Which Semiconductor Index Shows Strongest Offensive Capability During Rebound?

Deep News04-09

Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced, leading to a lower opening for the Shanghai Composite Index in early trading, while the semiconductor equipment sector bucked the trend and strengthened. As of 10:04 on April 9th, the Star Market Semiconductor ETF (588170) was among the top gainers in the market, rising 1.83%, and the ChinaAMC Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) gained 1.26%. Among popular individual stocks, China State Shipbuilding Corporation Special Gas Co., Ltd. (688146.SH) surged over 9%, while Jinhong Gas Co., Ltd. (688106.SH) and Zhongke Feice Technology Co., Ltd. (688361.SH) rose over 5%. Tuojing Technology (688072.SH) and Huahai Qingke (688120.SH) gained over 3%.

On the path of semiconductor investment, have you ever been torn between chasing the high volatility of the Star Market or embracing the balanced allocation of the entire industry chain? When market styles rotate, cycles reverse, and capital preferences shift, the performance differences between various indices often determine whether your return curve resembles a 'roller coaster' or a 'steady climb'.

The second part of this deep comparison of semiconductor equipment indices continues to dissect three core semiconductor indices: the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index, the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index, and the CSI Semiconductor Index. By analyzing performance data from 2023 to 2026, along with volatility, drawdown figures, and the underlying driving logic and risk factors, we will reveal their distinct 'character' and 'destiny' under different market conditions. Whether you are an aggressive or conservative investor, you can find your suitable allocation answer here.

Index performance data source: Tonghuashun iFinD, as of March 31, 2026.

The performance of these three indices indeed varied significantly across different years, reflecting market style rotations and the direct impact of index compilation rules.

In 2023, the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index recorded the highest gain (14.99%), while the other two indices posted negative returns. The reason was the overall weak market in 2023, coupled with an explosion in AI computing demand, which boosted the hard tech sector. The Star Market index, focused on the Star Market with components mostly being 'hard tech' companies and relatively low valuations for the Star Market at that time, possessed stronger rebound elasticity.

In 2024, the CSI Semiconductor Index led the pack with a significant gain (26.83%), while the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index even saw a slight decline. The market style in 2024 favored oversold rebounds and the recovery of core assets. As the broadest-based index, the CSI Semi Index includes many leading chip design companies that had previously experienced deep declines, thus benefiting most noticeably during the rebound. In contrast, the Star Market index, specialized in upstream equipment with relatively concentrated components and some stocks already at high valuations, lagged in performance.

In 2025, all three indices posted impressive gains (all exceeding 50%), with the CSI Semi Index leading at 62.33%, followed closely by the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index. This year marked a reversal in the semiconductor cycle. Driven by memory chip price increases and a surge in advanced packaging demand, upstream equipment and material segments were the first to see order recovery, boasting the strongest earnings certainty.

So far in 2026, the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index (6.51%) and the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index (5.31%) have performed well, while the CSI Semi Index has seen only a modest gain (1.04%). Entering 2026, market capital has become more selective, showing less favor towards broad-based indices with wide coverage but insufficient elasticity (like the CSI Semi), instead concentrating its offensive on the upstream equipment and material segments with the strongest logic and fastest earnings realization. This has led to the continued strength of the 'equipment/material' type indices.

In summary, the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index and the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index perform best during industry upcycles and when capital focuses on hard tech, representing more offensive-oriented choices. The CSI Semiconductor Index is suitable for allocation during broad market rallies and style shifts, offering high elasticity but also significant volatility.

Risk Resistance Data Source: Tonghuashun iFinD, as of December 31, 2025.

Looking at volatility and drawdown data, the 'temperament' and 'soft spots' of the three semiconductor equipment indices become clearer. Although they all belong to the semiconductor sector, their volatility intensity and resistance to declines differ significantly.

The data shows that the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index is undoubtedly the most volatile, with a 3-year annualized volatility as high as 39.57% and substantial drawdowns in past years. As mentioned in the previous index comparison article, this index's components are highly concentrated in the equipment and materials sub-sector on the Star Market, with a heavy bet on hard tech (e.g., very high weights for Huahai Qingke and AMEC (688012.SH)). The Star Market itself has a larger daily price fluctuation limit (20%) compared to the main board, and its components lean towards small and mid-cap growth stocks, resulting in extremely strong offensive capabilities but the weakest defensive capabilities, making it a typical high-risk, high-reward product.

The Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index shows relative stability, with the lowest annualized volatility (34.60%) and slightly better drawdown control over the past two years compared to the other two. This index covers equipment leaders from the entire market (such as NAURA (002371.SZ)). These large-cap blue-chip stocks typically offer stronger earnings certainty and better liquidity. Although it also focuses on equipment and materials, its inclusion of large-cap leaders from the main board makes its trend more stable than the pure Star Market index, with relatively better downside resistance.

As a full-industry-chain index, the CSI Semiconductor Index has moderate volatility, but it experienced the deepest decline during the 2023 industry downturn (-32.92%), likely dragged down by the inventory digestion cycle in the chip design sector at that time. However, in 2024, its drawdown control (-21.77%) was better than the other two indices. This suggests that the full-industry-chain allocation provides a certain degree of risk diversification, avoiding the problem of excessive volatility from a single sub-sector (like only equipment/materials).

Performance Attribution Summary

Based on the performance over these three years, we can summarize the underlying logic behind the gains and losses of each index, providing reference for investors to choose under different scenarios:

The Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index is the 'aggressive pioneer' in the semiconductor equipment track, sharing in the红利 of the industry upcycle but with stronger elasticity. During rallies, besides benefiting from overall strong demand in the equipment industry, its gains rely more on breakthroughs in advanced process technology, the爆发 of cutting-edge technologies like HBM, and the liquidity premium of the Star Market itself, often leading to sharper rises. During downturns, the risks are also more pronounced; if technology validation falls short of expectations, market style shifts lead to valuation compression, or Star Market liquidity tightens, its declines are typically deeper than other similar indices. Suitable for aggressive investors.

The Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index is the 'steady main force' in the semiconductor equipment track, also benefiting from equipment industry景气 but placing more emphasis on earnings certainty. Its upward momentum comes from large-scale wafer fab expansion and the cyclical reversal of memory chips. Downturns are primarily influenced by reductions in industry capital expenditure. If wafer fabs slow their equipment purchasing pace, or geopolitical issues cause raw material supply disruptions/price hikes, its performance will suffer. Suitable for investors bullish on the certainty of domestic substitution but seeking more stability than pure tech stocks.

The CSI Semiconductor Index follows a logic resonating with both macroeconomic and industry cycles. Its gains depend on the sales performance of phones/computers (consumer electronics recovery), new demand from AI, and are also influenced by market liquidity. Downturns mainly stem from weak end-demand. If the global economy weakens, reducing electronics purchases, or the industry enters a downturn, its heavyweight components could face earnings risks.

Summary and Outlook

Looking ahead, as the semiconductor industry enters the mid-phase of a new upcycle, market requirements for 'earnings delivery' will become more stringent. Investors are advised to allocate based on their own risk tolerance:

If optimistic about breakthroughs in advanced processes and the红利 of equipment localization, and able to withstand high volatility, focus on the Star Market Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index or the Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index.

If aiming to capture the beta opportunities across the entire industry brought by consumer electronics recovery, the CSI Semiconductor Index remains a choice for balanced allocation, but one must be vigilant about risks related to end-demand falling short of expectations.

Related ETFs:

ChinaAMC Star Market Semiconductor ETF (588170) and its feeder funds (Class A: 024417; Class C: 024418) track the only semiconductor equipment theme index on the Star Market, which has the highest advanced packaging exposure in the market (approx. 50%), focusing on hardcore equipment companies at the forefront of technological innovation.

ChinaAMC Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) and its feeder funds (Class A: 020356; Class C: 020357) track the CSI Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Theme Index, which has the highest semiconductor equipment exposure among market indices (approx. 63%), directly benefiting from the确定性 demand for 'pick-and-shovel' providers (equipment suppliers) driven by the global chip price surge.

Investors can trade these ETFs on stock exchanges like stocks. The main costs are brokerage commissions and fund operating fees (including a management fee of 0.5% per year and a custody fee of 0.1% per year, both deducted from the fund's assets). Subscription and redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5% when investors subscribe for or redeem fund shares.

Feeder Fund Risk Warning: As feeder funds for the target ETFs, and since the target ETFs are equity funds, these feeder funds carry higher risks and potential returns compared to hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. Feeder fund risks include tracking error risk, performance deviation risk from the target ETF, risk of the index compiler stopping service, risk of the underlying index changing, risk of component securities halting trading or defaulting, etc.

For the ChinaAMC Star Market Semiconductor ETF Class A shares, a one-time subscription fee is charged upon purchase, with no sales service fee. Front-end subscription fees: for subscription amounts < 1 million CNY, 1.0%; for 1 million CNY ≤ amount < 5 million CNY, 0.5%; for amount ≥ 5 million CNY, 1,000 CNY/transaction. Redemption fees: holding period < 7 days, 1.5%; holding period ≥ 7 days, 0%. Class C shares have no subscription fee but charge a sales service fee of 0.2% per year. Redemption fees: holding period < 7 days, 1.5%; holding period ≥ 7 days, 0%. Due to differences in fee structures, inception dates, etc., long-term performance between share classes may differ significantly. Please refer to the fund's periodic reports for details.

For the ChinaAMC Semiconductor Equipment ETF Class A shares, a one-time subscription fee is charged upon purchase, with no sales service fee. Front-end subscription fees: for subscription amounts < 1 million CNY, 1.2%; for 1 million CNY ≤ amount < 2 million CNY, 0.9%; for 2 million CNY ≤ amount < 5 million CNY, 0.6%; for amount ≥ 5 million CNY, 1,000 CNY/transaction. Redemption fees: holding period < 7 days, 1.5%; holding period ≥ 7 days, 0%. Class C shares have no subscription fee but charge a sales service fee of 0.3% per year. Redemption fees: holding period < 7 days, 1.5%; holding period ≥ 7 days, 0%. Due to differences in fee structures, inception dates, etc., long-term performance between share classes may differ significantly. Please refer to the fund's periodic reports.

Star Market Special Risk Warning: Fund assets may be invested in the Star Market and are subject to specific risks arising from differences in investment targets, market systems, and trading rules, including but not limited to the following special risks: liquidity risk, delisting risk, and stock price volatility risk.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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