Futures Market: U.S. stocks rallied collectively, and the release of a new AI model ignited expectations for a surge in computing power demand. Overnight, LME tin closed up 0.17%. The latest settlement price was $47,825 per tonne, an increase of $80. Trading volume was 621 lots, with open interest at 21,307 lots. Domestically, Shanghai tin futures operated at high levels during the night session, closing significantly higher. The main contract, Shanghai tin 2605, settled at 376,380 yuan per tonne, up 3,600 yuan, a gain of 0.97%.
On April 9, tin inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) stood at 8,600 tonnes, a decrease of 5 tonnes from the previous trading day.
Today, Shanghai tin futures opened lower across the board. The main month contract, 2605, opened at 371,000 yuan per tonne, down 1,780 yuan. By 9:15 AM, the Shanghai tin main contract 2605 was quoted at 376,560 yuan per tonne, up 3,780 yuan, a rise of 1.01%. Shanghai tin futures exhibited a pattern of low opening followed by a high climb, maintaining high-level operation throughout the session.
Macroeconomic Overview: The Middle East situation escalated comprehensively, posing risks of disruption to the global energy supply chain. Crude oil and shipping sectors experienced sharp fluctuations. Strong statements from former President Trump heightened market concerns about a widening conflict. Safe-haven sentiment and risk appetite contended repeatedly. Overnight, the U.S. dollar index edged down, and U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated lower. Commodities priced in dollars saw a broad valuation repair. In the short term, support comes from marginally slowing U.S. economic data and interest rate cut expectations. However, if March CPI data exceeds expectations and rebounds, the dollar could resume its upward trend. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, albeit remaining cautious. Technology stocks led the gains. The strength in tech shares boosted expectations for demand in semiconductors and AI computing power. Buying interest for industrial metals increased significantly, while energy stocks faced pressure. Markets are awaiting CPI data for direction. Simultaneously, attention is focused on the pace of domestic inflation recovery and the trajectory of monetary policy. Approaching the weekend, markets are preemptively digesting expectations for core economic indicators like Q1 GDP. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has shown consecutive improvement, and policies supporting new quality productive forces continue to provide underlying support for industrial metal demand. The probability of tin prices continuing their upward adjustment this trading day has increased significantly.
Tin Supply, Demand, and Industry Chain Status Supply Side: Expectations for overseas production resumption have marginally improved, but the tight supply situation for tin concentrate remains unchanged. Domestic refined tin production is gradually recovering. However, raw material inventories are relatively low, smelter profit margins are limited, and capacity release is constrained.
Demand Side: The overall recovery pace is moderate, but structural highlights are prominent. AI servers consume significantly more tin than standard servers, acting as the core engine for demand growth. Demand from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles is steadily increasing. The traditional electronics industry is performing modestly due to seasonal factors, with downstream enterprises mostly maintaining procurement based on immediate needs.
Today's Macro Outlook and Tin Price Forecast Today's focus is on the March inflation data to be released in the evening. Markets are concentrated on whether the window for a Fed rate cut in June will open. If inflation data falls below expectations, rate cut expectations will intensify further, potentially leading the U.S. dollar index to continue its decline, which would be favorable for tin prices. In the short term, tin prices are expected to maintain a strong, albeit volatile, trend, supported by improving macroeconomic sentiment and a tight supply-demand balance. However, risks such as unexpectedly high supply releases and high prices suppressing consumption warrant vigilance.
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