Within just one year, 42 stations were shuttered. Just when the long-distance bus industry, once swept by a nationwide closure wave, was thought to have received a "death sentence," it unexpectedly staged a successful "comeback" in 2025, unveiling a market valued at 500 billion yuan.
Since the 1980s, the majority of people across the country undertaking long-distance journeys almost invariably chose the same mode of transport—the bus. Although bus stations back then were often chaotic, sometimes even witnessing theft or robbery right outside their doors, they still saw an endless stream of passengers.
Students eagerly awaiting holidays to return home, elderly visiting relatives, and young people dreaming of making their fortune in distant cities—virtually all would pass through bus stations several times a year. It's fair to say that these stations were never short of stories or foot traffic.
Decades later, however, the situation has undergone a dramatic transformation. At some point, people gradually began using buses less and less. When someone eventually thought to take a bus after a long hiatus, a quick check on relevant platforms would reveal that their once-frequent station had quietly closed down, along with its associated routes.
Within just a few years, the familiar buses that countless people had grown up with, carriers of so many memories, seemed to vanish overnight. As this reality set in, reports of stations closing in various locations became a regular occurrence online. In Guangdong province alone, 42 stations were shut down in 2021.
Stations that remained open struggled with a sharp decline in passenger numbers, many operating at a loss. At that time, long-distance routes in numerous cities and counties were successively discontinued. As this closure wave swept the nation, many concluded that long-distance bus transport was a sunset industry.
The assumption was that closed routes would never reopen, and buses would become a rare sight on the roads. Surprisingly, however, over the past year or two, those familiar buses have started reappearing frequently on the roads, with queues even forming at pick-up points.
Occupancy rates on some routes have reached 80%, and ticket sales in certain areas have seen average daily growth of up to 400%. How did the long-distance bus sector, which seemed all but finished just a few years ago, stage such an unexpected revival? Is this a genuine turnaround or merely the last gasp of a dying industry?
The period around New Year's Day this year brought news that shocked many Guangzhou residents. The Guangyuan Bus Station in Guangzhou announced it would cease operations entirely by the end of January.
Once a key transport hub in the city center, Guangyuan Station was the first stop in Guangzhou for many arriving from eastern, western, and northern Guangdong, full of hope as they embarked on life in the big city. People would arrive from their hometowns with heavy luggage, stepping off the bus at Guangyuan feeling that hope was just around the corner.
Elderly visitors unfamiliar with travel, sent off on buses by relatives with strict instructions to alight at Guangyuan, would feel their weariness vanish upon seeing waiting family. Now, all that has come to an end.
The closure of Guangyuan Station was not entirely unforeseen. As early as 2022, due to dwindling passenger numbers, the station had begun leasing much of its space to car rental companies. By the end, its daily passenger flow averaged a mere 100 people.
Faced with such meager numbers, the closure of this station, which had operated for over two decades and served more than 100 million passengers cumulatively, seemed inevitable. In fact, Guangyuan Station's ability to hold on for so long was remarkable, as the industry's decline was likely predetermined a decade ago.
The fundamental reason for the closure wave was simple: fewer people were riding buses. In 2012, China's road passenger volume peaked at a historic 3.55701 billion人次. This was followed by a decade-long consecutive decline.
By 2024, this figure had dropped to 1.178108 billion人次, a staggering decrease of 2.179 billion人次—a drop of 65% in just twelve years. Furthermore, while there were 867,100 passenger vehicles in 2021, this number fell to 554,200 by 2022.
Each vehicle lost potentially meant one less driver and one fewer job opportunity, making the decline particularly alarming. Around 2020, travel numbers plummeted drastically. Although there was a rebound in 2023, figures stabilized and normalized again by 2024.
This cycle of boom and bust directly fueled the successive waves of station closures in recent years. The situation was especially pronounced in high-mobility provinces like Guangdong. In 2018, Shenzhen still had 41 bus stations, designed for an average daily passenger flow of around 350,000 people based on declining trends.
In reality, however, the actual average daily flow was only 44,900, resulting in a station utilization rate of just 13%, with some stations as low as 1%. Across the Pearl River Delta region, 80% of stations operated at a loss under reduced passenger numbers, with some major stations incurring annual losses reaching tens of millions of yuan.
Of the remaining 20%, many stations barely managed to break even. In this context, closure seemed the only viable option. However, closure wasn't a perfect solution either, as buses and drivers still needed employment.
Consequently, even after stations closed, the bus companies that operated from them actively sought ways to survive. Unexpectedly, during this self-rescue effort, they discovered a new path that benefits passengers, drivers, and companies alike—a path leading to a potential 500 billion yuan market.
Starting at just 9.9 yuan, buses are now competing directly with high-speed rail. This "cabbage price" fare strategy has delighted passengers. During this year's New Year period, particularly in the Pearl River Delta, many people surprisingly returned to buses for travel.
Occupancy rates on some routes even exceeded 80%, with fully booked buses becoming common during peak hours. This high occupancy isn't due to infrequent schedules either. Intercity buses have shed their previous sluggish image, with many routes operating every half-hour, and as frequently as every 15 minutes during peaks.
High frequency naturally indicates high demand. This raises a question: why are passengers, who had largely abandoned buses, now choosing them again? After all, the buses themselves are largely the same, and the routes are mostly unchanged.
Furthermore, with many stations closed, pick-up and drop-off points are often just on the roadside. Passengers can no longer wait comfortably inside sheltered stations with seating; instead, they must wait standing by the road. Yet, even under these conditions, many are willing to queue.
What magic do these buses now possess? How have they transformed in just a year or two from a "sunset industry" into a service people are willing to wait in line for on the roadside? The answer behind this seemingly不可思议 phenomenon is strategic and represents a desperate bid for survival by transport companies.
In an era of increasingly advanced high-speed rail, why are people choosing buses again, which traditionally offered a poorer experience? Especially in the Pearl River Delta, networks of high-speed rail and intercity trains are highly developed, offering superior speed and service.
Yet, it is precisely this region, with its robust public transport, that is leading the intercity bus revival, even sparking the trend. The primary reason for this counterintuitive choice lies in the bold and practical strategy adopted by intercity bus operators: they are directly challenging rail on price.
Many intercity and long-distance buses in the Pearl River Delta now offer fares described as "cabbage prices." Trips over a hundred kilometers start from just 9 yuan, with pick-up and drop-off in central urban areas, almost door-to-door service.
For example, promotional fares from Guangzhou to downtown Zhaoqing can start as low as 9 yuan, compared to the cheapest动车 ticket costing over 20 yuan. Such a significant price difference is attractive to many time-flexible travelers.
On longer routes, the bus fare advantage is even more pronounced. A bus from Guangzhou to Yangjiang might start at 38 yuan, while the corresponding动车 ticket costs over 100 yuan—a pattern seen on numerous routes. But the most "explosive" aspects go even further.
Just as the closure wave swept the nation and the industry was deemed a "sunset" sector, internet giants like DiDi spotted a potential trillion-yuan market hidden within the downturn. While many assumed buses were losing out to high-speed rail and ride-hailing apps, this isn't entirely accurate.
Between 2012 and 2019, road passenger volume decreased by 16.5 billion人次, yet railway volume increased by only over 1 billion人次 during the same period. Ride-hailing services couldn't possibly absorb the remaining 15 billion-plus passenger trips.
Another often-overlooked factor is that population mobility itself was decreasing during the period of declining road客流. Comparing periods around 2010, net migration into eastern regions decreased by 30.29%. This trend became more pronounced by 2015, with clearly reduced migration flows from central and western China to the east.
Reduced migration volumes, combined with expanding railway networks and the rise of ride-hailing and carpooling, collectively shaped the current fate of long-distance buses. However, decreased long-distance migration isn't necessarily negative.
While people move less frequently over long distances, the need for travel hasn't vanished. Instead, with more people staying locally, the demand for travel within regions, particularly to nearby major cities for development opportunities, has surged, greatly stimulating intercity travel demand.
Today's bus revival is largely fueled by this very intercity travel. Behind this market lie 600 million potential passengers and 500 billion yuan in transaction volume. Previously, buses acted like major arteries, transporting people from small towns to large cities.
Now, with the help of internet companies like DiDi, buses function more like capillaries, moving passengers from one city to another within regions. Transport companies in the Pearl River Delta partnered early with DiDi to launch services like "DiDi Intercity."
Transport companies provide fleets and drivers, while DiDi uses big data to optimize routes, identifying travel needs unmet in specific urban areas. Buses are deployed to areas inaccessible by high-speed rail, such as near subway stations in old city centers, commercial districts, schools, and large communities, enabling seamless bus-subway integration.
This model shifts from the old station-to-station approach to a point-to-point service, with real-time information available via apps. It also eliminates the operational costs of maintaining large stations, allowing savings to be reinvested into service improvements. Essentially, with internet integration, the revived bus industry remains a viable business.
In conclusion, despite rapid advancements in high-speed rail, intercity trains, and the vast ride-hailing market, intercity travel still faces significant pain points. High-speed rail stations are often located in suburban areas, with infrequent local bus connections and prevalent unlicensed taxis.
Carpooling can involve detours and poor experiences. The new point-to-point intercity bus services are addressing these very issues. Affordable prices, convenience, and improved experience are the decisive factors enabling the bus industry's recovery.
The resurgence of intercity buses proves that while markets are unpredictable, there's no such thing as an unsellable product—only products that fail to address customer needs effectively.
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