Abstract
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital will report quarterly results on February 12, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue growth and EPS expansion, while investors watch how funding costs, asset monetization, and portfolio earnings translate into this quarter’s margin and cash flow trajectory.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 anticipates revenue of $106.01 million, up 20.61% year over year, EBIT of $46.43 million (down 17.86% year over year), and adjusted EPS of $0.65, implying 12.61% year-over-year growth; gross margin and net margin forecasts were not indicated. Management’s revenue mix historically leans on recurring interest and rental income, with gains on asset sales and securitization providing incremental upside; the mix should support steady top-line growth this quarter, while EBIT reflects the expected cadence of nonrecurring gains. The most promising contributor to recurring scale remains interest and rents, which delivered $68.98 million in the prior quarter and is set to benefit from the company’s revenue growth trajectory of 20.61% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital reported revenue of $103.06 million, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $83.26 million, a net profit margin of 291.55%, and adjusted EPS of $0.80, up 53.85% year over year. A key highlight was outperformance versus expectations, with revenue exceeding estimates by $2.91 million and adjusted EPS topping by $0.11. Within the revenue mix, interest and rents generated $68.98 million, providing the core recurring contribution and supporting total revenue growth of 25.90% year over year, complemented by $24.90 million from asset sale gains and $8.42 million from securitization gains.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Recurring Earnings: Interest and Rents
The core earnings engine is the recurring interest and rental income stream, which is the largest revenue contributor and the stabilizer of quarter-to-quarter performance. The $68.98 million delivered in the prior quarter shows the scale of recurring cash yield on the portfolio, and consensus now embeds a company-level revenue increase of 20.61% year over year for the current quarter. That expectation implies a continuation of portfolio deployment and compounding of recurring cash flows that should support adjusted EPS, modeled at $0.65, up 12.61% year over year. The spread between the weighted yield on assets and the cost of funds is central to the quarter’s earnings power; stability or incremental improvement in funding costs versus the prior quarter would support net interest margin dynamics. Sensitivity to the timing of new originations and end-of-quarter balance sheet size will matter for quarterly run-rate revenue, so any late-quarter deployment can have outsized impact on the reported interest line. While EBIT is expected to decline year over year on reduced nonrecurring gains, recurring interest and rent should remain resilient and lift the company’s adjusted profitability measures if the portfolio continues compounding as modeled.
Transaction-Driven Upside: Asset Sales and Securitization
Asset sale gains and securitization gains are the swing factors that can produce quarter-specific upside or downside versus expectations. The prior quarter included $24.90 million from asset sale gains and $8.42 million from securitization gains, illustrating their importance to EBIT and non-GAAP earnings variance. The current forecast’s year-over-year EBIT decline of 17.86% implies the market is taking a conservative view on the timing and size of such gains in this print. Execution against the pipeline of monetizations, the cadence of take-out transactions, and the pricing achieved relative to carrying value will determine whether EBIT and adjusted EPS land above or below the midpoint of consensus. Even a modest uplift in realized gains could offset higher funding costs or seasonal expense patterns, narrowing the gap implied by the EBIT forecast. Conversely, if transactions slip into the following quarter, the revenue line may still track estimates while EBIT lands closer to the guided decline due to lower nonrecurring contribution.
Stock-Price Drivers: Profit Mix, Funding, and Guidance
This quarter’s stock reaction will be driven by the mix between recurring cash earnings and nonrecurring gains, as well as any commentary on the forward run rate for adjusted EPS and dividend coverage. Investors will parse the net interest margin bridge relative to last quarter’s 291.55% net profit margin, recognizing that unusually high net margin reflects the business model’s accounting presentation and the absence of cost of goods sold. Any disclosure that points to lower all-in funding costs or improved access to low-cost capital would be supportive for both the earnings outlook and valuation, because it reinforces spread durability in subsequent quarters. Given the forecast for revenue growth of 20.61% year over year alongside an EBIT decline, clear guidance on the expected cadence of monetizations and the consistency of fee and gain recognition will be pivotal to how the market interprets quality of earnings. Updates on credit performance within the portfolio, new commitments, and realized versus expected yields will further inform the sustainability of adjusted EPS beyond the current quarter. Finally, the degree to which management frames its 2026 trajectory in terms of recurring earnings growth versus episodic gains will likely anchor investor expectations into the next several quarters.
Analyst Opinions
Across the limited commentary available in the specified period, the prevailing stance reflected in consensus estimates leans constructive, with modeled top-line growth of 20.61% and adjusted EPS growth of 12.61% suggesting a bias toward positive sequential and year-over-year progress in recurring earnings. The majority perspective emphasizes the visibility of recurring interest and rental revenue as a foundation for earnings quality, while acknowledging that variability in asset sale and securitization gains can influence EBIT prints from quarter to quarter. This view extrapolates from the previous quarter’s revenue and EPS beats, where revenue exceeded expectations by $2.91 million and adjusted EPS surpassed by $0.11, to suggest that the company’s execution on its pipeline and cost of funds management can continue to produce favorable outcomes relative to forecasts. Consensus framing for this quarter recognizes that a lower trajectory of nonrecurring gains could weigh on EBIT, yet it attributes the anticipated adjusted EPS growth to the compounding of portfolio-level recurring income and steady deployment. Under this interpretation, upside risks would stem from earlier-than-expected transaction closings or better monetization economics, whereas downside would likely be tied to slippage in transaction timing or funding cost pressure that narrows spreads. On balance, the majority tone is that revenue growth and recurring earnings momentum can carry the quarter, with the print’s quality assessed by how management characterizes the pipeline, the repeatability of gains, and the run rate for adjusted EPS into 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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