智者还是疯子？木头姐为什么“一条道走到黑”

华尔街见闻2023-01-11

作者：葛佳明2022年对“木头姐”（Cathie Wood）来说无疑是难熬的，其方舟基金Ark Investment Management旗下的九只交易所交易基金（ETF）已经损失近500亿美元资产，旗舰Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF（ARKK）今年总亏损接近67%，成为美国市场230多只活跃交易的多元化ETF中跌幅最大的一个，超标普500跌幅3倍。木头姐被吓到了吗？...

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Comments

Paggie
2023-01-12
Paggie
閱
newbill
2023-01-11
newbill
反正都不是她的錢😁
嘞撸虎7
2023-01-11
嘞撸虎7
閱
建稳的朋友
2023-01-11
建稳的朋友
🙏🙏

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Why did Sister Wood \"go all the way to the black\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ad1453a197dbd48c2e8d67bd2df28a","symbols_score_info":{"ARKK":0.9},"content_text":"作者：葛佳明2022年对“木头姐”（Cathie Wood）来说无疑是难熬的，其方舟基金Ark Investment Management旗下的九只交易所交易基金（ETF）已经损失近500亿美元资产，旗舰Ark Disruptive Innovation ETF（ARKK）今年总亏损接近67%，成为美国市场230多只活跃交易的多元化ETF中跌幅最大的一个，超标普500跌幅3倍。木头姐被吓到了吗？没有。木头姐准备改变其投资理念吗？也没有。近日，木头姐在接受媒体采访时表示，对于去年的收益状况她并不惊讶，现在她正在加倍押注去年受到重创的成长型股票，包括特斯拉，这些公司作为行业变革的先行者，应该从更长远的角度来看，给他们更多时间。2023年伊始，因特斯拉交付量疲软，大量投资者恐慌出逃时，但木头姐增持了特斯拉的头寸。媒体称，现在木头姐已将基金的持仓量削减至30只，是其2021年持仓量的一半。晨星分析师Robby Greengold表示，Wood并不重视风险管理，持有的股票相对较少，会使其投资组合承担更大的风险。回顾过去，木头姐认为2021年以前的成绩，足以让她“傲视群雄”，这样的成绩也证明了她投资理念的正确；展望未来木头姐称应该给特斯拉、ZOOM等优质科技公司更长的时间，投资周期起码5年，因此对于当下的得失，她“不以为然”。过去的成绩给了“木头姐”勇气2020年疫情期间，木头姐以“梭哈”科技股的方式一战成名，被称为“女版巴菲特”。华尔街见闻此前提及，因积极投资于创新型科技股，木头姐管理的明星基金产品ARKK从2014年创立至2020年底涨幅超过600%，资产规模从十几亿美元升至六百多亿美元，使其名声大噪。同时期巴菲特管理的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）的A基金仅涨了约80%。与巴菲特投资理念截然不同，Wood一直以来都在尝试摆脱价值陷阱，坚持做空价值股并增持颠覆性创新公司的投资理念。她认为一些公司利用资产负债表支付股息和回购股票来迎合短期投资者，但这些公司在创新上的投资不够多。在2021年年度投资报告中，木头姐带领团队提出了15个宏大而前景广阔的投资主题，涉及的领域除比特币、电动汽车、无人驾驶之外，还包括深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造、虚拟世界等。木头姐称，她坚信，他们正投资于所有破坏传统世界秩序的颠覆者，五年后这些公司将成为未来的赢家。Wood在采访中表示：技术创新将会驱动一段持续的通货紧缩时期，当市场的风险情绪减弱后，投资经理及分析师自然就会撤出这些股票。我准备做空在基准指数中权重较重的股票。但2021年2月下旬开始，科技成长类股票走势逐渐疲软，木头姐的ARKK的基金收益也迎来下跌和长期调整。投资者们倾向于认为，美股正处泡沫之中，但木头姐再三强调，她投资的科技股“离泡沫远得不能再远了”。不存在“泡沫”，上涨需要时间在2021年发布的展望中，木头姐称，对于现在的科技企业的创新已有了切实的市场需求，并非概念，二十世纪末的互联网泡沫不会重现：与互联网泡沫破灭前市场的“欢欣鼓舞”相比，当前的美股投资者行为要稳重和谨慎得多。当前的市场负面情绪反而是一种“反信号”，悲观情绪越是日益增长，越代表股市可能会进一步上涨，在没有泡沫存在的情况下，这是个好事情。木头姐强调她会利用波动，将投资组合集中于最有信心的股票，依旧是以“创新型”股票为主，这些公司有望在未来五到十年内加速改变人类生活，以五年的投资期限看，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益：投资人已经对可能出现风险非常重视。因此，以五年的投资期限看，未来Ark关注的五大领域，DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术，将会产生3-5倍的投资收益。Wood在最近的采访中说，投资人们希望她将策略策略一以贯之的进行下去：“当投资人们愿意投资我们的策略时，意味着他们正在寻找纯粹的创新，他们不愿意跟着主流和通识的投资策略走。”当晨星分析师Robby Greengold表示，Wood并不重视风险管理，使其投资组合承担更大的风险时，Wood回应称这样的看法并不正确，风险管理对他们来说非常重要：我们有许多不同的团队专注于风险管理。与传统收益相比，调整收益可以更很合理地描绘公司的增长轨迹。木头姐称，投资者也自己可以通过在基金大幅上涨后卖出来自己管理风险，有时她也会鼓励投资者们这样做。同时，对与2022年的市场，木头姐承认她在宏观方面犯了一些错误。她认为，自2021年资金见顶以来，ARK团队没有预料到两件事：没想到供应链问题会持续这么久，也没有预料俄乌冲突推升大宗商品价格。但木头姐称她认为，今年通胀将比预期更快的速度下降，甚至有些指标会陷入通货紧缩，木头姐解释称：美国自2022年初开始一直处于衰退之中，石油等大宗商品的价格一直在写跌，二手车、房屋和现在的消费品的价格也在下降。通货膨胀率的下降会比预期快得多。她认为，这一切的发生将迫使美联储改变路线：我们的想法是，美联储在紧缩方面做得过头了，随着通胀率在（2023 年）的某个时候降至2%以下，政策将出现180度的大转弯。属于“颠覆性创新”的时代要到了木头姐表示，不断上升的通胀使ARK投资的股票下跌。当利率攀升时，投资者往往倾向于更稳定的投资，价值股得到了投资者们的青睐，但随着利率的急剧下降会让他们的成长创新股再次得到关注。同时，Wood认为科技创新和医疗的快速更迭并没有消失，属于“颠覆性创新”的时代即将到来：创新从来没有停止，现在仅仅是未来5到10年的预演。去年12月时候，Wood指出当下“颠覆性创新”领域没有被有效估值，且被低估了。 她表示：我们所投资的公司，只是牺牲短期利润，以获取一些创新平台未来实现指数级增长和高利润的机会。华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管2021年木头姐的业绩就不太理想，但ARKK在那一年仍吸引了超过7000万美元的净流入。同时，根据知名零售经纪公司Webull Financial LLC的数据显示，2022年投资者继续向ARKK净注入资金，但持有该基金的账户数量正在不断减少，已降至年内最低水平。或许是曾经创纪录的收益让木头姐可以多获得几次机会证明自己，又或许是足够多的“粉丝”能够支撑她看看“颠覆性创新”是否真的会到来。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9951644242,"gmtCreate":1673482178786,"gmtModify":1676538843394,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111640372193142","authorIdStr":"4111640372193142"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951644242","repostId":1114555387,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9951883512,"gmtCreate":1673447840736,"gmtModify":1676538838301,"author":{"id":"3577223265713987","authorId":"3577223265713987","name":"newbill","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b3c2c0eb6dc5b74b511c7256c91570","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577223265713987","authorIdStr":"3577223265713987"},"htmlText":"反正都不是她的錢😁","listText":"反正都不是她的錢😁","text":"反正都不是她的錢😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951883512","repostId":1114555387,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9951818077,"gmtCreate":1673446277399,"gmtModify":1676538837916,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951818077","repostId":1114555387,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9951806529,"gmtCreate":1673440225062,"gmtModify":1676538836906,"author":{"id":"3577698344691010","authorId":"3577698344691010","name":"建稳的朋友","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b8ad9f42089df9a8f1e1ffbab818a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3577698344691010","authorIdStr":"3577698344691010"},"htmlText":"🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951806529","repostId":1114555387,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":43,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":13,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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