Dissecting the Market: Against the backdrop of a December U.S. rate hike, capital remains cautious, and the see-sawing in tech stocks has injected significant uncertainty into the market, with Hong Kong stocks gapping down over 1.26% today. Jensen Huang is likely in trouble this time, as a new scandal has erupted, with the board reportedly planning to remove him, and his CEO position is very much at risk. Media outlets are already extensively reporting on potential successors, and NVIDIA (NVDA) shares fell over 6% in pre-market trading. The biggest problem is that this comes at a sensitive juncture: after winning the midterm elections, the Democratic Party has gone all out, directly invoking national security concerns and using one issue to advance a broader agenda of unfriendly legislation against us. This incident increases the likelihood of a U.S. crackdown on chip smuggling to China, and Chinese AI companies are also worried that the U.S. may use this as a pretext to restrict remote use of advanced chips.
Today Alibaba (09988) plunged 6.76%, and it is unclear whether this is related, while Tencent (00700) also fell over 2%. As the situation evolves along these lines, yesterday's rumor about Microsoft hoping to relax procurement of Chinese optical modules looks increasingly uncertain. Consequently, yesterday's strong gainers — Cambridge Technology (06166), Victory Giant Technology (02476), Robotechnik (03757), Hisense Broadband (01191), and YOFC (06869) — all surged then reversed to drop over 6%. As I have long said, tech companies that rely on overseas supply chains are unreliable because their fate rests in others' hands, and commercial profits are extremely fragile in the face of politics. Otherwise, Europe would not choose to pay exorbitant prices for oil and gas from other countries rather than buy cheaper Russian energy. The latest news also reveals that certain EU countries are banning equipment from Chinese companies. With the Democrats ascendant, Europe appears to have hardened considerably.
Therefore, the development of technology must ultimately rely on independence and self-reliance, firmly following a domestically controllable path — that is the most prudent direction. Today's tech gainers are all of this type, such as Iluvatar CoreX (09903): training plus inference GPUs, filling the computing power gap for domestic cloud providers, up nearly 9%; Biren Tech (06082): high-computing-power training GPUs, a main line for intelligent computing center substitution, up over 5%; GPixel (03277): high-end industrial machine vision and scientific instrument-grade CMOS image sensors (CIS) forming a substitution play, up over 6%.
Anthropic's IPO is targeting a valuation of up to approximately $1.4 trillion, with shares expected to list on the Nasdaq on November 19. In addition, Anthropic plans to conduct stock sales in Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, Switzerland, and some European countries — this is a global fundraising pace. Domestically, large model progress is also accelerating. Media reports indicate that ByteDance's Seed team is pre-training a model with up to 10 trillion parameters, comparable in scale to Anthropic's most advanced models. ByteDance's Zhang Yiming stated that ByteDance has the capability to compete with OpenAI and Anthropic, but truly catching up to frontier technology will take "until 2029 or 2030 at the earliest"; the current gap lies in the still smaller scale of pre-training datasets. This feels quite low-key — once it reaches Anthropic's level, China's AI will have advanced significantly.
A letter from seven co-founders to investors was placed on the first page of Anthropic's 335-page prospectus. The letter mentions that among the four directions where AI is most likely to improve human life, biology and medicine rank first, with cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and heart disease all named. This brings more narrative to AI pharmaceutical companies, and the biggest beneficiaries remain CXO players, because AI companies can build their own labs for discovery but find it very difficult to build a GMP-compliant factory themselves — heavy assets, long cycles, and regulatory records cannot be skipped. So the further the pipeline advances, the more value concentrates in companies with production capacity. WuXi AppTec (02359) reported revenue of 45.537 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2026, up 39%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.398 billion yuan, up 61%. Revenue for just three quarters exceeded the full previous year. Orders on hand reached 76.74 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year. The company was also recently removed from the U.S. 1260H list, and its shares rose over 2% today. Several leading CXO companies have raised their full-year guidance: WuXi Biologics (02269) lifted its revenue growth forecast from 16%–20% to 20%–23%, and Pharmaron (03759) raised its from 12%–18% to 15%–20%. Order visibility is their shared confidence. Joinn Laboratories (06127) and Asymchem (06821) are also beneficiaries.
Innovative drugs continued to be traded on expectations. Baoji Pharmaceuticals-B (02659): KJ103 received NDA acceptance on June 4, was included in priority review plus breakthrough therapy designation, and is the first IgG-degrading enzyme in China and the world to complete Phase III — with no competitors in the space and extremely strong scarcity. The company originally guided for approval in 2027, but today it suddenly surged, likely because the market is betting that the review is nearing completion and an approval announcement could come at any time. If KJ103 is approved, it could be combined with KJ103 to form a "degrading enzyme plus antibody" synergistic layout, expanding into a larger autoimmune disease market. Maike Medical-B (02335), mentioned a few days ago, is being traded on the expectation that all enrolled participants in the pivotal Phase III clinical trial of its core product MT1013 have completed study treatment and all protocol-specified follow-up procedures and have exited the study. The bet is on unblinding data, and the stock rose over 7% today. There is also Zai Lab (09688): the ACAAI conference is being held in the U.S. from November 12–16 local time, and the company's ZL-1503 poster is scheduled for the 13th, where the first clinical human trial data will be published. It is an IL-13+IL-31Rα bispecific antibody targeting both inflammation and itch pathways. The market is betting on this data expectation, and the stock rose nearly 3% today.
Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (02636) announced that the company partially exercised its over-allotment option, raising net proceeds of approximately HK$227.1 million from the additional H-share issuance. The global offering stabilization period ended on November 11, 2026. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that the list of Southbound Stock Connect eligible securities was adjusted effective November 12, 2026, with Transsion Holdings added. Typically, stocks newly included in Stock Connect are heavily speculated, and the stock surged over 22%.
Sector Focus
Bank of America Securities research noted that TSMC's board recently approved a $41 billion capital budget, pushing approved budgets for 2026 up 116% year-on-year. Of this, 56% is for advanced front-end process capacity expansion and upgrades, the highest share since 2022, reflecting accelerated expansion of 3nm and 2nm capacity. TSMC's cumulative approved capital budget growth has risen to 50% year-on-year, above the long-term trend of 40%–45%. BofA expects 2027 capital expenditure could reach $80–90 billion, above the 2026 forecast of $62 billion; the bank currently forecasts $83 billion for 2027, versus market consensus of about $80 billion. TSMC's increased capital spending benefits TSMC supply chain player ASMPT (00522); indirectly, it also drives peers SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347).
Stock Spotlight
Pharmaron (03759): Overseas subsidiary plans to invest $10 million in an overseas equity fund; CDMO pipeline continues to advance. Recently, the company's wholly owned subsidiary plans to subscribe $10 million to HJ Double Helix Fund L.P. to strengthen its biomedical industry investment layout. The company reported first three quarters of 2026 revenue of 12.003 billion yuan (+19.01%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.247 billion yuan (+9.31%), and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.181 billion yuan (+14.20%); Q3 alone achieved revenue of 4.408 billion yuan (+20.94%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 497 million yuan (+13.06%), and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 488 million yuan (+22.74%). Commentary: The fund mainly makes equity and equity-related investments in the global biotechnology sector, focusing on nucleic acid drugs, cell and gene therapy, and upstream and/or downstream industry investment opportunities. This is beneficial to the company's future development. The company's revenue and core profitability maintained rapid growth. As new orders gradually convert, laboratory services are expected to continue steady growth. In the first three quarters, laboratory services generated revenue of 7.222 billion yuan (+15.05%), with Q3 alone at 2.589 billion yuan (+17.5%), a growth rate higher than the overall first-three-quarter level. The segment's gross margin was 40.23% in the first three quarters, down 2.39 percentage points year-on-year, mainly affected by RMB appreciation against the USD. On the order side, new orders signed in the first three quarters grew over 25% year-on-year, with customer demand continuing to be released, providing support for subsequent project execution. CDMO services generated revenue of 3.102 billion yuan (+31.72%), with a gross margin of 27.83%, up 2.15 percentage points year-on-year; Q3 alone revenue was 1.218 billion yuan (+30.1%), up 20.4% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margin rising to 31.1%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, as business scale expansion and profitability improvement were realized simultaneously. In the first three quarters, new orders signed in the segment grew over 40% year-on-year, with the small-molecule CDMO pipeline continuing to advance and demand for late-clinical and commercial production remaining positive. In the third quarter, the Ningbo API production facility once again passed an FDA on-site inspection, further consolidating global commercial supply capability. Order growth and project conversion are expected to continue supporting CDMO volume growth and improve the company's overall profitability. In the first three quarters, clinical research services generated revenue of 1.659 billion yuan (+15.22%), with a gross margin of 10.96%, down 0.83 percentage points year-on-year; Q3 revenue was 590 million yuan (+18.0%), with revenue growth further accelerating. As revenue scale expanded, Q3 gross margin rose to 13.1%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter, with the profitability improvement trend gradually emerging. The company's new orders signed grew over 25% year-on-year, providing protection for subsequent revenue growth. New order conversion and the release of scale effects are expected to drive continued improvement in clinical research services revenue and profitability. In summary, considering the company's integrated service capabilities, CDMO order accumulation, and commercialization project ramp-up are expected to enhance visibility of mid-term profit growth, the company's CDMO business order conversion and commercialization project ramp-up are viewed favorably.
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