On the evening of January 5, 2026, A-share vaccine leader Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. announced plans to apply for medium to long-term loans totaling no more than 10.2 billion yuan, with a maximum term of three years. The funds are intended to refinance existing debt and supplement daily operational working capital.
In the third quarter of 2025, Zhifei Biological had already fallen into a 1.2 billion yuan loss. More critically, its core inventory product, the 9-valent HPV vaccine, has a shelf life of three years, and 2026 will see a major expiration milestone for a large batch of vaccines, potentially triggering massive bad debt provisions. This substantial financing effort, which is almost akin to "staking the entire family's assets," highlights the urgency for the company to cope with pressure from its 20-billion-yuan-level vaccine inventory. It also reflects the adjustment difficulties faced by China's vaccine industry amid supply-demand imbalances and price wars.
Following the announcement, Zhifei Biological's stock price saw a slight recovery. As of the morning session on January 9, it had risen nearly 4% over the past five trading days.
The demand for capital stems from a continuously deteriorating operational foundation.
The third-quarter report for 2025 revealed that the company's inventory balance soared to 20.246 billion yuan, a sharp 125% increase from 8.986 billion yuan at the beginning of 2024. Over the same period, accounts receivable reached 12.814 billion yuan. Combined, these two items total 33 billion yuan, exceeding four times the quarterly revenue and creating a massive capital drain akin to a blocked lake. Even more severe is the fact that its core inventory product, the 9-valent HPV vaccine, has a three-year shelf life, and 2026 will see a major expiration point for a large batch, potentially leading to substantial bad debt provisions.
Financial data shows the company's performance has been declining for multiple consecutive quarters. In 2024, revenue fell by over 50% year-on-year to 26.07 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting by nearly 75%. The first half of 2025 saw the company slip into its first semi-annual loss since listing, and by the third quarter, the cumulative loss had expanded to 1.2 billion yuan. Although net cash flow from operating activities surged by 201.18% year-on-year in Q3 2025, it was insufficient to cover the massive capital needs tied up in inventory. This 10.2 billion yuan loan is expected to increase the company's asset-liability ratio from 36.18% to around 48%, approaching historical peak levels.
To secure this crucial funding, Zhifei Biological mobilized its entire chain of guarantee resources: actual controller Jiang Rensheng and his family provided full, joint, and several liability guarantees free of charge, while equity in core subsidiaries and accounts receivable have already been pledged, underscoring the strain on its cash flow.
Zhifei Biological's predicament is not an isolated case but rather a microcosm of the structural adjustments occurring within the vaccine industry. Once a "profit engine," the HPV vaccine market has shifted from supply shortages to overcapacity: since 2024, sales of the 9-valent HPV vaccine have shown weakness. Due to previously signed high-value procurement agreements, Zhifei Biological finds itself trapped in a situation where it is compelled to purchase inventory that it cannot sell.
Making matters worse is the突围 through price wars from domestic vaccine competitors. In the second half of 2025, Wantai Biological's domestic 9-valent HPV vaccine entered the market, with a full-course vaccination price of only 1,500 yuan.
Simultaneously, centralized procurement policies continue to compress profit margins. The winning bid price for the 2-valent HPV vaccine plummeted from 329 yuan per dose in 2022 to 27.5 yuan per dose in 2025, a drop of over 90%. Under multiple shocks, Zhifei Biological was forced to launch its first price promotion, "buy two shots, get one free," yet it still struggles to change the现状 of high inventory levels.
"The industry has now transitioned from an incremental market where 'having vaccines meant sales' to a stage of stock competition focused on 'selecting the best from the good'," KangLe卫士 Chairman Liu Yongjiang stated in a previous public interview. "Price wars are just a temporary phenomenon; ultimately, companies must rely on product quality and differentiated competition to establish themselves."
The entire vaccine industry is undergoing a deep reshuffle. In the first half of 2025, among 17 listed vaccine companies, only 6 were profitable, while 5 incurred losses. Companies heavily reliant on single products, such as康华生物, saw revenues decline by over 50%.
A securities analyst previously indicated to 21st Century Business Herald that "most domestic vaccine companies are concentrated in popular varieties like HPV vaccines and pneumonia vaccines, with a high proportion of 'Me-too' pipelines. Homogeneous competition inevitably leads to price wars, and the industry's net profit margin falling to 9.4% in 2024 is the best proof of this."
Facing the crisis, Zhifei Biological had already defined its core tasks for 2025 as "reducing inventory, collecting receivables, and lowering debt," launching public-benefit vaccination campaigns across many regions nationwide. However, against the backdrop of industry-wide supply-demand imbalance, reducing inventory remains a significant challenge.
A Ping An Securities research report pointed out that limited growth in variety penetration rates and market competition leading to price reductions "have become common industry dilemmas." The infant vaccine market continues to shrink due to declining birth rates, further squeezing companies'生存空间.
In the long term, breaking away from dependence on代理业务 has become an inevitable choice. According to public information, Zhifei Biological stated that the company is accelerating the rollout of its self-developed products. Over the next three to five years, the number of self-developed products on the market will increase significantly, and their contribution to revenue will gradually rise. Currently, key products like the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine are in the application stage for market approval. Concurrently, the company invested 593 million yuan to increase its stake in宸安生物, entering the GLP-1 field to develop treatments for diabetes and obesity, attempting to build a diversified "prevention + treatment" ecosystem.
At the industry level, corporate response strategies are showing divergent trends. Several vaccine companies are simultaneously expanding into overseas markets, seeking new growth avenues.
Zhao Heng, founder of healthcare strategy consulting firm Latitude Health, previously stated that relying solely on price cuts to seize market share is unsustainable. "It might boost sales volume in the short term, but in the long run, it hampers R&D investment capability. Companies must develop higher-tier vaccines and create technological barriers to survive the reshuffle." In November 2025, the China Vaccine Industry Association issued an initiative "strictly prohibiting bidding below cost," but the policy's effectiveness remains to be seen. The industry's transition from "price wars" to "value wars" will still take time.
Zhifei Biological's situation serves as a warning for the vaccine industry. The "myth" of revenue skyrocketing from 446 million yuan to 52.9 billion yuan, once achieved through an exclusive代理 model, has quickly backfired after market conditions changed, highlighting the risks of over-reliance on a single product and a代理 model. For high-investment, long-cycle industries like vaccines, reasonable inventory control and market forecasting capabilities have become core competencies as crucial as R&D capability.
"The industry reshuffle period is precisely the key window for restructuring the landscape," the aforementioned securities analyst said. As price wars force out outdated capacity, companies possessing independent R&D capabilities, international布局, and diversified product pipelines will stand out. "However, in the short term, inventory digestion and cash flow management remain the primary challenges for corporate survival. Whether Zhifei Biological's 10-billion-yuan loan can buy time for its transformation is something worth the industry's attention."
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