Recently, TRANSTHERA-B (02617) played out another unsettling drama. By analyzing the data, we can clearly observe the complete trajectory behind its K-line chart, which spiraled from violent surges to high-level distributions and then declines.
Act One: The 'Myth-Making' Movement took place from September 5 to September 15, 2025. In this brief span of 7 trading days, TRANSTHERA recorded a staggering increase of 593.40% and an astounding fluctuation of 620.72%. Behind these eye-popping figures were predominantly bullish signals (6 bullish against 1 bearish) and a trading turnover rate of up to 14.78%. Notably, over 43.89 million shares were transacted, accounting for more than 98.5% of the total trading volume. First, the leading funds aggressively made continuous purchase orders, vertically driving the stock price up to create the most extreme profitable effect in the shortest time, transforming TRANSTHERA into the market's most dazzling "star stock," thereby attracting all eyes and speculative traders. Secondly, a massive turnover was achieved to complete the "exchange" of chips. During the skyrocketing price rally, the enormous trading volume was not solely due to the main funds' buying. Quite the opposite, the intricacy of the game lay here: on one hand, the leading funds paved the way upwards with substantial cash, while on the other, they gladly absorbed all the trapped stocks that lingered at low levels and the short-term gains obtained in the first wave of rally. This process involved "cross-trading" and turnover, concentrating and redistributing the scattered chips at high levels, thus rapidly inflating the market's average holding cost and laying the groundwork for subsequent distributions.
Data shows that during this nearly 600% surge, funds from the mainland via the Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect were undeniably the core engine of bullish sentiment. In just 7 trading days, both Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect channels saw a combined increase of over 3.06 million shares, with a new holding ratio reaching 1.0152%. BNP Paribas upped its stake by 0.1855%, raising its holdings to 944,900 shares, likely representing the follow-up actions of certain international speculative funds or quantitative funds that keenly captured the emerging strong trend and engaged in right-side chase trades. Meanwhile, PSBC International Securities cut its position by about 0.5561%, with only 50,000 shares remaining at the end of the period. This significant reduction was the largest on the list and could almost be construed as a liquidation or near-liquidation event. Such a substantial sell-off strongly implies that PSBC International Securities, or its clients, were among the most successful profit-takers during this rally, and their decisive sell-off indicates skepticism about the sustainability of such wild increases.
Therefore, we can combine the buy and sell side data to comprehensively reconstruct the true landscape behind the first stage of the "violent surge": this was a high-level chip redistribution involving mainland Hong Kong Stock Connect speculators as buy-side leaders, with earlier lurking funds (represented by PSBC International) and profit-taking retail investors (represented by Futu Securities) alongside some retreating international capital (represented by Citibank) engaged in a large-scale exchange of chips.
Act Two: After the feast of the 'output game,' the next phase awaited. From September 16 to October 15 — almost a month’s span — the execution phase unfolded. The data cannot lie. The stock price plummeted from a high of 679.50 RMB, with a maximum decline exceeding 72%. Market sentiment plunged into the depths of fear: 13 bearish lines against 6 bullish lines; 13 bearish days against 7 bullish days — the bears dominated absolutely. The most concerning data involved trading volume: bearish volume (34.7651 million) significantly and consistently surpassed bullish volume (24.4271 million). This reveals the leading participants’ core intentions and operations: high-position fluctuations, seducing and distributing the shares were the main tunes. A broad fluctuation range (with a maximum fluctuation of 136.99%) was established at high positions. Each time the stock price fell to a technical support level, they would use a small amount of funds to lift it again, sketching out patterns like 'dragon reversal' or 'double bottom.' Each bullish candlestick, every seemingly strong rebound, acted as bait for the market. During the first stage, the net reduction of Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 0.6650%, with a sell-off volume of 1.182 million shares. In stark contrast, Northbound Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a buying increase of 0.598% with an additional 2.7155 million shares, forming a typical 'opposing market.' This phenomenon clearly reveals a significant internal differentiation among the funds that had previously spearheaded the violent surge. The funds from Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect were decisively dumping their shares, which directly contributed to the stock price's lack of support and subsequent free fall.
Concurrently, Futu Securities raised its stake by 0.0378% and Yaocai Securities upped its shareholding by 0.0278%, reflections more of retail trading. Their buying actions indicate a massive number of retail investors attempting to 'bottom-hunt' when the stock seemed 'cheap.' As the second phase commenced, the position data clearly illustrated the differentiation within the rallying main forces: following the peak, the leaders of the surge began to fracture. The Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect funds were the first to sell off, while the Northbound Hong Kong Stock Connect funds became 'market supporters.' Through technical rebounds, they maintained high liquidity, aiming to create better exit prices for Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect participants. Throughout the decline, each notable rebound fundamentally represented an exchange of chips between buy-side entities like Northbound Hong Kong Stock Connect and sell-side entities like Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect — retails (Futu, Yaocai) engaging in contrarian bottom-hunting against the protecting funds from Northbound Hong Kong Stock Connect, with wealth flowing ultimately to the resolutely selling Southbound Hong Kong Stock Connect funds and internationally institution investors who cut losses in time.
Act Three: Overreaction to decline? After experiencing a drastic downturn, the market finally caught its breath from October 16 to 17, witnessing a slight recovery. The two-day increase was 77.27%, all comprising bullish signals and volume. The data shows that the stock surged by 78.85% in total over two days, with a maximum fluctuation of 98.50%, showcasing a typical "overreaction rebound." In terms of price-volume relationships, the total turnover over two days reached 22.7645 million hands, with a turnover rate of 7.547%, and all transactions were bullish, forming a classic "price rise with volume increase" rebound pattern that indicates significant buying from large funds capable of sufficiently absorbing selling pressure. The 98.50% fluctuation is the most notable feature of this rebound, and the market has two interpretations: first, there is intense disparity between bulls and bears, with frantic turnarounds between low-level panic selling and bottom-hunting; second, the lack of stability among chips, with massive fluctuations reflecting the emotional volatility of holders — whether bottom-hunting funds or trapped shares, they trend towards short-term trading rather than long-term holding, planting the seeds of repetition for future trends.
Who is the director of this rebound? Through the buying and selling positions, it is evident that the directors of this rebound were not the original team from September's rally. International speculative funds like BNP Paribas, HSBC, and Merrill Lynch have emerged as the new bulls. Their operating logic revolves around pure short-term trading. On the second trading day of this rebound on October 17, the fund movements provided the crucial trading evidence. The data indicated that the strongest bearish force undoubtedly stemmed from domestic funds. China Investment (Northbound Stock Connect) net sold 105,500 shares, possibly indicating that the original leaders believe this is not a historical bottom — they see the rebound as an opportunity to reduce their positions and lower costs, not as a starting point for a new cycle.
Based on the above analysis, the violent rebound of TRANSTHERA is instigated by international short-term speculative funds but is utilized by domestic leading funds as a "selling window." When the largest holding groups not only opt-out of bullish engagement but rather become the largest sellers, the foundation for this rebound becomes hollow; it entirely relies on the influx of follow-on trades and the short-term funds of international speculators.
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