Weekend Market Wrap: Shanghai Composite and STAR Composite Indexes Set for Changes Starting Tomorrow, Goldman Sachs Lowers South Korea Index Target

Deep News10-25 17:31

The key market-moving news over the weekend includes: the central bank conducting 700 billion yuan of MLF operations next Monday; the Shanghai Composite Index and STAR Composite Index among others set for revisions effective tomorrow; Goldman Sachs cutting its 12-month target for South Korea's Kospi index by 25% to 9,000 points amid growing concerns over AI trades; domestic gold jewelry prices per gram falling below 1,200 yuan, down about 100 yuan over one month; the securities regulator approving the establishment of Citigroup Securities (China) Co., Ltd.; Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co.,Ltd. (001309) reporting a 32,399.91% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters; Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466) posting a 1,324% year-on-year increase in third-quarter net profit with a 42% sequential decline; Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited (688256) reporting a 148% year-on-year increase in third-quarter net profit with an 8% sequential increase; Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (601899) seeing a 25.97% year-on-year increase in third-quarter net profit, benefiting from sharp rises in prices of main metals and by-products; China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088) posting a 3.2% year-on-year increase in third-quarter net profit; and Trump stating that the U.S. could strike Iran again at any time or could reach a deal.

Macro and Market Highlights

The Commerce Ministry spokesperson responded to questions regarding the U.S. Defense Department's release of so-called research security review results. On October 19 U.S. Eastern Time, the U.S. Defense Department published research security review results for certain American universities, noting that the relevant universities had fully terminated cooperative relationships with entities on the 1286 list. The 1286 list includes many Chinese research institutions. In response, the Commerce Ministry stated that enhanced China-U.S. scientific research cooperation serves the common interests of both sides, and pursuing restrictive "decoupling" will only harm others and oneself. China urges the U.S. to respect facts, conform to the universal laws and trends of global scientific and technological exchange and cooperation, and immediately stop the erroneous practice of taking discriminatory and restrictive measures against Chinese research institutions. China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese research institutions.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: efforts should be strengthened in tackling key core technologies to effectively enhance core functions and boost core competitiveness. The Party Committee of the SASAC held a collective study session of the theoretical study center group on the 23rd. The meeting emphasized the need to closely align with the responsibilities and missions of state-owned enterprises and centrally administered enterprises, and to implement key tasks on the new long march of the new era. It is necessary to accelerate high-quality development, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, continuously optimize the layout of the state-owned economy, strengthen efforts in tackling key core technologies, effectively enhance core functions and boost core competitiveness, and better play the strategic supporting role of the state-owned economy; vigorously advance state-owned enterprise and state capital reform, solidly implement tasks for further deepening reform, and truly remove institutional and structural obstacles affecting high-quality corporate development; greatly improve regulatory effectiveness, deeply transform regulatory methods, accelerate the advancement of penetrating supervision, improve the system of state capital regulatory laws and regulations, promote coordinated connectivity among various types of supervision, and continuously enhance the professionalism, systematization, rule-of-law and efficiency of supervision; uphold the overall leadership of the Party, promote deep integration of Party building and business operations, persistently and deeply advance comprehensive strict governance of the Party, and use high-quality Party building to lead and safeguard high-quality development.

The Commerce Ministry spokesperson responded to questions regarding the U.S. release of proposed new rules on outbound investment restrictions. A reporter asked: On October 23, the U.S. Treasury Department released proposed new rules on outbound investment restrictions and sought public comments. What is China's comment? The Commerce Ministry replied: China has noted the situation. The proposed rules discriminately expand the scope of restrictions on investment in China and intensify restrictions, representing a typical practice of overgeneralizing national security, violating the important consensus reached by the heads of state of the two countries, disrupting normal economic and trade cooperation between Chinese and American enterprises, and undermining international economic and trade order. China expresses serious concern and firm opposition, will closely monitor subsequent developments, and reserves the right to take corresponding measures. China has a super-large market with huge consumption and investment potential; investing in China is investing in the future. U.S. restrictions on investment in China are not conducive to China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation and will also harm the interests of American companies themselves. China urges the U.S. to respect the laws of market economy, stop overgeneralizing the concept of national security, stop politicizing and weaponizing economic and trade issues, and create a favorable environment for China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation.

Central bank: will conduct 700 billion yuan of MLF operations next Monday. The central bank announced that, in order to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on October 26, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of MLF operations through fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding, with a term of one year.

Industry Highlights

The State Council Office: mitigate the employment substitution impact of AI applications. The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Adapting to the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Helping Build an Employment-Friendly Development Model." It proposed expanding new space for AI employment in emerging fields, cultivating new momentum for small and medium-sized enterprises to stabilize and expand jobs, creating new models for employment and entrepreneurship in the AI field, and accelerating the development of new AI-related occupations. It also pointed out the need to mitigate the employment substitution impact of AI applications.

Shanghai Composite Index and STAR Composite Index among others set for revision, effective tomorrow. The Shanghai Stock Exchange website published on September 24 the "Announcement on Revising the Compilation Plan for the Shanghai Series Composite Indices." The indices to be revised include the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai A-Share Index, Shanghai Circulation Index, and STAR Composite Index. The revisions to the compilation plans for these indices and derivative indices will be implemented on October 26, 2026. According to the announcement, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to revise the compilation plans for certain Shanghai series composite indices. The revisions include: (1) adding a weight cap rule that no single sample may exceed 15%; and (2) adjusting the exclusion time for risk-warning securities from "the next trading day after the second Friday of the month following the implementation date of the risk warning" to "the next trading day after the second Friday of the month following the announcement date of the risk warning." The remainder of the index compilation plans remains unchanged.

Nomura Securities: the memory chip shortage will persist until 2028, and sector valuations are severely undervalued. Nomura Securities stated that market concerns about the prospects of AI investment are "overreactions," the memory chip shortage will continue until 2028, and memory sector valuations are severely undervalued.

Domestic gold jewelry price per gram falls below 1,200 yuan, down about 100 yuan in one month. On Friday U.S. Eastern Time, spot gold prices fell below the $4,000 per ounce mark, and domestic branded gold jewelry prices were lowered accordingly. Laomiao Gold's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,196 yuan per gram, down 12 yuan from the previous day; Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,200 yuan per gram, down 6 yuan from the previous day; Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,202 yuan per gram, down 6 yuan from the previous day; Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,206 yuan per gram, down 6 yuan from the previous day. Previously, on September 24, domestic branded gold jewelry prices were generally around 1,300 yuan per gram. Within one month, gold jewelry prices have fallen by about 100 yuan.

Ministry of Finance: securities transaction stamp tax reached 239.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 65.1% year on year. Ministry of Finance data showed that in the first three quarters, stamp tax revenue was 412.1 billion yuan, up 31.1% year on year. Among this, securities transaction stamp tax was 239.1 billion yuan, up 65.1% year on year.

Securities regulator: approved the establishment of Citigroup Securities (China) Co., Ltd. The securities regulator approved the establishment of Citigroup Securities (China) Co., Ltd. Citigroup China is registered in Shanghai with registered capital of 1.2 billion yuan, and its business scope includes securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities underwriting and sponsorship, and proprietary securities trading. The shareholder name, capital contribution amount and contribution ratio are Citigroup Global Markets Holdings Limited contributing 100%.

Company Highlights

Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co.,Ltd. (001309): net profit in the first three quarters increased by 32,399.91% year on year. The company announced that in the first three quarters it achieved operating revenue of 28.555 billion yuan, up 328.81% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 8.746 billion yuan, up 32,399.91% year on year. Third-quarter operating revenue was 11.645 billion yuan, up 356.64% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 2.729 billion yuan, up 2,902.75% year on year. The company's Q3 net profit was 2.729 billion yuan and Q2 net profit was 2.671 billion yuan; based on this calculation, Q3 net profit rose 2% sequentially. During the reporting period, the storage industry was prosperous. While maintaining a stable supply chain, the company increased R&D investment and launched self-developed controllers, enriched its product matrix and optimized its product structure, and further increased the revenue scale and revenue proportion of its enterprise-level storage business.

Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466): third-quarter net profit increased by 1,324% year on year and fell 42% sequentially. The company announced that third-quarter operating revenue was 6.037 billion yuan, up 135.40% year on year; net profit was 1.360 billion yuan, up 1,323.97% year on year. First-three-quarter operating revenue was 18.279 billion yuan, up 147.11% year on year; net profit was 5.602 billion yuan, up 3,013.86% year on year. The company's Q3 net profit was 1.36 billion yuan and Q2 net profit was 2.366 billion yuan; based on this calculation, Q3 net profit fell 42% sequentially. The performance growth was mainly driven by multiple favorable factors including the development of the new energy industry and growth in downstream demand. The average selling prices of the company's main lithium products increased significantly year on year, causing operating revenue and gross profit to rise substantially year on year; at the same time, according to Bloomberg forecast data, SQM's performance is expected to increase significantly year on year, and the investment income recognized by the company from this associate increased year on year.

Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited (688256): third-quarter net profit increased by 148% year on year and rose 8% sequentially. The company announced that third-quarter operating revenue was 3.531 billion yuan, up 104.47% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.404 billion yuan, up 147.74% year on year. First-three-quarter operating revenue was 9.526 billion yuan, up 106.76% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 3.715 billion yuan, up 131.49% year on year. The company's Q3 net profit was 1.404 billion yuan and Q2 net profit was 1.298 billion yuan; based on this calculation, Q3 net profit rose 8% sequentially. The performance change was mainly due to the company's continued market expansion and active support for the implementation of AI applications.

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088): third-quarter net profit increased by 3.2% year on year. The company announced that third-quarter operating revenue was 106.693 billion yuan, up 10.9% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 15.688 billion yuan, up 3.2% year on year. In the first three quarters, operating revenue was 296.031 billion yuan, up 9.0% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 44.403 billion yuan, up 3.8% year on year. Revenue growth was mainly due to increased revenue from coal, coal chemical, power generation and other businesses.

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (601899): third-quarter net profit increased by 25.97% year on year, benefiting from sharp increases in prices of main metals and by-products. The company announced that third-quarter operating revenue was 89.274 billion yuan, up 3.22% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 18.356 billion yuan, up 25.97% year on year. In the first three quarters, operating revenue was 283.453 billion yuan, up 11.51% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 57.526 billion yuan, up 51.93% year on year. The company's Q3 net profit was 18.356 billion yuan and Q2 net profit was 19.09 billion yuan; based on this calculation, Q3 net profit fell 3% sequentially. Performance growth was mainly attributable to: first, thoroughly implementing the general policy of "improving quality, increasing output, controlling costs and improving efficiency," coordinating and strengthening production organization and operational management, and steadily releasing production from key mineral types; second, effectively controlling the growth rate of cash costs per ton of ore; third, benefiting from sharp increases in prices of main metals and by-products, with the gross profit margin of mineral products significantly improving year on year and fully enjoying the dividends of price increases.

East Money Information Co., Ltd.: third-quarter net profit increased by 8.86% year on year. The company announced that third-quarter total operating revenue was 5.054 billion yuan, up 6.80% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 3.843 billion yuan, up 8.86% year on year. First-three-quarter total operating revenue was 15.560 billion yuan, up 34.26% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 11.907 billion yuan, up 30.89% year on year. The company's Q3 net profit was 3.843 billion yuan and Q2 net profit was 4.327 billion yuan; based on this calculation, Q3 net profit fell 11% sequentially. Performance growth was mainly due to year-on-year increases in net securities handling fees and commission income, financial e-commerce service revenue, interest income from margin financing, and net income from securities brokerage business.

Shanghai Huaxin Co., Ltd.: planning a change of controlling shareholder, shares suspended. The company announced that its controlling shareholder, Yidian Group, is planning matters involving the transfer of shares it holds in the company, which may lead to a change in the company's controlling shareholder. Given the uncertainty of the matter, in order to ensure fair information disclosure and protect investor interests, the company's shares will be suspended from trading at market open on October 26, 2026, with the suspension expected to last no more than two trading days. During the suspension period, the company will timely fulfill its information disclosure obligations based on the progress of the matter.

Tibet Gaozheng Civil Explosives Co., Ltd.: planning matters including issuing shares to purchase assets, shares suspended. The company announced that it received notice from Tibet Geological and Mineral Group, which plans to purchase, through issuing shares, its 51% equity interest in Tibet Zilong Mining, 51% equity interest in Tibet Ziyuan Copper, and 100% equity interest in Tibet Shengyuan Mining, and to raise supporting funds. The transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring and related-party transaction, but not a restructuring listing. The company's shares will be suspended from trading at market open on October 26, 2026, and the company expects to disclose the transaction plan and apply for resumption of trading within no more than five trading days.

Huaneng Hydropower Co., Ltd.: plans to acquire 100% equity of HNYL held by controlling shareholder for 8.701 billion yuan. The company announced that it plans to acquire, in cash, 100% equity of HNYL held by controlling shareholder Huaneng Group for 8.701 billion yuan. This transaction constitutes a related-party transaction and does not constitute a major asset restructuring. HNYL is mainly engaged in clean energy projects such as hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the southwestern region, with 1.5414 million kilowatts of installed capacity in operation and 830,000 kilowatts under construction. After the acquisition is completed, the company's installed hydropower capacity in operation will increase from 28.1158 million kilowatts to 28.9858 million kilowatts. This transaction still needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review.

Overseas Highlights

Trump says the U.S. could strike Iran again at any time or could reach a deal. U.S. President Trump attended midterm election voting in West Palm Beach, Florida, on October 24 local time. When asked by reporters on site whether the U.S. might launch another attack on Iran, Trump responded that he would not disclose such information to the media, but also said the U.S. could strike Iran again at any time or could reach a deal. Trump also said he could have used B-2 bombers a year ago to "finish it and leave," but he believed Iran would always find a way to build a nuclear bomb, so a permanent agreement with Iran must be reached.

S&P introduces new rules: adjusts the classification rules for growth and value stocks; growth stock evaluation will no longer reference a stock's momentum over the past 12 months. According to reports, S&P Dow Jones Indices introduced new rules to adjust the classification of growth and value stocks. The new rules will incorporate intangible assets, expected earnings and free cash flow into value stock evaluation factors; growth stock evaluation will no longer reference a stock's momentum over the past 12 months. The new rules will take effect before the U.S. market open on December 21 local time. Funds tracking the indices will need to adjust positions accordingly, affecting about $375 billion in passive funds. Researchers and fund managers believe that the long-term weak performance of value stocks is partly due to flaws in existing measurement standards.

U.S. intelligence says Iran has intensified actions against U.S. officials. According to a report by the U.S. news website Axios on the 23rd, U.S. intelligence believes Iran has "significantly increased" actions targeting American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and other regions, and some potentially lethal attack plots have entered an "advanced stage." The report said the website obtained a non-classified memorandum submitted to U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on the 23rd. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned in the memorandum that intelligence on Iranian attack plots needs to be shared with more U.S. personnel who currently do not have clearance to receive it. The report said the memorandum did not disclose specific targets of Iranian attacks, which countries outside the Middle East were involved, or details of attack plans, but noted that relevant intelligence had been shared with senior State Department officials. The report also said that due to the security situation, the U.S. State Department earlier this week asked non-essential personnel and family members at the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia and consular offices in Jeddah and Dhahran to evacuate. On the 23rd, the State Department also ordered a reduction in diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan. The above intelligence is one of the reasons for the U.S. government's decision to reduce personnel at U.S. embassies and consulates in the Middle East.

Iranian president will visit Russia next week and hold talks with Putin. According to Iranian sources on the 23rd, Iranian President Pezeshkian will visit Russia next week to attend the eighth summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum held in Moscow on October 27. Separately, according to Qatari sources, during the summit, Pezeshkian will hold talks with Russian President Putin.

U.S. adjusts the scope of additional tariffs on Canadian goods. The White House issued an announcement on the 23rd saying that U.S. President Trump signed a document that day adjusting the scope of additional tariffs on Canadian goods, with the adjustments to take effect from October 30 U.S. Eastern Time. According to information released by the White House, the adjustments were made under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Plywood, bleached paper, paperboard, plastic boxes and other goods will no longer be subject to an additional 50% ad valorem tariff, while valves, carpets and other goods will be subject to an additional 50% ad valorem tariff. Multiple foreign media outlets analyzed that the Canadian goods exempted from additional tariffs are crucial to the U.S. state of Maine, and Trump made the adjustment under pressure from congressional midterm elections in order to help Republican Senator Susan Collins in her fiercely contested re-election race in Maine. On July 20, Trump signed multiple announcements imposing 50% tariffs on hundreds of specific Canadian goods including wine, hockey sticks and cement under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. On September 8, he signed a document adjusting the scope of Canadian goods subject to this tariff measure.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower collectively, while oil and gas stocks surged. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower collectively on Friday, with the Dow down 1.24% but up 0.41% for the week; the Nasdaq down 0.21% and down 0.71% for the week; and the S&P 500 down 0.52% and down 0.47% for the week. Most popular tech stocks fell, with Google down more than 1%, Amazon and Meta down nearly 1%, SpaceX up more than 1%, while the storage sector rose, with SK Hynix up more than 4% and Micron Technology up more than 2%. The oil and gas sector surged, with Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Shell up more than 2%. Precious metals, airline and food and beverage stocks declined, with Kaiser Aluminum down more than 6%, U.S. Gold Corp, Americas Silver, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines down more than 3%, and Pan American Silver, Coca-Cola and Hershey down more than 2%.

Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its 12-month target for South Korea's Kospi index by 25% to 9,000 points as concerns over AI trades intensify. As market concerns over AI trades intensified, strategists at Goldman Sachs (GS) lowered their target for South Korea's Kospi index by 25%. This was the first sharp cut after multiple upward revisions by the bank this year. Analysts lowered the index's 12-month target from 12,000 to 9,000 points, citing the need for more conservative valuation assumptions after the benchmark fell more than 35% from its June high. Strategists believe the selloff has left Korean stocks severely undervalued, and the revised target still implies more than 60% upside from current levels. Chipmaking giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have made South Korea's Kospi index a bellwether for AI trades. Investors are increasingly worried about whether the industry's massive infrastructure spending can be sustained, while financing costs continue to rise and there are few signs that these investments can generate sufficient returns. Related selling pressure has already spread across the broader Korean stock market. Goldman Sachs (GS) strategists estimate that current semiconductor stock valuations imply a 65% decline in the industry's 2027 earnings, but the bank views that scenario as overly pessimistic. Stocks outside the memory chip industry account for about half of the index and currently trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 times.

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