Foreign exchange strategists at Morgan Stanley have turned bearish on the yen, anticipating a gradual weakening of the Japanese currency as recent measures to support it by US and Japanese authorities prove short-lived in their impact.
The coordinated effort to bolster the yen provided only a temporary boost to demand for the currency, failing to reverse its long-term downward trend. Consequently, the strategists have shifted to a more bearish bias while maintaining a neutral overall stance.
"Unless there is another joint currency intervention, we expect the dollar/yen pair to gradually climb higher," wrote David Adams, Andrew Watrous, and Molly Nickolin on Friday. The yen has been under sustained pressure due to the persistent interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and other global central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve.
Last week, Japan and the United States intervened in the foreign exchange market to stem the yen's slide, sparking a rebound from its roughly 40-year low. However, the effects of that intervention have since faded. The dollar was trading at 157.48 yen on Friday, significantly above the 155.23 level seen on Monday following the intervention.
"While future joint currency intervention remains possible, we do not believe it will necessarily influence the future direction of US monetary policy," the strategists noted. "We believe that a clear shift in the Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation is required to change the yen's weakening trend."
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