Internal Demand Raises Questions About Tesla's Cybertruck Market Appeal

Stock News04-16 19:45

Recent purchases of Tesla's (TSLA.US) Cybertruck electric pickup by other companies under Elon Musk's control have partially supported the model's sales figures. This unusual arrangement further indicates that the highly controversial electric truck has failed to attract mainstream consumers. According to registration data from S&P Global Mobility, of the 7,071 Cybertrucks registered in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of last year, 1,279 units, or over 18%, were accounted for by SpaceX, the rocket and satellite manufacturer led by Musk. Other enterprises owned by the billionaire purchased an additional 60 units during the same period. This means that nearly one in every five Cybertrucks registered in that quarter was delivered within Musk's vast business empire. These transactions are valued at potentially over $100 million, and the purchasing activity has continued into this year.

Photos and videos circulating online show rows of unused Cybertrucks parked at the SpaceX facility in Texas. The chief engineer for the pickup project stated on social media last October that SpaceX is using these vehicles to replace its fuel-powered support vehicles. At least some of them are being used for security purposes. The electric vehicle news site Electrek reported in December that SpaceX might ultimately purchase around 2,000 Cybertrucks. Based on S&P Global Mobility data, SpaceX's first Cybertruck registrations occurred in October of last year. Sales to Musk-affiliated companies are scheduled to continue through 2026, with an additional 158 units registered in January of this year and 67 in February.

Although the specific financial terms of these inter-company transactions have not been disclosed, the Cybertruck's current starting price of approximately $70,000 implies that SpaceX, xAI, Boring, and Neuralink have collectively paid Tesla over $100 million for these vehicles. It is not entirely clear how Musk's other companies are utilizing these Cybertrucks, nor why an artificial intelligence and social media company would need to purchase 50 units. These figures highlight a significant weakening in consumer demand just two years after Tesla began deliveries of this electric pickup. Without these orders from Musk's other companies—which besides SpaceX include xAI, Boring Co., and Neuralink—Cybertruck registrations in the fourth quarter of last year would have fallen by 51%.

Sam Fiorani, Vice President of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, stated plainly, "Tesla's Cybertruck is losing buyers." SpaceX accounted for the majority of recent Cybertruck registrations. Tesla faces the prospect of a third consecutive annual sales decline. The company is under increasing pressure to reverse the overall sales downturn across its product line. The once undisputed leader in the electric vehicle industry was overtaken by China's BYD last year, losing its top position in global EV sales. Amid intensifying competition in the EV market and changing policy environments, Tesla's first-quarter delivery performance fell short of expectations, marking one of its weaker sales quarters in recent years.

Data shows Tesla's global deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 were 358,000 vehicles, below the market expectation of 372,000. This is the second consecutive quarter where Tesla has missed Wall Street forecasts. Although this still represents a 6.3% year-over-year increase, when adjusted for the low base effect from last year's Model Y production halt, this quarter's deliveries are the lowest since mid-2022. Investors have largely overlooked the decline in Tesla's vehicle sales, as Musk shifts the company's strategic focus towards future technologies like autonomous robotaxis and humanoid robots. However, the traditional automotive business remains Tesla's primary source of cash, and the company's ventures in artificial intelligence, autonomy, and robotics are still far from becoming scalable commercial operations.

Investor patience appears to be waning. Since hitting a record high in mid-December, Tesla's stock price has fallen by approximately one-fifth. The Cybertruck made a high-profile debut at the end of 2023, adding a model emphasizing rugged capability to Tesla's lineup, differentiating it from the sleek Model Y SUV and Tesla Model 3 sedan, which contribute the vast majority of the company's sales. Musk previously predicted that Tesla would achieve an annual production rate of 250,000 Cybertrucks by 2025. He has also called the vehicle Tesla's best product ever.

Tesla hopes the Cybertruck will enable it to enter the lucrative U.S. pickup truck market, long dominated by Ford Motor (F.US), General Motors (GM.US), and Stellantis (STLA.US). However, warning signs were present from the start. The Cybertruck's angular design has been controversial. At times when public sentiment turned against Musk due to his heightened political involvement last year, the high-profile vehicle occasionally became a target for ridicule and vandalism. Furthermore, the vehicle's price ended up being higher than expected, with initial versions priced over $100,000, significantly above the sub-$40,000 starting price initially promoted in 2019.

While Tesla has not indicated it will halt Cybertruck production, the company is phasing out its slower-selling Model X SUV and Tesla Model S sedan—its oldest models. Regarding the uncertain outlook for the Cybertruck, Musk has suggested the company might increase fleet sales to commercial customers. During Tesla's earnings call in January, he stated, "Clearly, there is demand in the cargo delivery market. There's a lot of local cargo movement within cities, and an autonomous Cybertruck could be very useful for that."

Sales challenges are not unique to the Cybertruck. Within the overall stagnant U.S. electric vehicle market, electric pickups have generally underperformed. Ford Motor recently decided to reconfigure its electric F-150 Lightning as a range-extended hybrid model. According to Cox Automotive data, despite a 45% sales decline, the Cybertruck remained the best-selling all-electric pickup truck in the U.S. during the first quarter.

Companies under Musk's umbrella have long been interconnected through financial investments, business collaborations, and even personnel sharing. For instance, xAI uses Tesla's Megapack batteries and has integrated its Grok chatbot into Tesla vehicles. In Las Vegas, convention attendees can travel via Tesla vehicles through tunnels built by Boring. Tesla and SpaceX are also collaborating on a chip production project. However, it is unusual for an automaker to channel a significant portion of a model's sales to affiliated companies controlled by the same CEO. When a vehicle model sells poorly, automakers typically boost sales by offering new incentives, reducing prices, or leasing vehicles to employees.

Tom Libby, an automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility, commented, "When retail demand doesn't match production, this is one way to keep the factory running." Furthermore, some analysis points out that, amidst weak retail demand, SpaceX's continued purchases of the Cybertruck provide crucial marginal support for Tesla's "Cybertruck delivery scale expectations, inventory, and sentiment." If SpaceX successfully conducts a historic IPO and begins public trading, and if the raised capital continues to be used for purchasing expensive Cybertrucks, it could provide a significant boost to Tesla's forward price-to-earnings ratio and medium-term fundamental prospects. Particularly, if SpaceX demonstrates that its purchased Cybertrucks have important uses in future large-scale space projects—for example, an updated Cybertruck developed jointly by SpaceX and Tesla proving useful in major lunar transport missions—the Cybertruck could become a "super bull narrative" for Tesla, comparable to the impact of the Model 3 and Model Y.

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