of national capacity. Sales: Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester filament sales were generally weak on Monday, with average estimated sales around 30-40% by 4 p.m. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
EG: Supply increasing, demand steady. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate rose 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 78.7%, of which coal-based operating rates rose 8.3 percentage points month-on-month to 84.9%. Some units began switching back from EO, with monthly switched volumes currently below 20,000 tons. Cargo arrivals in the first half of October will gradually unload and moderately supplement spot liquidity, while Saudi cargo arrivals are expected to increase noticeably during the month, with imports likely recovering above 260,000 tons. EG inventories are expected to shift from destocking to restocking in October.
Overall, driven by high profits, domestic EG operating rates are rising, while negative feedback on the demand side is emerging, with bottle chip and staple fiber producers cutting output and selling EG spot. The tight spot supply situation in September has eased somewhat versus August but remains far from clearly loose. EG costs remain supported, but supply-demand support is weakening marginally. As the EG10 contract enters its delivery month, delivery logic will dominate its price; EG10 short positions on paper face heavy covering pressure, but warehouse receipts have continued to increase recently and bearish fundamental drivers have emerged. With longs and shorts intertwined, EG10 is expected to trade in a range. EG is expected to shift to restocking in October, and the EG11 contract's own supply-demand drivers are weak, but oil price support remains, so it is expected to mainly follow oil prices, with resistance at 5500-5600. For EG 11-1, roll buy spreads on dips. Related market news (source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): Inventories: MEG port inventories in some major East China ports stand at around 120,000 tons, down 10.4% from the prior period. Units: A 400,000-ton/year coal-based EG unit in Shaanxi has completed maintenance and is restarting, expected to resume normal operation soon; the unit had been rotating maintenance on two lines since late August. A 400,000-ton/year coal-based EG unit in Inner Mongolia has recently produced off-spec material and is adjusting product specifications; the unit had been shut down for over two years. The affected units account for 2.7% of national capacity. A 380,000-ton/year MEG unit in Malaysia has successfully restarted; it shut down in early September and accounts for 0.6% of global capacity. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PF: Supply declining, demand steady. Spinning direct-spun polyester staple fiber operating rates fell 0.6 percentage point month-on-month to 68.0%, and some plants may further cut output later, with rates still trending down as supply continues to contract, though room for further declines in staple fiber processing spreads is limited. On demand, the market has entered holiday mode and trading will further thin out; during the Mid-Autumn and National Day period, downstream firms are mostly taking holidays or cutting output, and polyester yarn plant operating rates fell 0.3 percentage point month-on-month to 47.3%. Overall, with more staple fiber production cuts, supply-demand conditions will improve month-on-month. Short-term oil price support remains, and the PF November contract is expected to trade in a range, with resistance at 8400-8500. Related market news (source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): A 200,000-ton direct-spun staple fiber plant in Anhui began maintenance shutdown on September 28, expected to restart in late October, accounting for 2.0% of national capacity. Sales: Direct-spun staple fiber plant sales on Monday were mixed, with average sales at around 72% as of 3 p.m. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PR: Supply steady, demand declining. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate fell 0.2 percentage point month-on-month to 57.3%, a five-year low, with September output expected to hit a new low for the year. Unplanned production cuts may intensify further, but actual supply contraction can only slow the pace at which spot processing spreads are further compressed. On demand, domestic peak-season order procurement has ended, the beverage and other industries are gradually entering the traditional off-season, demand support is weakening, and downstream buying is mainly small hand-to-mouth restocking. Overall, with proactive supply cuts, bottle chip fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. Short-term oil price support remains, and the PR November main contract is expected to trade in a range, with resistance at 8300-8400. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
Polyolefins: Watch negotiation progress in the short term. As of the September 28 daytime close, the plastic main L2701 contract settled at 8,202 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton daily, and the polypropylene main PP2701 contract settled at 8,595 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton daily. With oil prices previously high, polyolefins followed gains relatively weakly and profit recovery was slow. Domestic polymerization margins are low to neutral, actual operating rate recovery is weak, and overall supply remains low. On demand, domestic downstream operating rates are improving seasonally, but the overall increase is insufficient, and high raw material prices provide little incentive for restocking at elevated levels. Short-term oil price博弈 remains strong, giving polyolefins a firm cost guide; watch oil price direction amid negotiation expectations and reality, and stay on the sidelines. View: Short-term wide-range oscillation, watch cost guidance; L2701 reference range 7600-8400 yuan/ton, PP2701 reference range 8000-8800 yuan/ton. (Ouyang Yuke, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023259)
Caustic soda: The main SH2611 contract fell 38 yuan/ton daily to 1,829 yuan/ton. In Shandong, mainstream 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda traded at 605-720 yuan/ton, stable versus the prior workday average. A large local alumina plant's liquid caustic procurement price was 570 yuan/ton. Shandong 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda mainstream traded at 990-1030 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the prior workday average. Shandong demand is flat, downstream buying is mainly hand-to-mouth, chlor-alkali plant operations changed little, and shipment pressure persists, keeping 32% liquid caustic prices stable; 50% liquid caustic demand is lukewarm, most chlor-alkali plants ship steadily, and market prices are stable. Recently, caustic soda supply-side operating rates rebounded narrowly to 78.7%, with new capacity continuing to come online in Q4, leaving supply elasticity intact. On demand, alumina operations are basically stable, non-aluminum buying is mainly hand-to-mouth, the "Golden September and Silver October" improvement is limited, and exports are weak. Liquid caustic plant inventories remain high year-on-year, chlor-alkali integrated profit improvement is limited, and producers' willingness to cut output is growing. Looking ahead, prices have cost support below and are capped by high inventories above, so short-term oscillation is likely, but medium- to long-term new capacity startup pressure will weigh on valuations and limit upside. Strategy: Wide-range oscillation; main SH2611 reference range 1800-2000 yuan/ton. (Ouyang Yuke, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023259)
PVC: As of the September 28, 2026 daytime close, the main V2701 contract fell 25 yuan/ton daily to 4,773 yuan/ton. On costs, Wuhai calcium carbide was quoted at 2,725 yuan/ton, supported by semi-coke and production restrictions; ethylene-based raw materials are high but expected to retreat recently, and deep losses form a cost floor. On supply, the operating rate is about 66.7%, still low, but maintenance is reduced in September-October and units are restarting, so supply is recovering marginally. Demand lacks peak-season strength, with downstream operating rates only around 40%, domestic demand down 3%-5% year-on-year, and clear drag from property; social inventory continues to fall month-on-month but is high year-on-year. Overall, costs provide a floor while supply-demand is weak; watch further calcium carbide price moves. Strategy: Wide-range oscillation; main V2701 reference range 4600-5000 yuan/ton. Sina partner platform China Securities Co., Ltd. futures account opening, safe and secure.
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