The positive sentiment from the U.S. stock market last night, coupled with a collective rise in Chinese concept stocks, led to a significant gap-up opening for Hong Kong stocks today. However, prices subsequently retreated to fill the gap, closing near yesterday's levels. On May 13th, two Hong Kong market giants, Alibaba (09988) and Tencent (00700), released their latest quarterly earnings on the same day. Both companies' revenues were slightly below market expectations. Alibaba's highlight was its robust cloud business data. CEO Wu Yongming stated on the earnings call that the annual recurring revenue (ARR) from AI models and application services is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in June and triple to over 30 billion yuan by year-end. Today, Alibaba Cloud launched the enterprise-level AI website building platform, Wan Xiaozhi 2.0, offering users a complete service from website generation and domain filing to launch and backend management, enabling the creation and launch of production-grade websites in minutes. Its stock rose nearly 4% today, indicating market approval of its AI direction, with Kingsoft Cloud (03896) also rising over 4%. For Tencent, its advertising and gaming businesses showed strong resilience. The main criticism is the relatively low "AI weighting" in Tencent's current stock price, with its AI business progress being slower, which aligns with its consistently prudent style and adherence to safety boundaries without encroaching on other territories. The positive aspect is that the company is rapidly integrating AI businesses to catch up. If it can demonstrate clear execution and product-market fit by 2026, it may create upside potential.
Kevin Warsh has finally been approved as Federal Reserve Chairman, but all Democratic votes were against, indicating significant disagreement over his appointment. Ultimately, Warsh's strong background is key; he is the son-in-law of the Estée Lauder family, a major Republican donor, and has Morgan Stanley investment banking experience. Traditionally known for his "hawkish" stance, his position has shifted significantly in recent years towards supporting rate cuts, though the current environment makes this difficult. U.S. April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, with the year-over-year increase widening to 3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly three years, above the market expectation of 3.7%. Inflation is a major obstacle. Furthermore, with Powell remaining on the Board, balancing independence with appeasing Trump will be a challenging task.
On the morning of May 14th, the Chinese and U.S. heads of state held talks. The leaders of both sides agreed to establish a "China-U.S. constructive and stable strategic relationship" as a new positioning for bilateral relations, providing strategic guidance for the next three years and beyond. Comprehensive talks across various fields were held today, with no official news yet. Media reports suggest: Musk said the talks went very well, Huang Renxun gave a thumbs up, and Cook was pleased. The market awaits the final outcome. However, intraday rumors circulated: sources claimed the U.S. has approved about ten Chinese companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and JD.com, to purchase Nvidia H200 chips. A few distributors, including Lenovo and Foxconn, have also reportedly received U.S. approval to buy Nvidia's H200. Official confirmation is pending. Nvidia's pre-market price rose up to 2%. If true, this could partially impact domestic substitution. These related stocks are at high levels, so today's decline is normal. However, even if approvals are granted, the conditions are likely to be quite stringent, potentially involving locked positions and profit-sharing requirements, with the risk of sudden shutdowns. Therefore, it's uncertain whether we would purchase under such limited opening.
Overseas leader Wolfspeed's stock surged, coupled with news of Samsung accelerating its supply chain布局, making the silicon carbide (SiC) sector a focus for funds again. Global AI supply chain research firm Citrini released an AI supply chain report, explicitly identifying silicon carbide (SiC) as a severely overlooked core theme in AI. By 2030, AI power supplies are expected to account for 50% of the SiC power supply market, with substrate and equipment demand potentially growing nearly tenfold. The application scale of SiC in CoWoS advanced packaging is expected to surpass the power supply market. The current market is tens of billions, with future potential to break 200-300 billion. Leader Tianyue Advanced (02631) rose over 18% again.
The lidar sector performed strongly. Hesai (02525) recently held its 2026 Technology Open Day. The company重磅 released multiple products and technologies, including the 6D full-color lidar ultra-light-sensitive chip Picasso SPADSoC, the spatial intelligence AI hardware Kosmo, and robot power modules. Hesai Technology co-founder and CTO Xiang Shaoqing officially announced that Hesai will initiate a strategic upgrade—evolving from "spatial perception" to "spatial intelligence." Its stock rose over 5% today. In 2025, RoboSense (02498) sold 303,000 robot lidar units, a surge of 1141.8% year-over-year, topping the global 3D lidar shipment rankings in the robotics field. Its stock rose nearly 9% today. Innovusion (02665): The company focuses on 3D sensing technology and is a leader in the global image-grade lidar market. Its stock surged nearly 18%.
The lidar boom stimulated gains in robotics materials. Guoen Technology (02768): The Zhoushan base plans to build two PEEK polymerization production lines with an annual capacity of 1,000 tons. Technology and processes are ready, forming an integrated supply chain from resin to structural components. The company切入 the robotics track with lightweight, high-performance materials. Multiple robot products and key components have been研发完成, seen as an important future growth driver. Its stock rose over 7% today.
Under the impact of policy subsidy reductions, most auto stocks have performed poorly in this round. With overseas markets not opening quickly, automakers can only continue "involution," with technology competition being the norm, such as in chassis technology, which may be the final短板 preventing Chinese cars from dominating globally. In recent years, Chinese new energy vehicles have gradually achieved world leadership in many aspects like intelligent interaction, but have lagged behind top brands like Porsche and Ferrari in chassis technology. "Steer-by-wire technology" and wire-controlled chassis will change this现状. The future trend is "no wire control, no intelligent driving." On July 1st, GB17675-2025 "Basic Requirements for Automotive Steering Systems" will be officially implemented, setting unified industry standards for the industrialization of steer-by-wire technology. According to statistics, models already equipped with steer-by-wire technology include: Tesla Cybertruck, NIO ET9, and Zhiji LS8. Models即将上市 equipped include: Li Auto L9 Livis, Xpeng GX, NIO ES9, Zhiji LS9 Hyper, and the new generation AITO M9 Ultimate. As seen, NIO (09866) has the most models and its走势 is the strongest. The company reports Q1 earnings on May 21st, and its stock rose over 3% today. Another company, Li Auto (02015): The new Li L9 Livis will be launched on May 15th with同步开启交付. The new car features a Starlink环绕座舱 design, equipped with an ultra-wide panoramic screen, a神奇移动屏, and a安全岛扶手. It also装载了全新旗舰座椅,打造新一代旗舰座舱 with the "highest standard of home." The pure electric flagship i9 will be launched in the second half of the year,冲击高端纯电市场. Additionally, the company is self-developing the Mach M100 (5nm) VLA model-specific intelligent驾驶 chip, scheduled for mass production and vehicle installation in Q2 2026,适配 the Li L series and MEGA, with算力性能将显著提升. Its stock rose over 4% today.
【Sector Focus】 On May 11th, relevant departments convened多家 pig enterprises, associations, and experts for a symposium to discuss current domestic hog production, pork circulation and consumption, import and export situations, and analyze the form of China's pig cycle changes, risks, challenges, and future trends. The current形势 is严峻, with hog prices持续低位 (8-9 yuan/kg, near a 20-year bottom), the industry in深度亏损, sow herd reduction不及预期,头部企业 still expanding production, and中小散户加速退出 (proportion近 40%). Forced淘汰 of低效产能 is highly likely. The industry is expected to迎来基本面的好转. Key Hong Kong stocks in this sector: COFCO Jiakang (01610), Muyuan (02714), Dekang Agricultural & Husbandry (02419).
【Stock Pick】 CHINA RES BEER (00291): Profitability Continues to Improve; High-End Products in Short Supply The company's 2025 revenue was 379.9 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-over-year;归母净利润 was 33.7 billion yuan, down 28.9% year-over-year. Excluding items like goodwill impairment, factory closures, and land sales, adjusted EBITDA increased 9.9% year-over-year to 98.79 billion yuan, and adjusted归母净利 increased 19.6% year-over-year to 57.24 billion yuan. 点评: CHINA RES BEER ranks first in domestic sales volume, with a market share of about 30%, leading national production and sales for 18 consecutive years; Snowflake is the world's largest-selling beer单 product. The company's performance grew against the trend. In 2025, beer sales volume was 11.03 million kiloliters (+1.4%), outperforming the industry (-1.1%). In 2025, the adjusted EBITDA Margin for the beer business increased 3.9 percentage points year-over-year to 26.3%; adjusted beer EBITDA increased 17.4% year-over-year to 96.1 billion yuan, indicating持续提升 profitability. Gross margin was 42.5%, rising for five consecutive years; ROE over 15%, showing strong cash cow attributes. Core Competitiveness: 1) Low cost, wide coverage: Annual capacity of about 19 million kiloliters, 62 factories nationwide, over 2 million terminal outlets, with unit costs significantly lower than Tsingtao/Budweiser. 2) Full coverage from mass to high-end: Mass market: Snowflake清爽,勇闯天涯 (national大单品). Sub-high-end: MARS Green,匠心营造,老雪 (2025老雪销量+60%). High-end:垦十四 (domestic malt精酿); International (Heineken series, acquired China operations in 2018). The company has deep绑定 with餐饮/便利店/商超/夜场/电商 channels. Instant retail orders on Meituan/Ele.me increased over 50%; e-commerce (Tmall/JD.com) orders increased over 40%.餐饮 channels (hot pot/烧烤/夜场) are全面复苏, with Heineken夜场 orders up 25%. The company is in a全面收获期 for高端化, with sub-high-end and above products accounting for nearly 25% of sales;普高档及以上销量 increased 10%. Star product老雪 is experiencing a情怀复苏;红爵 is a mid-to-high-end爆款, with sales doubling. Heineken: Increased over 20% on a high base, supported by global IPs (Champions League, F1), accelerating高端化.啤白协同 forms a second growth curve. The company acquired Guizhou金沙酒业 (55.19%),布局高端酱香. The company's national经销商 orders are饱满, with high-end products (Heineken/红爵/老雪)供不应求, leading to部分区域缺货. The啤酒主业高端化 is稳步推进, core high-end单 products like Heineken延续强劲增长,数字化降本增效红利持续释放, and core盈利能力稳步提升.
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