Protein Meals: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined for a second consecutive day as market expectations of timely rainfall in the U.S. Midwest, crucial for soybean pod development, weighed on prices. Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The market is closely monitoring this month's weather forecasts, which indicate that after widespread rainfall over the weekend, high temperatures may ease this week. Another cold front is expected to sweep across western regions, then move eastward toward the Ohio River Valley by week's end. The milder airflow and recent precipitation have improved conditions in some areas. StoneX projects U.S. soybean production at 4.47 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Grain port operations in Argentina have returned to normal.
Domestically, protein meal positions are increasing, drawing heightened market attention. Market participants are focusing on improving macroeconomic sentiment and inflation expectations. The ample supply of soybean meal continues to pressure both spot and futures prices. The market remains focused on weather conditions in producing regions and the pace of domestic protein meal inventory accumulation.
Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil prices rose, driven by expectations of strong demand from key export destinations. However, gains were limited by weakness in soybean oil futures. Traders noted that India's July edible oil imports climbed to their highest level in ten months. European Commission data showed that EU palm oil imports fell 31% year-on-year as of August 2. Canadian canola futures rose, influenced by technical factors and currency movements. Recent favorable weather in Canadian canola regions, with moderate rainfall in many areas, has supported conditions.
Domestically, a broad rally in commodity markets lifted edible oil futures, with rapeseed oil outperforming soybean oil, which in turn outperformed palm oil. Mysteel data indicated that domestic edible oil inventories continued to rise last week. Weak demand and high inventory levels are weighing on spot and futures prices. The inflection point for domestic and international edible oil inventories remains unclear. The market will continue to monitor shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz and edible oil consumption trends.
Live Hogs: On Wednesday, live hog futures extended their rebound, with the main September 2025 contract closing 0.69% higher at 10,970 yuan per ton, and the November 2025 contract gaining 0.76%. According to Zhuochuang data, China's average live hog price was 10.34 yuan per kilogram yesterday, up 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous day. The benchmark price in Henan, the delivery base, stood at 10.4 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. Prices rose in Sichuan and Liaoning, stabilized in Shandong, and fell in Guangdong. In the northeastern and southwestern regions, farmers held back supply and sought higher prices, leading to stronger prices. In other central regions, farmers adopted a wait-and-see attitude, keeping prices largely stable. In the southern regions, farmers faced difficulties in moving inventory, leading to price reductions by most sellers. As temperatures cool later in the year, demand is expected to recover, and supply improvements from declining production capacity could support a rebound in hog prices. However, given that the sow herd has not yet fallen below the normal level, a weak rebound is more likely. Futures prices have rebounded for two consecutive days from low levels, but with declining open interest and narrowing gains, market sentiment changes will be closely watched.
Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures rebounded, with the main September 2025 contract closing 1.7% higher at 4,076 yuan per 500 kilograms. The October 2025 contract rose in early trading but retreated in the afternoon, closing with a daily gain of 1.47%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national average egg price was 4.4 yuan per jin yesterday, up 0.04 yuan per jin. In producing regions, the price of pink-shell eggs in Ningjin was 4.2 yuan per jin, unchanged, while the price of brown-shell eggs in Heishan market was 4.1 yuan per jin, up 0.1 yuan per jin. In consuming regions, the price of brown-shell eggs in Puxi was 4.58 yuan per jin, unchanged, while the price of brown-shell eggs in Guangzhou market was 4.83 yuan per jin, up 0.1 yuan per jin. Egg prices in producing regions were mostly stable with a few increases, while procurement costs in consuming regions were mostly stable with a few increases. Persistently high temperatures are negatively impacting egg spot prices. As temperatures drop later in the season and demand enters the third-quarter peak period, spot prices are expected to rebound.
Corn: On Wednesday, corn futures first fell then rose. Early in the week, losses in the near-term contract widened, while forward contracts followed the near-term contract's movements, trading in a range near the low of October 2025. By midweek, the September and November corn contracts fell in tandem, with the November contract declining to the 2,200 yuan per ton price range. In the spot market, corn prices continued to decline. The ongoing weakness in corn futures had a negative impact on the northeastern market. Market activity was sluggish, with demand unable to support prices, suggesting limited upside potential. In the华北 region, corn prices continued to fall, but the decline narrowed. Pressure from producer inventory liquidation in producing areas needs to be gradually absorbed. Downstream companies generally showed low purchasing enthusiasm, buying only on a need basis. In the consuming regions, corn prices fluctuated weakly, with widespread discounting to move inventory. The persistent weakness in futures influenced market pricing sentiment. Companies tightly controlled raw material inventories, and substitutes continued to squeeze corn usage in feed formulas, with no concentrated stockpiling. Overall, demand for corn in the consuming regions was primarily driven by immediate needs. The overall supply-demand balance remained relatively loose. Looking ahead to August, the corn market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors from substitutes and weather. El Niño drought conditions are providing price support for U.S. grain, but the impact on the domestic market is limited, with futures prices expected to continue fluctuating weakly.
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