Aviation Securities released a research report stating that in 2025, the media sector demonstrated strong recovery resilience. The Shenwan Media Index rose by 27.17% for the full year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index. In the first three quarters of 2025, sector revenue reached a record high of RMB 387.48 billion, with net profit attributable to parent shareholders showing a significant year-on-year reversal (37.12%). The driving factors have shifted from mere correlation with U.S. stock performance to the independent and controllable implementation of applications. Domestic models like DeepSeek have driven frequent hits and validated business models through cost reduction. The firm predicts that in 2026, the media industry will evolve along the dual main themes of "IP Assetization" and "AI Agentization," with consumption logic transitioning from functionality to emotional value, and AI's role leaping from an auxiliary tool to a business leader.
Aviation Securities' key views are as follows:
**Overall Market Performance of the Media Industry: Event-Driven Trends and Valuation Divergence** From early 2025 to March 2026, the media sector accumulated a gain of 48.29%, showing a three-phase event-driven trend: initiated by DeepSeek's technological breakthrough, continuing with the broader market uptrend, and peaking then retreating catalyzed by GEO marketing models and the Seedance video model. Significant structural divergence exists within the sector, with Gaming II leading gains, while video media and educational publishing performed relatively weakly. The sector's current PE ratio is 27 times, at the 67.8th percentile historically since 2020. Valuation differences among sub-sectors are notable, with digital media and film/theater valuations relatively high, while the publishing sector maintains stable, low valuations.
**Sub-Sectors: Supply Recovery Resonates with AI Empowerment** 1. The gaming sector enjoys robust supply and demand, with license approvals hitting record highs. AI technology comprehensively reduces costs and improves efficiency, leading to frequent releases of interactive new products. 2. The film and theater sector achieved box office recovery relying on blockbusters like "Nezha 2," transitioning towards comprehensive IP operation. AI-generated comic series have become a new growth point. 3. The publishing sector maintains defensiveness due to tutorial materials and tax benefits, shifting towards content copyright management. 4. The advertising and marketing sector benefits from AI-driven efficiency improvements across the entire chain. GEO engine commercialization is accelerating, with overseas marketing becoming a core growth driver.
**Core Trend: AI Agents Lead Full-Scene Industry Transformation** AI is upgrading from an auxiliary tool to AI Agents. Through a dual-model approach of "large models empowering creativity + small models ensuring precise execution," AI is comprehensively taking over four core scenarios: marketing, film/TV, e-commerce, and AI toys. * In marketing, the shift is from SEO to GEO. AI acts as a super traffic intermediary, reconstructing the logic of brand exposure and conversion. * In film/TV, multi-agent collaboration enables automated production from script to video. The capacity for AI-generated comic series is increasing exponentially, promoting integrated cross-format IP development. * In e-commerce, AI permeates the entire process from traffic acquisition and shopping guidance to conversion and cross-border operations, reshaping consumer experience and overseas competitiveness. * In AI toys, products are evolving from educational tools to emotional companions. The global market is experiencing rapid growth, with IP licensing and end-to-end technology becoming core barriers. Business models are gradually transitioning towards Result-as-a-Service (RaaS).
**2026 Media Sector: Shifting from Valuation Repair to Genuine Profit-Driven Growth** 1. **Marketing End (Algorithm Leadership):** Focus on marketing companies that pioneer GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) and global programmatic advertising, and possess verified RaaS models. Recommended companies include Daily Interactive, BlueFocus, Yeahka, and SMZDM. 2. **Content End (IP Assets):** Focus on IP operators with vast copyright reserves capable of rapid conversion into AI-generated comic series/short dramas, possessing cross-format capabilities. Recommended companies include Enlight Media, Huace Film & TV, Chinese Online, and China Publishing Group. 3. **E-commerce:** AI e-commerce remains in the early stages of industrial empowerment. With deepening commercialization and improved cost structures, it is expected to continuously release the dual value of "efficiency dividends and valuation flexibility." Recommended companies include Focus Technology, SMZDM, Shein Group, and Jinhong Group. 4. **AI Toys:** Emotional companionship and cognitive capabilities are driving increased global penetration, powered by the dual engines of IP and end-to-end models. Recommended companies include Kingnet Network, Alpha Group, and China Literature.
**Risk Warning** Risks include economic recovery falling short of expectations, consumer confidence being weaker than anticipated, industry regulatory risks, policy tightening risks, slower-than-expected technological development, risks related to content ecosystem development, underperformance in monetization, speculative hype risks, and market competition risks.
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