May 21: In the previous trading session on Wednesday (May 20), international gold prices rebounded and closed higher, recovering the week's losses and returning to levels near the opening price. This movement was driven by former President Trump's statement that US-Iran negotiations have entered their final stage, which heightened market expectations for a potential agreement to end conflicts in the Middle East. This development pressured the US dollar index and caused crude oil prices to retreat and close lower. Consequently, gold found bullish momentum above the support of its 200-day moving average. In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain above this level, awaiting another test of resistance from the 60-day and 100-day moving averages.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,482.33 per ounce, initially rising to around $4,509 before encountering resistance and pulling back. By 11 a.m., it recorded an intraday low of $4,453.60. Subsequently, it bottomed and began a fluctuating recovery, extending into the US session. Bullish momentum continued to drive prices higher, surpassing the morning's peak to reach a daily high of $4,552.25. It ultimately stabilized and closed at $4,543.35, with a daily range of $98.65, a gain of $61.02, or 1.36%.
Looking ahead to Thursday (May 21), international gold opened with a slightly weaker bias as early-session bullish momentum faded. Following Trump's remarks about negotiations entering the final stage, he also warned that Iran would face further attacks unless it agreed to a deal. This has kept market concerns about a potential return to a stalemate, which may limit gold's rebound. Conversely, if Iran agrees to a deal, gold prices are likely to strengthen and rise again.
Although many Federal Reserve officials have leaned toward removing accommodative bias following the April FOMC meeting minutes, which could still cap gold's rally, a long-term US-Iran agreement and a resolution to strait issues would naturally ease inflation concerns and reduce expectations for Fed rate hikes. Even if rate hikes were to proceed under such circumstances, the pressure on gold would be limited.
Conversely, if the US-Iran situation remains deadlocked over the long term, gold prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a weak, sideways adjustment pattern.
In the short term, Iran has confirmed receipt of the US proposal and is reviewing it. US media reports indicate that mediators have drafted a US-Iran letter of intent aiming to initiate a 30-day negotiation period. During this time, any factors will likely have only short-term effects, with gold price movements expected to remain volatile, maintaining the recent range-bound pattern.
After the negotiations conclude, if the outcome is optimistic, gold prices may rise again. However, whether a bull market can be sustained will depend on developments regarding strait issues. Otherwise, the market may simply shift from a small range to a larger one. The decision on rate hikes will also hinge on US-Iran relations and strait issues. The primary factors influencing gold's outlook remain the passage and blockade of key straits.
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart, gold prices are trading below the 5-month moving average, indicating a weak trend. A close below the support of the 10-month moving average at $4,370 could lead to a further decline toward $4,100 or even the $3,800 level. Conversely, a close back above the 5-month moving average at $4,800 could reignite a bullish trend.
On the weekly chart, gold is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band, the 5- and 10-week moving averages, and the 30-week moving average. Technical indicators also continue to show bearish signals, suggesting a weak trend and the potential for a short-term pullback to targets near $4,380 or below $4,100. This view remains unchanged unless prices reclaim the middle Bollinger Band.
On the daily chart, after encountering resistance at the 100-day moving average, gold's overall trend has shifted lower in recent sessions, forming a new downward channel. Currently, prices have rebounded above the support of the 200-day moving average and may test resistance from the 60-day or 100-day moving averages. If the rebound fails to break through these resistance levels, there is a risk of another decline below the 200-day moving average, potentially targeting the $3,900 area. Conversely, a breakout above resistance could propel prices toward $5,000 and reopen bullish prospects.
For specific intraday trading guidance, please refer to real account information.
Preliminary intraday trading reference points are as follows. Specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on real account notifications:
Gold: Support levels to watch are near $4,500 or $4,470; resistance levels to watch are near $4,580 or $4,615. Silver: Support levels to watch are near $74.10 or $73.00; resistance levels to watch are near $77.00 or $78.80.
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