Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s market-oriented reforms are beginning to show effects. On March 3, third-party quotation platforms indicated that the bulk price for 53-degree Flying Fairy Moutai had declined for three consecutive days. The price for an original case dropped to 1,600 yuan per bottle from 1,700 yuan on March 1. According to Moutai speculators, while the price decrease is partly due to the usual post-holiday market adjustment, the growing number of retail investors enabled by the "i Moutai" platform is altering the wholesale pricing mechanism. The previous model of hoarding to drive up prices and having retail investors absorb the inflated costs is becoming unsustainable.
Post-Spring Festival, Moutai prices have declined rapidly. A Beijing-based liquor merchant named Han Liang reported that during the Spring Festival, the wholesale price for a case of Moutai remained stable above 1,700 yuan per bottle. He had recently restocked, albeit in small quantities, but the swift price drop was unexpected. Han Liang, who operates a liquor trading company, noted that while Moutai's market price is transparent, leaving little room for arbitrage, he used to profit by purchasing from distributors and reselling with a small markup. Previously, holding inventory during opportune moments, such as the initial launch of the Dragon Year Moutai, could yield profits exceeding hundreds of yuan per bottle. However, with the consistent decline in Moutai's wholesale price over the past two years, speculation has become less profitable. In 2025, the wholesale price fell from 2,300 yuan per bottle at the start of the year to 1,499 yuan by November. Consequently, Han Liang has reverted to a quick turnover model, avoiding inventory hoarding.
This year, the fluctuation in Moutai's price has been unusual, puzzling merchants. Prices remained stable during the Spring Festival, showing an increase of about 150 yuan per bottle compared to the month before the holiday. However, volatility emerged in early March. On March 1, the wholesale price dipped slightly by 20 yuan, settling at 1,680 yuan. On March 2, several minor decreases occurred throughout the day, pulling the evening quote down by 50 to 70 yuan, raising concerns among distributors about future price trends. By March 3, data showed the wholesale price for a 2026 53-degree 500ml Flying Fairy Moutai original case had fallen to 1,600 yuan, a drop of over 100 yuan in three days. The price for individual bottles broke below the 1,600 yuan mark, reaching 1,575 yuan. Some merchants reported a further decline of 15 to 20 yuan per bottle by midday.
The "Horse Year" commemorative Moutai experienced a more significant drop. Its price for a standard original case fell from 2,300 yuan on February 25 to 1,920 yuan on March 3, a decrease of nearly 400 yuan, approaching its i Moutai launch price of 1,899 yuan. The post-holiday period is traditionally a low season for premium baijiu, making price corrections normal. A Jiangsu-based merchant, Guo Youchen, explained that reduced gifting and consumption after the holiday lower restocking demand, slowing sales for distributors and prompting price cuts. Additionally, gifted Moutai often re-enters the market, further depressing prices. However, merchants noted that previous price declines were not as steep or rapid as the current drop over two to three days, making them cautious about purchasing inventory for fear of buying at a peak.
Some intermediaries believe the primary driver of this price correction is a shift in market structure. Previously, pricing was controlled by major distributors and speculators who manipulated supply and hoarded inventory to inflate prices, with retail investors and end-consumers ultimately bearing the cost, leading to the long-term unavailability of Moutai at its official 1,499 yuan price. Now, with "i Moutai" consistently supplying 1,499 yuan bottles directly to the market, primarily to retail investors, a significant volume of supply is entering the market, disrupting the old pricing logic. While large operators had the financial strength and collusive agreements to buffer price drops, the influx of numerous small investors has fragmented the market.
Starting January 1, 2026, Kweichow Moutai implemented a new sales strategy, directly selling Flying Fairy Moutai at 1,499 yuan via the "i Moutai" app. The initial individual daily purchase limit was 12 bottles, later reduced to 6 bottles. Flying Fairy Moutai has sold out daily for two consecutive months since its launch on the platform. Official data shows "i Moutai" gained 6.28 million new users in its first month of 2026, with monthly active users exceeding 15.31 million. During that month, 1.45 million users completed 2.12 million transactions, including over 1.43 million orders for Flying Fairy Moutai, with industry speculation suggesting a large portion went to retail investors.
Guo Youchen noted that small investors are cautious, lack market judgment, and tend to follow trends, often selling shortly after acquiring bottles with a small markup. However, their collective actions can force larger players to lower prices, as seen with the "Horse Year" Moutai.
Industry observers believe the involvement of retail investors is breaking market rigidities, allowing prices to respond more freely to market forces. This may be a key step in Moutai's broader market-oriented reform strategy. At the end of 2025, Moutai's management emphasized pushing forward with market reforms. On January 13, 2026, Kweichow Moutai officially announced its "2026 Market-Oriented Operation Plan," outlining reforms across products, operations, channels, and pricing to establish a dynamic retail price adjustment mechanism that is "market-responsive and relatively stable."
Beverage analyst Cai Xuefei stated that through "i Moutai," the company is reshaping its price ecosystem. By increasing the supply of officially priced direct sales, it dilutes the scarcity in the secondary market, acting as a stabilizer and increasing transparency for hot items like Flying Fairy Moutai, thereby compressing speculators' profit margins and stability. This move is seen as Kweichow Moutai reclaiming pricing power and enhancing direct consumer reach in its negotiation with distributors and speculators.
To an extent, "i Moutai" is becoming a crucial regulatory tool for Kweichow Moutai; if market prices are too high, the company can increase supply on the platform, and vice versa. Chairman Chen Hua has emphasized the importance of preventing price speculation for the benefit of both consumers and the brand itself.
Independent commentator Xiao Zhuqing said the core of Kweichow Moutai's "market-oriented reform" is to gain initiative in market regulation, primarily by influencing prices through supply-demand adjustments, essentially reclaiming pricing power from speculators. By controlling shipment pace, Kweichow Moutai has guided prices back to more accessible levels, attracting individual business owners and small-to-medium enterprise proprietors who previously could not afford Moutai, thereby expanding its consumer base and usage occasions.
During the Spring Festival, multiple merchants reported that as Moutai prices stabilized at lower levels, particularly with 1,499 yuan bottles from "i Moutai" entering the market, the rate of bottles being opened in餐饮 channels increased.
Xiao Zhuqing believes this strategy redirects a portion of the profits previously captured by speculators to consumers and enhances Kweichow Moutai's direct sales profits. While speculators historically played a role in building the brand's social and emotional value, under the new market conditions, with Kweichow Moutai having established a value system based on public recognition, their role has diminished, and their operations are likely to become more challenging.
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