On August 25, gold prices experienced a high-level oscillating session. The Asian session opened near 4650, but prices gradually slipped, finding support above 4620 before rebounding. By the evening, gold peaked at 4680. The metal ultimately settled at 4651, marking a second consecutive daily gain. On Tuesday (August 25), long-end Treasury yields remained relatively stable, yet gold continued its upward drift. Why? Because the market is trading on a "US dollar credit discount" narrative. Simply put: gold's rally from 4400 to 4600+ has shifted its primary driver from "data speculation" to the deeper logic of "credit concerns."
On the geopolitical front, Iran reiterated that any full reopening of the Strait requires an end to the US maritime blockade and the withdrawal of US naval and air forces from Iran's periphery. Meanwhile, the Houthi group claimed responsibility for a drone strike on a Saudi refinery. These developments serve as a stark reminder that the Middle East remains unsettled, keeping safe-haven demand intact.
Technically, although the early Asian session saw a brief extension of the rally, gains were quickly surrendered, and the market now shows signs of further downward correction. Intraday resistance is located at the 4680-4700 zone, while support lies at 4620. A break below this level could signal a short-term shift to correction, with the next test at 4600. If that support also fails, a move toward the 4560-4550 area becomes increasingly likely.
In terms of strategy, the main intraday approach can be adjusted to favor technical pullback corrections, focusing on short positions at higher levels while avoiding blind chasing of highs. In short, even with the right directional view, progress must be made step by step. After a 700-point rally, it's prudent to stabilize the pace. This week's true verdict will come from Wednesday's PCE data and Friday's Waller speech—today is merely a "pullback correction day under bullish control," not a "blind buying day."
Therefore, initiating short positions at higher levels intraday is advisable. Suggested trade: Gold short at 4635-4640, stop loss at 4645, targeting 4580-4560. If the 4600 level remains unbroken before the US session, a counter-long position can be considered, targeting successive upside levels.
Key economic data and events to watch today, Tuesday, August 25, 2026:
20:15 US ADP Employment Change for the week ending August 8
21:00 US FHFA House Price Index (MoM) for June
21:00 US S&P/CS 20-City Home Price Index (YoY) for June
22:00 US New Home Sales (Annualized) for July
22:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August
22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August
Comments