On December 22, as cryptocurrency market volatility intensified, debates over whether "Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been invalidated" grew heated. While some prominent analysts argue that institutional capital inflows have rewritten market dynamics, RadexMarkets observes that Bitcoin's current trajectory still exhibits striking similarities to historical cycles. Following its peak performance in 2025, the market appears inevitably headed for a correction phase, with investors cautioned about a potential "flat period" in 2026.
Institutions such as Bitwise and ARK Invest recently stated that Bitcoin, now deeply integrated into traditional finance through ETFs and other channels, may have shed its past boom-bust cycles due to its transformed asset attributes. However, RadexMarkets maintains that price action data still supports the cyclical theory. The four-year cycle hinges on supply shocks triggered by halving events occurring every four years. Historical patterns from 2012 to 2020 consistently followed a fixed rhythm: post-halving rallies, deep corrections, and consolidation before the next cycle.
Current market behavior suggests Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $125,000 aligns precisely with the 145-week mark of this bull cycle—a pattern mirroring the previous three cycles. This indicates technical regularity persists despite institutional participation. RadexMarkets predicts the bearish correction phase typically lasts about a year, implying 2026 will likely be Bitcoin’s "consolidation year."
Regarding asset allocation and risk management, while long-term bullish trends remain firm, short-term prices may seek support between $65,000 and $75,000. Traders must recognize these cyclical "winters" as essential for purging market excesses and building momentum for the next halving-driven rally.
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