How The S&P 500 Could See 4,500 And 3,000 By Year-End

Seeking Alpha2023-04-06

SummaryA combination of the current macro environment, technical indicators, and some historical precedents combine to make this a rare market climate.This is the part of the market cycle where some ...

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Comments

xiaobaii
2023-04-07
xiaobaii
like
BKT
2023-04-06
BKT
Pls like thanks
jethro
2023-04-06
jethro
Thanks for sharing
- xiaobaii:
  like & comment please
miker9110
2023-04-06
miker9110
O
King19
2023-04-06
King19
Buy insurance!!
jerryang17
2023-04-06
jerryang17
LOL @ all the delusional people in the comments. Yall clearly haven't been through a financial crisis and it shows. Naively overconfident on the stock market with its insane multiples.

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It could be a rarer, horse-like animal, a zebra. Translated to investment terms: Expect the unexpected.This MOFO says the market still has many unresolved issuesHere is the list of market-influencing factors I keep. I wrote about what I call the \"Market Outlook Factor Overview\" on Seeking Alpha back in February.MOFO as of March, 2023MOFO as of March 2023 (ModernIncomeInvestor.com)What I notice in looking back over this list for the past year now is that the 10 components have not changed much. That is, the market is still trying to make a definitive choice about what to worry about and what it can comfortably put in the rearview mirror. Inflation is receding, at least for now. But it is not going away. Some may cheer 4-5% instead of 9% on this measure, but that is still well above what consumers are used to paying. Furthermore, sustained higher borrowing rates, especially for companies with BBB credit ratings or lower, are facing a refinancing wave during the next 12 months, and that may prove challenging. And, in some cases, may prompt serious going-concern issues for many companies. In other words, you can run a business on debt up to a certain point. And when that point is reached, it's a dead end. We are about at that point.I'll note a couple of other stubborn impediments that make the market even more uncertain than usual as we enter the second quarter of 2023. What's coming down the pike includes reduced corporate earnings, which we'll start seeing en masse within days. And we're only 3 months from a US government debt ceiling showdown. Then, there's fading enthusiasm for China's grand re-opening, not to mention the increasing gamesmanship over technology, balloons, and other areas of contention.When a professional hockey game is tied after 3 periods of 20 minutes each, the announcer might say, \"60 minutes is not enough to settle this one.\" Then, they go to overtime. That's what 2023 feels like: The overtime period from 2022. Same lingering issues, different year. And with the NHL playoffs around the corner, I feel obligated to remind you that in the playoffs, the game doesn't end in overtime until one team scores. That can result in games that go on for 2 or 3 additional periods or more, until someone finally puts one in the net. The equivalent with the stock market? Maybe we'll be in a trading range for years. It's happened before.That which doesn't kill bullish sentiment makes it stronger?At the same time, even cautious investor types like me, who have been waiting for that proverbial other shoe to drop, are wondering if the bulls have taken all the bears can throw at them, and whether this will just be a gradual transition to a new bull market. But it will just take a while.To be clear: when it comes to market history, I don't reference it to say it will happen again the same way. I do believe that market history shows us what is possible, because it has happened before. That said, history is made all the time, like last year when stocks and bonds fell together in a way we have not seen in modern times. So, here are a couple of competing historical periods, one for the bulls and one for the bears.First, here's a fairly recent period (January 2015 through June 2016) where the S&P 500 was as indecisive as it has been over the past 12 months. As a technician, I see a lot of failed attempts to break out, similar to what we've seen since the start of 2022. We get rallies, but they fail. Then we get more excitement, bulls proclaim the bottom is in, and it is a thrilling time... for a few weeks or maybe a couple of months.ChartData by YChartsIt helps keep us grounded when we realize that the stock market doesn't always go up or down sustainably. Sometimes it just goes nowhere, and you try your best to find areas of outperformance at the sector, industry or thematic level. Or you focus more on generating income, since price appreciation is hard to muster.2008 post-Bear Stearns/pre-Lehman period: Some similaritiesAnd then, there's this reminder from history. We just had a major banking industry scare. It might be over, but it probably isn't. No matter what your view is on it, you have a chance of being right.I am more concerned, as always, with how my investments ultimately fare rather than what events will occur. I am far from the only market participant who invested through 2008 and recalls vividly that the Bear Stearns crisis was the warning shot. The collapse of Lehman Brothers 6 months later is what nearly brought the economy and market to their knees. According to reports at the time, the US Treasury Secretary was literally brought to his knees, pleading for government action. That was a more dramatic version of what we just saw a few weeks ago. See the chart below from that year.On March 10, 2023, the leading stock market indexes bottomed, at least temporarily, as potential banking industry contagion was snuffed out. Ironically, that was the same date in 2008 when the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) bottomed, following the sale of ailing investment bank Bear Stearns, and so did Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). From March 10, 2008 through June 5 of that year, a span of less than 3 months, SPY gained 10% and QQQ vaulted higher by 22%. You can see that move on the left side of the chart.ChartData by YChartsWhat happened from that point (June 5, 2008)? The market came to realize that Bear Stearns was the first shoe to drop. Lehman was the second. And by November 19, 2008, SPY fell 42% and QQQ dropped by 47%.Adding up the 2 periods, from March 10 to November 19, just over 8 months' time, SPY's net loss was 31% and QQQ's a similar 33%. But why bring up this history? That was 15 years ago.The case for S&P 4,500 this yearBecause I think it's a given that the stock market can break out and go wildly higher at any time. All it would take is what has happened many times since the Global Financial Crisis: central banks give in, flood the system with cheap money, and kick the debt can down the road. Fiscal insanity has been the norm for over a decade. And so, as much as I lean bearish here, and have since late 2021, all bets are off if the \"pivot,\" or at least the market's interpretation of one, becomes a reality. That could lift the market from its current SPY level of around $409 to about 10% higher, as occurred during the same time period in 2008. 10% on top of $409 is $450 on the SPY. Or about 4,500 on the S&P 500. That's still below the all-time high set at the start of last year, but clearly within reach. And given the current \"first-class status\" given to QQQ, on the assumption that the giant technology companies are a source of relative safety right now, that market measure could go much higher, as it did in 2008 before the big drop occurred. So far, so good on that analog, given the strong performance of QQQ and SPY since that March 10 low this year.ChartData by YChartsThe case for S&P 3,000 this yearWhether it is the banking malaise, a domino effect from it, or any combination of that and the list of MOFO items I listed above... or something not even on the market's radar yet, we cannot dismiss the possibility that we'll see much lower levels in the major indexes before 2023 is over. To paraphrase John Belushi's character in the classic movie \"Animal House,\" nothing is over until the market decides it is!When the recent banking crisis low occurred, the S&P 500 was at $386. In 2008 and again in 2020, the market showed us that it can fall very hard in just a matter of months or even weeks. If the second shoe drops, whatever the reason, it seems apparent to me from some of the sharp late-day selloffs we've already seen this year that liquidity could dry up very quickly.So, take that $386 SPY top and knock 31% off of it, a la 2008, and you get $266, or about 2,660 on the S&P 500. Let's be generous and round that up to 3,000. The point here is not the specific figures. It is that we have a collection of factors, mostly negative, but with the offset of an ever-optimistic crowd ready to pounce on any sign that the Fed will save the day. Besides, back in 2008, the market fell 37% for the year, but the first 9 weeks of 2009 were just as bad. So 3,000 is enough downward-facing projection for one article.2008 is an analog, and I am far from the first to pair 2023's market activity with it. We all realize that projecting the future is a Wall Street tradition, but the accuracy of those projections is not. However, my main point again is this: conditions are ripe for a period of extreme swings in the major markets.Portfolio strategyMy views continue as they have been:Play defense first. Short-term US Treasuries are historically attractive, and active defense, either via ETFs like the ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH), the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), or buying put options on SPY or the S&P 500 itself are all examples to consider.Find ways to play offense for that potential \"melt-up\" described above. As I mentioned in a recent article, I have used out-of-the-money QQQ call options, but any broad market equity ETF can potentially be a tactical weapon at times like these. Just think \"rent it\" instead of \"buy and hold it,\" unless you vehemently disagree with my assessment that upside is limited and the downside is gigantic for the foreseeable future.Stay humble. Respect market history, learn from it, but don't take it literally. Use it to assess what is reasonably possible. Because the biggest mistake I've seen investors make is underestimating how bad things can get when a crisis like that of the banks shows us its cards and the investor turns the other way.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9946005621,"gmtCreate":1680799412364,"gmtModify":1680799416358,"author":{"id":"3571345352614779","authorId":"3571345352614779","name":"xiaobaii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946005621","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9948764956,"gmtCreate":1680794720375,"gmtModify":1680794724266,"author":{"id":"3570853427202414","authorId":"3570853427202414","name":"BKT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15cb8e8f0a7c44ca01c83b3bfdddbd86","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948764956","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9948784628,"gmtCreate":1680792961465,"gmtModify":1680792965169,"author":{"id":"4103089604754610","authorId":"4103089604754610","name":"jethro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445b4765728802a2e3b3795587bae0a3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948784628","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":106232961,"gmtCreate":1680799428671,"gmtModify":1680799431859,"authorId":3571345352614779,"author":{"id":3571345352614779,"authorId":3571345352614779,"name":"xiaobaii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9948784628,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">like &amp; comment please</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">like &amp; comment please</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">like &amp; comment please</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9948784802,"gmtCreate":1680792945707,"gmtModify":1680792947628,"author":{"id":"3568440341211251","authorId":"3568440341211251","name":"miker9110","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c64fa1d597623853f21e898b7d0c13","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948784802","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9948712746,"gmtCreate":1680790892086,"gmtModify":1680790896028,"author":{"id":"4088135301967120","authorId":"4088135301967120","name":"King19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Buy insurance!!","listText":"Buy insurance!!","text":"Buy insurance!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948712746","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9948733935,"gmtCreate":1680788152128,"gmtModify":1680788156385,"author":{"id":"4092410761566010","authorId":"4092410761566010","name":"jerryang17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb61373cf0be973dd9dc7f072c54352","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"LOL @ all the delusional people in the comments. Yall clearly haven't been through a financial crisis and it shows. Naively overconfident on the stock market with its insane multiples.","listText":"LOL @ all the delusional people in the comments. Yall clearly haven't been through a financial crisis and it shows. Naively overconfident on the stock market with its insane multiples.","text":"LOL @ all the delusional people in the comments. Yall clearly haven't been through a financial crisis and it shows. Naively overconfident on the stock market with its insane multiples.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948733935","repostId":1114555542,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":153,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":8,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1114555542"}