In the complex and ever-changing market environment, dissecting financial logic and exploring capital principles remain core needs for investors. To help the public better understand the financial industry's workings and gain deeper insights into capital market trends, a special video program titled "Financial Ocean View" has been launched, featuring visual presentations to make financial thinking vivid and tangible. In this episode, a reporter visited Banxia Investment for an in-depth interview with its founder, Li Bei. With nearly 20 years of macro investment experience, Li Bei is known for her sharp views and candid speaking style, making her a influential private fund figure.
Li Bei shared her personal investment philosophy and latest views while directly addressing controversial topics surrounding her, showcasing her distinct focus on investment and passion for life. Key insights include: risk control is paramount, avoiding significant drawdowns is more critical than generating returns, and "black swan" events are far more common than imagined. The core of investing is "surviving the longest," where admitting mistakes forms the foundation for survival, while risk control and diversification are key to navigating cycles.
The real estate sector presents a once-in-a-decade opportunity, driven by the resonance of supply-side clearing and cyclical recovery, with an inflection point potentially emerging within six months. Future equity markets will experience structural bull conditions, where core cyclical blue-chips have substantial room for valuation re-rating, signaling the return of value investing. Gold's long-term investment value is diminishing; high volatility highlights opportunity costs, requiring caution against fluctuations driven by RMB appreciation. Controversy essentially comes with the territory of influence—Li Bei never responds to attention-seeking behaviors, avoids dwelling on negative noise, and focuses solely on investment itself and creating positive value.
When asked about the evolution of her investment framework over two decades, Li Bei emphasized continuous learning and refinement. Her core framework, formed within her first three years, revolves around adjusting asset portfolios based on "economic cycle fluctuations," remaining unchanged in essence while being refined in details. Three critical phases reshaped her perspective: the 2007-2008 financial crisis revealed alpha's vulnerability to systemic risks; the 2015 stock market crash highlighted the dangers of leverage and the value of liquidity; and the 2021-2023 period taught her to understand marginal participants' constraints and behavioral patterns.
Regarding her 2017 founding of Banxia Investment, Li Bei described it as a relatively smooth "second entrepreneurship," leveraging prior experience without survival pressures. She views setbacks as learning opportunities, believing all challenging phases are valuable life assets. Many renowned investors started their careers in their 40s, and she considers herself still young in this field.
Banxia's investment philosophy is defined as "classical macro," following the intellectual lineage of Keynes and Soros. The core logic involves determining the economy's position across various cycles, forecasting key economic variables, and aligning asset allocation with capital flow changes. The firm adheres to a "pure alpha strategy," distinct from the popular "all-weather strategy" that relies on market beta. Banxia pursues absolute returns through precise asset trend judgments without fixed foundational holdings.
Li Bei stresses risk control as Banxia's top priority, aiming to "be the longest survivor." The risk management system focuses on "concentration control" across three layers: asset class limits, single-sector caps at 30%, and individual stock limits at 5-8%. These constraints prevent career vulnerability. For macro strategy performance, Li Bei advises evaluating managers' styles rather than the strategy itself—long-term success depends on selecting steady, long-lasting managers, while short-term performance hinges on alignment with market trends.
On real estate, Li Bei clarifies she has never heavily positioned in the sector but maintains her view of a "decade-opportunity" despite delayed timing due to policy implementation gaps. The opportunity stems from supply-side clearing and cyclical recovery. Current conditions meet stabilization criteria after 18 quarters of adjustment, with marginal improvements in rental yields and financing costs. She predicts an inflection point within six months, potentially accelerated by policy support. However, she emphasizes investing in real estate stocks over physical property, citing potential share expansion and profitability recovery post-supply consolidation.
Regarding equities, Li Bei reaffirms her "small certainty" view for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, supported by RMB undervaluation and structural trends. Markets will not see uniform rallies but differentiation, with core cyclical blue-chips poised for significant re-rating as value investing returns. However, she warns that market hotspots may cause many to miss this core asset revaluation opportunity.
On gold, Li Bei sold all holdings last month, citing diminished long-term value. While gold may oscillate at high levels, its opportunity cost is extreme—potentially missing a major bull market in Chinese cyclical blue-chips. RMB appreciation further reduces its appeal for yuan-denominated investors. She cautions against chasing rallies due to volatility and currency risks.
Sharing investment insights, Li Bei finds value in systematizing her thoughts, connecting with knowledgeable followers, and contributing to financial education. She views mistakes as learning opportunities, openly acknowledging errors while ensuring risk control through favorable odds and safety margins. Addressing controversy, she attributes it to human jealousy, focusing instead on positive feedback—her offline course sold out 200 slots in one day. She ignores attention-seeking behaviors to avoid perpetuating negativity.
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