According to a report, Gary Black, Managing Director of Future Fund, recently posted on X predicting that SpaceX (SPCX.US) may announce an all-stock acquisition of Tesla (TSLA.US) within weeks, viewing the flying Roadster launch as the catalyst to integrate Elon Musk's companies.
The well-known investor stated on social platform X: "I agree with the view that the sole purpose of the Roadster launch event was to justify the merger of SpaceX and Tesla. My judgment: an official announcement will come within the next few weeks, with SpaceX using its own stock as currency to acquire Tesla at $420 per share; the deal could take a year to close."
However, alongside this prediction, he expressed skepticism about the Roadster's financial impact. Black estimated that the sports car could contribute only $0.06 to Tesla's 2029 earnings per share, representing just 1.1% of the consensus adjusted EPS estimate of $5.40. He also expects limited benefit to the overall brand, noting that few drivers would prioritize sub-one-second acceleration or mid-air flips as purchase considerations. "Admittedly, the technology and the entire event itself were stunning," he commented, while questioning investor enthusiasm for a niche product that remains two to three years away from market. "Third, Tesla has historically seen its stock price sell off after launch event hype materializes, and this time will be no exception."
Prior to the event, Black was actually not in favor of the merger, arguing at the time that a stock-for-stock deal would be constrained by Tesla's lower valuation multiple, and that pre-close share price volatility could erode the acquisition premium paid in SpaceX stock. "We maintain a cautious stance on Tesla due to its elevated valuation, ongoing downward pressure on earnings expectations, and our view that unsupervised autonomous driving technology will ultimately become commoditized," he said.
Roadster Debut Ignites Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation
Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, also believes the Roadster event had similar motivations: "There are two core takeaways from the Roadster event. First, it was an engineering prowess showcase with little commercial value beyond crushing traditional automakers. Second, Musk is eager to integrate Tesla and SpaceX together."
Musk himself reposted the livestream with the caption "Tesla x SpaceX." The collaboration between the two sides extends to a research facility that Terafab plans to build at the Texas Gigafactory, with plans to design and test approximately 10 chips per year. "I think the original intent of Tesla and SpaceX building a chip factory together was to attempt these kinds of high-risk, high-reward frontier projects," Musk said in an interview.
On the other hand, Morningstar is more bullish than Black or Munster on the Roadster's commercial prospects, saying its hardcore engineering capabilities could draw buyer attention to Tesla's broader product lineup. However, the firm still forecasts that once production ramps up, Roadster annual deliveries will be fewer than 2,000 units. It is understood that the model has been delayed multiple times, with Musk currently targeting 2028 for production. Reservation deposits for the Performance and Thrust versions are $50,000 and $250,000 respectively, with no delivery guarantee. An invitation-only Rocket version is also planned.
Wall Street Weighs In on the Merger
Barclays noted last week that an all-stock acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX is the most likely deal structure. The bank outlined two possible timelines: an announcement around Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, or a separate announcement within 6 to 12 months. "While we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the real value lies in vertical integration," analysts said. The firm also believes the deal would connect Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus programs with SpaceX's AI and space infrastructure, while streamlining Terafab decision-making and helping Musk maintain voting control. However, shareholder approval and antitrust review remain potential obstacles. Baird also expects a potential SpaceX merger to become the dominant topic in Tesla's near-term narrative.
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