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Rubber: The pre-holiday consolidation pattern continues. On Tuesday, domestic whole milk rubber was priced at 18,450 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan from the previous day; Thai 20-grademixed rubber was at 18,180 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan day-on-day. On the raw material side, Thai latex closed at 80.00 baht per kilogram yesterday, flat from the prior day, while Thai cup rubber settled at 73.70 baht per kilogram, up 0.20 baht. Yunnan latex was quoted at 17.2 yuan per kilogram and Hainan latex at 16.3 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day. As of September 20, 2026, combined bonded and general trade rubber inventory in Qingdao stood at 585,400 tons, down 17,800 tons or 2.96% from the prior period. Bonded warehouse inventory fell 12.56% to 61,000 tons, while general trade inventory decreased 1.70% to 524,300 tons. The inbound rate at Qingdao natural rubber bonded warehouses increased by 3.16 percentage points, with outbound rates up 9.54 percentage points; general trade warehouses saw inbound rates rise by 0.94 percentage points and outbound rates by 0.50 percentage points. Outlook: As time progresses, rainfall in northern production areas represented by northeastern Thailand has declined month-on-month, with the rainy season length not yet exceeding expectations. The impact of rainfall on supply may ease marginally, though easing restrictions does not equate to full supply release. On the demand side, with domestic holidays approaching, downstream production activity is seasonally slowing, and the month-on-month decline in finished product inventories may reflect actual sales not weakening significantly. The balance sheet feedback remains unchanged. After the recent high premium correction, RU&NR face short-term consolidation. Looking ahead, as this round of market peaks, the balance sheet remains similar. Due to demand-side support, bottom pricing may stay firm. If sharp short-term pullbacks occur approaching mid-August or late-July levels, participating in rebound or reversal trades could still carry relatively lower risk. (Cai Wenjie, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0022568, for reference only)
PX: Supply and demand are both increasing. China's industry operating rate rose 3.2 percentage points to 80.0%, reaching the five-year neutral level. Asian PX operating rates increased 1.5 percentage points to 67.3%. After this round of maintenance, most planned turnarounds for the year will be completed. September PX operating rates are expected to improve, adding supply pressure. On the demand side, PTA operating rates are expected to remain stable with limited room for further increases based on maintenance schedules. Inventory drawdown in September-October is expected to slow. U.S. President Trump reiterated at the 81st UN General Assembly that Washington would reach an agreement with Iran after the November midterm elections. Iran stated it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. pressure is lifted, raising expectations for diplomatic engagement. Brent crude fell to around $95 per barrel. Although Trump's meeting with Gulf leaders during the UNGA sent positive signals on Iran, easing geopolitical risk premiums, this is likely short-term sentiment relief rather than long-term risk resolution. Overall, low inventories combined with strengthening costs are the core drivers of strong energy and chemical sector performance. While conflicts persist, supply-side contradictions remain unresolved, suggesting buying on pullbacks for chemical products. Short-term geopolitical premiums are retreating, and the PX November main contract is expected to correct with oil prices, with support at 8800-9000. PX11-1 positive spread on dips. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PTA: Supply is increasing while demand decreases. Yisheng Dahua, Baihong, and Weilong Chemical have resumed normal operations, while Zhongtai has a brief shutdown. PTA operating rates increased 2.3 percentage points to 72.2%, still at five-year lows. Sellable cargo increased while spot basis fell. On the demand side, high prices are limiting seasonal order volumes and pace, with gray fabric new orders lagging expectations. Comprehensive operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang saw localized declines. Downstream enterprises show clear intent to suspend production during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with polyester operating rates down 0.3 percentage points to 74.2%. PTA is likely to end destocking in September and shift to accumulation. Overall, upstream feedstock low inventories and tight spot supply support near-month prices, creating a near-strong far-weak pattern. In the short term, oil's strength stems more from fundamentals than geopolitical risk alone. Downstream negative feedback has limited price impact, and prices can only passively follow gains until upstream supply contradictions resolve. With short-term geopolitical premiums retreating, the PTA January main contract is expected to correct with oil, with support at 5900-6100. TA10-1 and TA11-1 rolling positive spreads on dips. Related market news (Source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): A 1.2 million-ton PTA unit in the northwest is restarting, expected to produce shortly after maintenance in mid-September; a 2.5 million-ton unit in South China has reduced to 90% load with potential further cuts to 80%; a 2.5 million-ton unit in East China experienced temporary issues affecting 3-4 days. Units involved represent 6.7% of national capacity. Sales: Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester filament sales were weak Tuesday, averaging below 30% by 3:45 PM. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
EG: Supply is rising while demand falls. Domestic ethylene glycol operating rates increased 2.2 percentage points to 77.2%, with syngas-based rates up 6.6 percentage points to 77.5%. Sanjiang Petrochemical is conducting EO back-switching, while other units operate normally with limited conversion so far. Actual import supply increases for Chinese ethylene glycol will only reflect after mid-October. Social inventory destocking will continue into Q3. Overall, high profit incentives have boosted domestic EG operating rates. Meanwhile, downstream negative feedback is emerging, with bottle chips and staple fiber cutting production and selling EG spot. September's tight spot supply has eased compared to August but remains far from loose. Both supply-demand fundamentals and cost-side factors are currently firm. With delivery month approaching, delivery logic will dominate. Recent rising warehouse receipts combined with retreating geopolitical premiums suggest the EG October contract will correct with oil, with support at 5600-5700. Related market news (Source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): A 360,000-ton-per-year EG unit in Taiwan, China halted operations due to issues, expected to last until month-end, representing 0.6% of national capacity. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PF: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Direct-spun polyester staple fiber operating rates for spinning fell 1.8 percentage points to 68.6%, with further reductions possible. As supply contracts, operating rates may continue declining, though staple fiber processing margins have limited room to fall further. On demand, autumn/winter bulk orders have not yet arrived. Downstream acceptance of high-priced materials is low, with cautious restocking intentions. Short-term demand improvement is unlikely, and polyester yarn mill operating rates fell 0.9 percentage points to 47.6%, continuing their decline. Overall, increased staple fiber production cuts will improve supply-demand fundamentals month-on-month. Cost-side performance is strong, and downstream negative feedback has limited price impact, with prices passively following gains until upstream supply contradictions resolve. However, short-term oil prices carry correction risk. The PF November contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 7900-8100. PF11-1 positive spread on dips. Related market news (Source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): Direct-spun polyester staple fiber plant sales were mixed Tuesday, averaging 38% by 3:00 PM. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
PR: Supply is increasing while demand falls. Bottle chip operating rates rose 1.8 percentage points to 57.5%, a five-year low. September output is expected to hit a yearly low, with unplanned production cuts likely intensifying. Spot processing margin recovery will depend mainly on actual supply contraction. On demand, domestic peak-season orders have concluded. Beverage and other industries are entering traditional off-season, weakening demand support, with downstream purchasing limited to essential replenishment. Overall, proactive supply cuts should marginally improve bottle chip fundamentals. Cost-side performance is strong with limited downstream negative feedback impact, prices passively following gains until upstream contradictions resolve. Short-term oil correction risk exists. The PR November main contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 7800-8000. PR11-1 positive spread on dips. Related market news (Source: Chemical Fiber Information Network): An East China unit producing 750,000 tons per year of polyester bottle chips plans maintenance shutdown at end-September for approximately one-and-a-half months, representing 3.4% of national capacity. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0021407, for reference only)
Soda Ash: Tuesday saw soda ash futures rally then retreat. Spot prices fell slightly, with Shahe heavy soda quoted at 985 yuan per ton (-3). Tuesday's commodity market showed mixed performance. Last week's soda ash maintenance increased, with output down 14,000 tons to 669,000 tons. Shandong Haitian began maintenance last Monday, expected to last 10 days; Xuzhou Fengcheng started maintenance this Monday, expected to last 30 days. Recent soda ash downstream demand is weak with moderate purchasing enthusiasm. Latest alkali plant inventory fell 58,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.831 million tons, while delivery warehouse inventory held steady at 577,000 tons. Last week saw one float glass furnace ignited (Changxing Kibing, 600T/D) and one photovoltaic glass furnace undergo cold repair (Chenzhou Kibing PV, 1200T/D); this week one float glass furnace is in cold repair (Xianning Nanbo, 700T/D). Combined daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is declining, heavy alkali demand is weak, light alkali demand is stable-weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is subdued. August soda ash imports fell to 500 tons while exports rose slightly to 284,600 tons. Macro-wise, domestic real estate sales data rose week-on-week, approaching year-ago levels; overseas macro impact is neutral (dollar strength, easing geopolitical concerns); domestic macro is bearish (real estate industry declining, weak domestic demand). Overall, short-term soda ash demand is weak with high inventory pressuring prices, maintaining weak consolidation. Warehouse receipts increased by 1,576 to 1,576 on Tuesday. Short-term soda ash futures are weakly consolidating, with SA2701 intraday reference at 1010-1030. (Hu Peng, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0019445, for reference only)
Glass: Tuesday saw modest gains in glass futures with spot prices stable. North China glass market price was 990 yuan per ton (+0), Central China at 1,010 yuan per ton (+0). Shahe production-sales ratio stood at 94%, Hubei at 120%, both rising. Short-term glass fundamentals are weak on both supply and demand sides with low valuations. Last week saw slight declines in glass operating rates and output, decent downstream purchasing, and declining inventories. Latest glass inventory fell 46,000 tons to 3.493 million tons, up 14.7% year-on-year. One float furnace ignited last week (Changxing Kibing, 600T/D), one in cold repair this week (Xianning Nanbo, 700T/D). Daily glass melt fluctuates narrowly, currently at 142,315 tons per day, down approximately 11.5% year-on-year. January-August domestic building completion area fell 23.7% year-on-year (slightly wider decline). Recent real estate sales rose week-on-week, approaching year-ago levels. Latest (mid-September) glass deep-processing orders fell 0.2 days to 10.1 days, down 3.9% year-on-year. Short-term glass supply fluctuates narrowly, demand rises seasonally but declines year-on-year. Current valuations are low; monitor supply changes. Short-term glass futures range-bound, FG2701 intraday reference at 910-940. (Hu Peng, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0019445, for reference only)
Polyolefins: Near-term attention on negotiation progress. As of September 22 day-session close, plastics main L2701 settled at 8,243 yuan per ton (down 13 yuan day-on-day), polypropylene main PP2701 closed at 8,582 yuan per ton (up 11 yuan). Renewed US-Iran negotiation headlines pushed oil prices from highs, weakening cost support. Watch actual negotiation progress. Previously, with oil, polyolefins lagged gains, profit recovery was slow, and domestic polymerization margins were moderately low, limiting actual operating rate recovery. Overall supply remains at low levels. On demand, domestic downstream operating rates are seasonally improving but insufficient in magnitude, with weak high-level restocking driven by high feedstock prices. Near-term, focus on negotiation expectations versus reality for oil price direction. Maintain wait-and-see stance. View: Short-term firm, L2701 reference range 7800-8600 yuan per ton, PP2701 reference range 8200-9000 yuan per ton. (Ouyang Yuke, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023259)
Caustic Soda: Main SH2611 contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 1,872 yuan. In Shandong, mainstream 32% ionic membrane caustic soda transaction prices were 605-720 yuan per ton, stable from the previous working day average. A major local alumina plant's liquid caustic soda purchase price executed at 570 yuan per ton. Shandong 50% ionic membrane caustic soda mainstream prices were 970-1,030 yuan per ton, stable. Shandong downstream demand is lackluster with moderate purchasing, chlorine-alkali enterprises face some pressure, 32% prices stable; 50% demand tepid with manageable pressure, prices steady. Recent caustic soda supply operating rates rebounded slightly to 78.2%. New capacity from Gansu Juhua and others is gradually coming online, maintaining supply elasticity. On demand, alumina operating rates are broadly stable, non-aluminum essential purchases only, with limited "golden September silver October" improvement and weak exports. Liquid caustic soda inventories remain high year-on-year. Comprehensive chlorine-alkali profit improvement is limited, with growing willingness to cut production. Looking ahead, prices have cost support below and high inventory pressure above. Short-term may see oscillating strength, but long-term new capacity pressure will cap valuations and upside. Strategy: Wide fluctuation, main SH2611 reference range 1800-2000 yuan per ton. (Ouyang Yuke, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023259)
PVC: As of September 22 day-session close, PVC main V2701 slipped 2 yuan to 4,757 yuan per ton. On cost, Wuhai calcium carbide is supported at 2,700 yuan per ton by charcoal and production restrictions. Ethylene-based feedstock prices are high but expected to retreat, forming a cost floor at deep loss levels, though weakening coal prices are loosening support marginally. Supply operating rates are around 66%, still low, but September-October sees reduced maintenance and unit restarts, marginally increasing supply. On demand, peak season underperforms, downstream operating rates only around 40%, domestic demand down 3-5% year-on-year, with property sector dragging significantly. Social inventories fell sequentially but remain high year-on-year. Overall, cost provides a floor while supply-demand fundamentals are weak. Monitor calcium carbide price trends. Strategy: Wide fluctuation, main V2701 reference range 4600-5000 yuan per ton. (Ouyang Yuke, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023259)
Crude Oil: International oil prices retreated overnight: Brent November contracts fell 1.47%, WTI November down 2.31%. Reports indicate Saudi East-West pipeline has restarted, with informal notification to some Asian refineries that loading from Saudi's west coast ports resumes soon. Saudi export recovery eases spot supply concerns. Additionally, after Iran's foreign minister met with the U.S. president's special envoy in New York yesterday, U.S. assessments were positive. Trump also stated he does not rule out a conflict-ending agreement with Iran after November midterm elections. Geopolitical risk has moderately eased overall. Since July, increased currents in the Strait of Hormuz have seen throughput recover to around 50% of pre-conflict levels. If substantive US-Iran progress materializes and strait throughput further recovers, given Persian Gulf floating storage and global inventory levels far below June's US-Iran MOU point, Brent's downside target is around 80-85 dollars per barrel. Under limited geopolitical downgrade, Brent will maintain high-level oscillation at 90-100 dollars per barrel. Strategy: Wait and see. (Gao Mingyu, Futures Trading Advisory License: Z0023613)
Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: Yesterday, Singapore high- and low-sulfur fuel oil spot premiums fell 1.6 dollars/ton and 0.24 dollars/ton respectively. After oil declined, high- and low-sulfur crack spreads continued strengthening. Yesterday's reports of Saudi East-West pipeline restart and west coast export resumption eased oil supply concerns, although Saudi west coast ports export minimal fuel oil directly. Under limited geopolitical risk downgrade, fuel oil is expected to follow oil in weak consolidation, with limited further downside before substantive Hormuz flow recovery. Strategy: Hold long low-sulfur fuel oil crack spread positions.
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