Abstract
Upstart Holdings, Inc. will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates company guidance, last quarter’s actuals, and prevailing institutional commentary within the January 01, 2026 to February 03, 2026 window.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to total revenue of USD 288.67 million with adjusted EPS of USD 0.46 and EBIT of USD 20.02 million; year-over-year, revenue is projected to rise by 58.53%, adjusted EPS by 11.26%, and EBIT by 154.86%. The model-implied margin backdrop suggests a steady gross-profit profile near recent levels and a net-profit trajectory consistent with scaling volumes, though explicit gross margin and net margin guidance has not been issued. The primary business is expected to be driven by fee-derived revenues anchored in partner loan originations, while interest and fair-value effects remain a smaller swing factor. The most promising segment is fee revenue at USD 258.54 million last quarter, supported by robust origination flows and mix improvements, implying constructive momentum on a year-over-year basis.
Last Quarter Review
Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of USD 277.11 million, gross profit margin of 82.58%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 31.81 million, net profit margin of 11.12%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.52, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 9.67%. The quarter-on-quarter net profit rose by 467.24%, reflecting improved unit economics and tighter credit calibration as funding conditions normalized. Main business highlights: fee revenue was USD 258.54 million and net interest and fair-value adjustments were USD 18.57 million, consistent with the company’s fee-first operating model and demonstrating resilient partner demand.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Fee-Based Marketplace
The fee-based marketplace remains the central driver of Upstart Holdings, Inc.’s near-term performance, with volume-led operating leverage likely to support earnings. The company’s network of bank and credit union partners is positioned to expand loan origination capacity, and historically high gross margins signal that the platform monetizes underwriting with favorable take rates. In the current quarter, the linkage between origination volumes and fee capture is critical; elevated revenue forecasts suggest continued throughput from personal loans and auto-refi channels. A constructive origination mix toward higher-quality borrowers can sustain margin discipline, while disciplined credit parameters should limit loss variability that can otherwise compress contribution profit. Execution hinges on stable funding lanes from institutional buyers and partner balance sheets, as well as smooth model iteration cycles that maintain approval performance without materially increasing default risk.
High-Potential Fee Revenue Stream
Fee revenue has emerged as the most promising engine for the company, both due to its relatively low capital intensity and its direct correlation with platform volumes. Last quarter’s fee revenue base of USD 258.54 million underscores the scale achieved in the marketplace and sets a foundation for sequential momentum into the current quarter. Because fee revenue is less exposed to balance-sheet mark-to-market volatility, the stability of this stream helps preserve margin predictability. In the near term, revenue upside is tied to the breadth of partner adoption across personal loans and auto lending as well as the efficiency of borrower acquisition. The company’s revenue projection implies that incremental throughput from partner programs could lift fee income further, provided approval rates and funding appetite remain aligned with credit performance outcomes.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Investors are likely to focus on four key drivers: origination volume trajectories, unit economics, funding environment stability, and credit performance metrics. Origination volume drives top-line expansion, and its trend versus prior quarter levels is the most direct barometer of revenue durability. Unit economics—specifically contribution margin and fee take rates—will inform whether gross-profit resilience near 82.58% can be maintained as the platform scales. Funding stability from bank partners and institutional buyers is a gating factor for volume throughput; any interruptions or tightening could weigh on revenue capture and increase sensitivity to model-driven approvals. Credit performance, reflected through delinquency and default behavior, interacts with partner confidence and ultimately influences future pricing and approval strategies; consistent performance would help sustain net margin near double digits, whereas adverse trends could lead to higher risk costs or lower conversion.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional commentary within the period skews cautiously constructive, with more previews leaning bullish than bearish based on expectations for revenue acceleration and positive EBIT. Analysts highlighting platform volume expansion foresee revenue of USD 288.67 million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.46, anchoring their view in improving funding conditions and resilient fee take rates. Noted research desks emphasize the upside sensitivity to origination growth, pointing to the prior quarter’s 82.58% gross margin and the fee-first model as supports for contribution profitability. The constructive camp also cites reduced earnings volatility due to a smaller role of fair-value adjustments compared with fee income; profitability metrics around an estimated EBIT of USD 20.02 million reinforce the narrative that scaled volumes can drive operating leverage. Overall, the bullish majority expects sequential progress in throughput and steady margins to align with the company’s guidance and internal KPIs, marking revenue mix quality and partner engagement as the key validation points for the quarter.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments