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Protein meal: (Hou Xueling, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3048706; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013637) On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined, weighed down by the advancing harvest in the U.S. Midwest, with increased supply pressuring U.S. soybean futures. U.S. soybean meal and U.S. soybean oil followed lower. The EPA on Tuesday proposed a rule requiring large refineries to raise the biofuel blending ratio in their products over the next two years; this policy will boost soybean oil demand for biodiesel. U.S. soybean export inspections came in at 1.097 million tons, below the expected 1.2-1.5 million tons. The post-close crop report showed the U.S. soybean harvest rate at 46%, slightly below the five-year average of 50%; the good-to-excellent rating was unchanged at 57%. Domestically, protein meal traded weak and rangebound. Domestic soybean arrivals remain at a high level, oil mill operating rates have recovered, and soybean meal may return to a destocking-to-restocking trend. Rapeseed meal performed stronger than soybean meal, as imported rapeseed inventories continued to decline and imported rapeseed meal inventories fell back. Domestic soybean meal supply is ample, while cost-strengthening expectations remain high; pay attention to capital flows.
Oils and fats: (Hou Xueling, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3048706; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013637) On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose to a two-week high, as weather concerns overshadowed the impact of rising inventories. El Nino has triggered concerns that next year's supply is expected to tighten. High-frequency data showed that exports from October 1-10 grew 33.5%-37.7% month-on-month, also providing upward momentum to the market. Domestic oils and fats futures prices diverged, with rapeseed oil rising, palm oil closing lower, and soybean oil in between. Different oils and fats trade on different logics: rapeseed oil is trading on the repair of high basis under tight supply, while palm oil is trading on the bearish factor that high inventory pressure is difficult to digest. Spot prices followed futures fluctuations, with little change in basis. Going forward, continue to monitor geopolitical conflicts, the digestion of high spot inventories, and the evolution of related themes.
Live hogs: (Wang Na, Practitioner Qualification No.: F0243534; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0001262) On Tuesday, live hog futures extended their decline, with futures prices hitting new lows and a stronger bearish atmosphere. Listed hog enterprises increased their sales in September, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand continued to pressure the live hog market. In the spot market, national hog prices weakened steadily. Hog prices in most regions across the country continued their weak trend. Supply has gradually increased, while consumption performance has been lackluster; slaughterhouses have become cautious in procurement, and year-on-year growth is limited. There is insufficient momentum for hog prices to rebound, and low-level rangebound trading is likely to dominate. At the start of the week, the mainstream transaction price for live hogs in the Heilongjiang market was 9.8 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday; the mainstream transaction price in the Jilin market was 9.66 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from yesterday; the mainstream live hog sales price in the Liaoning region was 9.63 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg from yesterday; the mainstream transaction price in the Inner Mongolia market was 9.6 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from yesterday. Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the live hog market continued to increase weight, hog prices came under pressure and adjusted, and the pattern of strong expectations versus weak reality remained unchanged, restraining hog prices from rising.
Eggs: (Kong Hailan, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3032578; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013544) On Tuesday, the main egg futures contract 2612 was weak during the session and rebounded slightly near the close; as of the close, it rose 0.06% for the day to settle at 3,572 yuan/500 kg. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that yesterday's national egg price was 3.86 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin month-on-month. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.65 yuan/jin, unchanged month-on-month, while Heishan market brown-shell eggs were 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month-on-month; in sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.96 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin month-on-month, and Guangzhou market brown-shell eggs were 4.35 yuan/jin, unchanged month-on-month. End-user demand was flat, trade procurement was cautious, and egg prices continued to weaken, but the decline narrowed somewhat. The main futures contract rebounded after probing lows near the close; pay attention to the impact of demand and spot price trends on the futures market.
Corn: (Wang Na, Practitioner Qualification No.: F0243534; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0001262) On Tuesday, corn continued to rise on reduced positions. Open interest in the main corn contract 2611 fell by 110,000 lots, while the far-month 2701 contract saw limited position increases, and total open interest in the weighted contract declined. Recently, corn futures prices stabilized at the round-number threshold and moved higher in a rangebound manner. The new grain listing volume in Northeast China continued to increase. Deep-processing enterprises continued to lower purchase prices, downstream enterprises procured cautiously, and the overall pattern showed strong supply and weak demand. The autumn harvest of corn in North China has entered its final stage, with overall harvest progress near 80%. On the supply side, new grain continues to come onto the market, but is noticeably lower year-on-year than last year; the quality of new grain in North China is better than in previous years, prices remain at low levels, farmers' reluctance to sell has gradually emerged, and the overall decline has slowed somewhat. On the demand side, arrivals at deep-processing enterprises have fluctuated significantly, downstream procurement has maintained a just-in-time pace, and there are no obvious signs of volume expansion for now. Corn market quotations in sales areas were generally stable, with some slight fluctuations. Trends in producing areas and futures will affect sentiment in sales areas. At present, downstream enterprises' willingness to demand new corn has strengthened; comparing the quality and prices of new grain across multiple regions, they are purchasing on a need basis. Overall, corn harvesting in North China is basically complete, while corn in Northeast China has not yet been harvested and listed on a large scale. After the concentrated supply pressure in North China is realized, the phased supply pressure has eased somewhat, and corn futures and spot quotations have requirements to stabilize and rebound.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is all sourced from public materials. Our company makes no guarantee as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of such information, nor does it guarantee that the information and suggestions contained herein will not undergo any changes. We have strived to make the content of the report objective and fair, but the views, conclusions, and suggestions herein are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations for any specific products or businesses, nor the basis and suggestions for operations related to the relevant varieties. Investors who make investment decisions based on this shall bear their own profits and losses, which have nothing to do with our company and the author.
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