**Steel Morning Report: Weak Drivers, Futures Fluctuate with a Bearish Bias** Market Information: 1. China's economic "report card" for 2025 has been released. For the full year of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan; the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year; total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; fixed asset investment fell by 3.8%, of which real estate development investment dropped by 17.2%. At the end of 2025, China's total population was 1.40489 billion, with 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths throughout the year, resulting in a net population decrease of 3.39 million people year-on-year. 2. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, down 4.4% year-on-year; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year; steel product output was 1.44612 billion tons, up 3.1% year-on-year. 3. Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that China's cumulative steel exports in 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, hitting a record high. 4. On January 22, Grade II emergency responses for heavy pollution weather were activated in Xingtai City, Baoding City, Cangzhou City, Hengshui City, and Handan City in Hebei Province, as well as in Dezhou City, Shandong Province. 5. On January 21, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 812,000 tons, down 30.3% from the previous day; the transaction volume of construction steel products from 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down 2.2% from the previous day. 6. Last week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate at 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the mill profit rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; average daily hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week. 7. Last week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, a weekly increase of 6,200 tons, or 0.1%; total inventory was 12.4701 million tons, a weekly decrease of 69,100 tons, or 0.6%; apparent consumption was 8.2612 million tons, up 3.7% week-on-week. Specifically, rebar production decreased by 7,400 tons to 1.903 million tons, total rebar inventory slightly decreased by 400 tons to 4.3807 million tons, and apparent demand rebounded by 152,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons; hot-rolled coil production increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons, inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons.
**Rebar:** Last week, rebar production decreased by 7,400 tons to 1.903 million tons, total rebar inventory slightly decreased by 400 tons to 4.3807 million tons, and apparent demand rebounded by 152,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. Currently, although rebar demand has shown some improvement, its sustainability is questionable, while supply remains weakly stable, and the fundamental picture continues its seasonal weakness. From the raw material side, the winter restocking process is past its midpoint, and mill procurement may become more cautious, leading to a weakening of cost support. In the spot market, trading volume is poor, and steel prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in the short term.
**Hot-Rolled Coil:** Last week, hot-rolled coil production increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons, inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons. Pressure from previous capacity and product switching remains, keeping supply relatively loose; on the demand side, the off-season combined with weather constraints means terminal rigid demand dominates, with limited incremental growth. Traders hold cautious expectations for the future market, generally adopting an operational strategy of "low inventory, fast turnover," actively selling to recoup funds. However, it is important to note that the absolute level of inventory remains high. After the release of speculative demand, downstream terminal procurement may turn cautious, and steel prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in the short term. Strategy-wise, the short-term trading range for Rebar 2605 is referenced at 3100-3200 yuan/ton; the trading range for Hot-Rolled Coil 2605 is referenced at 3250-3350 yuan/ton.
**Ferroalloy Morning Report: Weakness in Both Supply and Demand** View: Neutral Overall ferroalloy supply remains at low levels. After the previous price surge, upstream producers took the opportunity to hedge, and supply has basically bottomed out. Upstream factory inventories are diverging, with silicon iron facing little pressure, while silicon manganese inventories have decreased slightly but pressure persists. The cost side has softened marginally; the proposed coke price increase has not materialized, and manganese ore prices are weakening at the margin. Given the low supply state, the necessity for further significant price declines to squeeze profits has diminished. On the demand side, steel mill production intensity has decreased, and the pace of production resumption is constrained by profitability, falling short of expectations. Winter restocking is entering its final stages. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern. View: Adopt a wait-and-see approach.
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