On Tuesday, October 6, international gold prices rose as a pullback in French government bond yields eased concerns about debt market pressure in the eurozone. The euro posted its strongest weekly gain against the dollar in seven weeks, while the dollar index fell sharply. Momentum in U.S. Treasury yields also slowed, helping gold rebound from its lows and close higher in a choppy session. The price action suggests a potential bottoming formation with upside bias, and combined with recent base-building consolidation, the short-term outlook leans toward continued range-bound trading or a recovery rally.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,141.71 per ounce, first dipped to an intraday low of $4,104.97, then stabilized and rebounded. During the European and U.S. sessions, it traded above the daily open, reaching an intraday high of $4,184.15 late in the U.S. session before closing at $4,163.74. The daily range was $79.18, with a gain of $22.03, or 0.53%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, October 7: international gold opened with narrow-range movement. The rebound momentum in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields has slowed, which short-term favors range-bound trading or a pullback and would support gold prices. However, oil prices show a tendency toward choppy consolidation with a slight upward bias and have not broken below the 200-day moving average support. Inflation outlook and rate hike expectations remain, which would limit gold's rebound momentum. Therefore, the short-term bias remains toward range-bound fluctuation.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Qatar stated that negotiations and information exchanges to end regional conflicts are continuing. Some institutions also noted that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, which would keep oil prices range-bound or with a weak outlook. Additionally, the market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes early Thursday to seek new clues on the monetary policy outlook. Until then, gold prices will remain range-bound.
If the minutes show that most officials believe at least one more rate hike is needed this year, attention should focus on policymakers' assessments of inflation, employment, and the future rate path — particularly whether the next rate hike is more likely in October, December, or further delayed. Gold prices would remain range-bound. Conversely, if the outlook leans dovish, gold prices would launch a recovery rally.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold faced resistance and closed lower last week, moving away below the Bollinger Band middle line and the 60-week moving average. Bullish signals from secondary indicators have continued to weaken, and the Bollinger Bands are trending downward, increasing bearish prospects. However, prices have found some support near the ascending trendline, suggesting the market may continue to consolidate above this level before launching a rebound. If support is broken, the ascending trend channel support zone from 2024 (between $4,100 and $3,800) could still be targeted for bullish entries, waiting for consolidation to complete before renewed strength.
On the daily chart, gold has been in a low-level base-building consolidation recently, with bearish signals from secondary indicators continuing to weaken, increasing the likelihood of a bottoming rebound. In terms of trading strategy, the approach remains to go long on rebounds from the bottom support of the recent trading range and trendline support, targeting the 100-day moving average resistance at $4,260 or the 200-day moving average resistance near the $4,500 level.
The following are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference; actual entry and exit points should be based on real-time notifications:
Gold: Watch support near $4,140 or $4,115; watch resistance near $4,195 or $4,215.
Silver: Watch support near $60.90 or $60.40; watch resistance near $62.00 or $62.45.
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