On the evening of February 20th, international gold prices surged by over 2%, reclaiming the $5,100 per ounce level. This rally was directly fueled by the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of former President Trump's tariff policies, coupled with his public statement that he was "considering limited strikes against Iran," which heightened global risk aversion. Several industry professionals indicated that the fundamental drivers supporting gold's upward trend remain intact. The ongoing challenge to the U.S. dollar's credibility is repeatedly reinforcing gold's role as a safe-haven "hard asset." They advise investors to focus on long-term trends while remaining cautious of volatility at elevated price levels.
Although the Supreme Court's ruling nullified certain tariffs, Trump promptly announced plans to impose new 10% tariffs on global goods using other legal authorities. Market participants view the uncertainty surrounding these new trade policies as spurring demand for safe-haven assets. A chief nonferrous metals analyst at a securities firm noted that the core rationale for gold's strength remains unchanged—the challenged status of the U.S. dollar means that any emerging risk event further catalyzes gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value.
Since 2026, frequent geopolitical conflicts have emerged worldwide: U.S. military involvement in Venezuela, Trump's investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair, sovereignty claims over Greenland, and potential military action against Iran. A senior executive at a multi-billion-dollar private fund recently stated that sustained optimism toward gold and other precious metals is rooted in a "monetary phenomenon." High fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe, continued money printing by major global central banks, and persistent geopolitical tensions are collectively driving demand for inflation protection and capital preservation.
Luo Zhenyu, a Hong Kong-based gold investment specialist, emphasized that deep-seated concerns about the evolving global monetary system have continued to underpin investor interest in gold since last year. In the short term, the market may experience consolidation as it builds momentum for further gains, but the long-term bullish trend remains firmly in place.
Zhu Zhigang, Vice President and Chief Gold Analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, suggested that over the long run, given the decline in U.S. dollar credibility and unabated geopolitical tensions, a significant drop in gold prices is unlikely. However, after substantial previous gains, the market also faces the risk of high volatility. Luo Zhenyu projected that gold may fluctuate around $5,000 per ounce for at least the next six months, with a subsequent target of $10,000 per ounce once this period of consolidation concludes.
The securities analyst mentioned earlier expects gold prices to continue their upward trajectory, though volatility may arise ahead of the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair. Current candidates appear divided on whether to prioritize balance sheet reduction or interest rate cuts—a sequence that could significantly influence gold’s performance.
A representative from China Molybdenum also expressed long-term confidence in gold’s price trajectory and its value as an asset, describing it as a "certain" metal category amid geopolitical instability and expectations of further Fed rate cuts.
Regarding investment strategy, the private fund executive highlighted that gold’s attractiveness as a non-credit asset is growing against the backdrop of de-dollarization trends, regularized geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing central bank purchases. High-net-worth individuals and institutions currently hold insufficient allocations to gold, making it a suitable component for diversified investment portfolios.
Luo Zhenyu advises investors to align their strategies with long-term trends rather than attempting to time short-term price swings. Zhu Zhigang recommended viewing any price dips as buying opportunities within a five-year bullish outlook, suggesting a modest allocation of 5% to 10% of household assets for long-term holding.
As the largest buyers of gold, central banks worldwide have been steadily increasing reserves to bolster their monetary credibility amid a weakening U.S. dollar. According to central bank data, China’s gold holdings reached 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, marking the 15th consecutive month of increases. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand hit a record 5,002 tons in 2025, surpassing the 5,000-ton threshold for the first time.
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