On the morning of May 19, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating and corrective trend. As of 9:13 AM, the latest quote was 189,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,200 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, representing a daily decline of approximately 1.15%. Market data indicates the contract opened at 190,980 yuan per ton, reaching an intraday high of 192,120 yuan and a low of 189,100 yuan, with a settlement price of 190,680 yuan per ton.
Supply-side disruptions persist, making it difficult to alter the short-term tight supply situation. The lithium carbonate supply side is currently constrained by multiple domestic and international factors, with the short-term tightness being the core logic supporting the upward shift in the price center. Overseas, the impact of export policy disruptions from a resource country, a significant source of China's lithium ore imports, is gradually materializing. Although some companies have completed export procedures and initiated shipments, due to lengthy shipping cycles, newly allocated ore is not expected to arrive domestically until subsequent quarters at the earliest. This creates a risk of a phased gap in overseas ore supply for the domestic market in the current quarter. This country's lithium ore supply accounts for a certain proportion globally, and its short-term reduction directly affects the market structure.
Domestically, as a core lithium salt production region, several major lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi have collectively entered a period of production suspension for permit renewal starting recently. This has led to a contraction in regional lithium raw material output. Even though companies have completed their annual mining quotas in advance, short-term capacity remains difficult to replenish quickly. According to industry research data, recent lithium carbonate production has declined month-on-month, falling short of production plans by a certain amount. Subsequent production schedules are expected to decline further sequentially, primarily due to reductions in spodumene production lines. Although lithium carbonate exports from Chile have shown year-on-year growth, providing some support for domestic imports, this is insufficient to fully offset the impact of tightening raw material supply from mines.
Demand-side resilience exceeds expectations, with energy storage becoming the "second pillar" of growth. In stark contrast to the supply contraction, downstream demand has demonstrated unexpectedly strong resilience, forming another major pillar for the rise in lithium prices. The new energy vehicle market maintains steady growth. Recent domestic production and sales have achieved year-on-year increases, with new vehicle penetration remaining at a high level. Export volumes have grown significantly year-on-year, and the battery capacity per vehicle continues to increase, stabilizing the fundamental demand for lithium from the power battery sector. More notably, the energy storage industry has established itself as the "second growth curve" for lithium demand.
Domestic and international energy storage orders are robust, with leading battery cell manufacturers' order books filled until the end of the year or beyond, driven by booming demand from data centers and overseas residential storage. Institutions noted in recent reports that energy storage production is running at full capacity, and they have revised upward the full-year growth expectation for lithium battery demand to a relatively high level. Industry production scheduling data confirms the strong demand. It is estimated that overall lithium battery industry production scheduling for the current month will increase sequentially, continuously setting new historical peaks. The proportion of energy storage cell production scheduling has already risen to a relatively high level. This dual-drive pattern of "stable power batteries and high growth in energy storage" provides a solid fundamental base for lithium carbonate consumption.
Policy guidance drives industry transformation from "scale competition" to "value competition." The policy environment is profoundly shaping the long-term development logic of the lithium carbonate industry chain. On one hand, fiscal policy is guiding industry upgrades through adjustments to export tax rebates. Starting recently, the value-added tax export rebate rate for battery products has been lowered and is planned to be completely phased out in the future. This move aims to curb low-price homogeneous competition, forcing companies to enhance technological quality and global layout capabilities, thereby accelerating the exit of outdated capacity.
On the other hand, industry regulation is becoming stricter and more standardized. The "Criteria for Determining Major Power Accident Hazards and Supervision and Management Regulations" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission has, for the first time, directly incorporated grid-related performance defects of new energy and energy storage power stations into the statutory criteria for determining major power accident hazards. This promotes the transition of electrochemical energy storage from "policy-driven" to "market-driven," which is conducive to raising the overall industry's technical threshold and safety standards. Simultaneously, under the "dual carbon" goals, the construction of zero-carbon factories has become a new focus, driving the lithium battery industry towards a green and low-carbon transformation.
Macro-level factors present mixed signals, but the long-term logic of the non-ferrous metals cycle remains unchanged. From a broader macro perspective, the non-ferrous metals sector, which includes lithium carbonate, is being pulled by multiple forces. Institutional analysis points out that macro liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are the core factors dominating the fluctuations in non-ferrous metals prices this year. Currently, the market is in a stage of dual-cycle resonance between overseas interest rate cut expectations and domestic accommodative policies, which is favorable for globally priced resource commodities. However, geopolitical conflicts in regions like the Middle East have increased uncertainty in global supply chains, leading to rising energy and transportation costs. They may also trigger concerns about a global economic recession due to high oil prices, thereby suppressing demand expectations for non-ferrous metals.
Securities firms believe in their annual strategy reports that, driven by the combined forces of liquidity easing during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, supply chain disruptions, and demand growth in emerging fields, the non-ferrous metals industry has established its entry into a new upward cycle. Specifically for battery metals, after previous price declines and supply-side consolidation, they are currently at relatively low levels overall. Simultaneously, benefiting from the power demand gap driven by global artificial intelligence development and the significant growth in domestic energy storage installations, institutions are optimistic about their price appreciation and valuation repair potential.
In summary, the current lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance game between the "reality of supply disruptions" and "strong demand expectations." In the short term, the supply gap caused by delayed overseas ore arrivals and domestic mine suspensions, combined with robust production scheduling demand from downstream battery companies, makes prices prone to rise rather than fall, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Authoritative institutions even predict that spot prices may potentially break through new round-number thresholds in future quarters. However, the market also needs to be vigilant about potential risks.
The optimistic view suggests a potential supply-demand gap of a certain scale globally for the year. A more cautious perspective indicates that from the second half of the year into the next year, new global lithium mining capacity will gradually be released, and domestic mines will resume production after permit renewals are completed. This is expected to gradually ease the tight supply situation. Concurrently, the accelerated industrialization of sodium-ion batteries will, in the long run, form a certain degree of substitution for lithium demand. Therefore, while lithium carbonate prices maintain relative strength in the short term, they will adjust dynamically in the medium to long term with the evolution of the supply-demand structure. The industry is transitioning from intense cyclical fluctuations towards a new stage of more structured growth.
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