Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration behind "The Big Short," stated in a new post of his paid newsletter that "there is no way to time or predict" when the artificial intelligence bubble will burst, especially when it may still have room to expand.
Burry wrote, "Shorting is almost always a short-term trade. Typically less than a year, maybe a few years at most. Not five years, not ten."
He added, "I believe the stock market is currently in a phase where it could break out upward from an extreme-scale top, and at any moment—even today or tomorrow—it might reach a generational peak."
In the lengthy blog post, Burry addressed reader questions about his earlier writings. He argued that there is "supply-side gluttony," referring to massive data center construction, GPU orders, and multibillion-dollar commitments without genuine end-user demand—misinterpreted by investors as supply chain activity. Burry attributed much of this hype to the marketing efforts of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang.
"Even when it finally peaks, it won’t be for any specific reason," Burry later noted in the post. "Even if the reason is the AI construction bubble bursting, it might take a year or two to become apparent."
"Most of the time, it’s wise to neither short stocks nor buy put options. The most obviously overvalued stocks often have the strongest upward momentum, but their put options are prohibitively expensive."
In November, Burry launched a paid newsletter called "Cassandra Unchained," with his first post targeting NVIDIA. He likened the chipmaking giant to "the Cisco" of the AI bubble debate—referring to the company whose stock plunged over 75% during the dot-com crash.
At the end of November, NVIDIA released a report to Wall Street analysts countering some of Burry’s claims.
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