Abstract
Best Buy will report fiscal Q4 2026 results on March 03, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates the latest quarterly performance, current-quarter forecast, and the consensus tilt from recent institutional commentary.
Market Forecast
For fiscal Q4 2026, Best Buy’s management and market models point to revenue of 13.89 billion, an estimated year-over-year increase of 1.37%, with projected adjusted EPS of 2.47, and EBIT of 678.93 million, up 4.36% year over year. Gross margin and net margin guidance were not explicitly quantified in our dataset; however, the last-reported quarterly gross margin baseline was 23.24% and net margin was 1.45%, which will frame investor expectations for Q4 progression.
Best Buy’s main business remains computing and mobile, alongside consumer electronics and appliances, with enterprise and services add-ons supporting basket size and sticky membership. The most promising near-term contributor is computing and mobile, with last quarter revenue of 4.79 billion and ongoing seasonal uplift potential relative to gaming and home theater.
Last Quarter Review
In fiscal Q3 2026, Best Buy delivered revenue of 9.67 billion, a gross margin of 23.24%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 140.00 million, a net margin of 1.45%, and adjusted EPS of 1.40, each reflecting modest year-over-year growth as revenue expanded 2.40%.
A key operational highlight was resilient season-start demand that lifted revenue above consensus, translating into EBIT of 388.00 million and adjusted EPS of 1.40 versus an estimated 1.31. By category, computing and mobile led with 4.79 billion, consumer electronics reached 2.55 billion, appliances totaled 1.03 billion, services and systems were 0.64 billion, and entertainment was 0.60 billion, reinforcing the mix shift toward productivity and connectivity.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Core categories set the holiday cadence
Best Buy’s fiscal Q4 is anchored by holiday demand patterns across computing and mobile, consumer electronics, and appliances. With the company’s forecast pointing to 13.89 billion of revenue and EPS of 2.47, the implied holiday cadence assumes healthy traffic conversion and attach rates for warranties, installation, and membership services. The 1.37% projected year-over-year increase is measured against last year’s elevated promotional landscape, indicating the forecast bakes in manageable discounting intensity across key categories.
Margin cadence will likely hinge on mix and promotional spend. The last quarter’s gross margin of 23.24% offers a reference point, but Q4 typically sees category-specific pressure offset by richer services attach and vendor-funded promotions. Given a last-quarter net margin of 1.45%, incremental operating leverage in a higher-revenue period should support sequential improvement if inventory is well-balanced and freight costs remain stable.
Within computing and mobile, unit demand has been supported by refresh cycles in laptops, mobile devices, and accessories. The company’s omnichannel capabilities and store fulfillment remain pivotal to capture buy-online-pickup-in-store and same-day delivery during peak weeks, which can influence both top-line velocity and expense efficiency. Execution on inventory allocation across doorbuster events and new model launches will determine the breadth of the holiday performance.
Most promising business: Computing and mobile’s outsized holiday leverage
Computing and mobile posted 4.79 billion in the last quarter and has the highest absolute revenue base among categories, offering the greatest leverage to Q4 outcomes. The year-over-year forecast for company revenue implies low single-digit growth, and computing and mobile is well-positioned to meet or exceed that pace if attach penetration on services and accessories holds. Seasonal product cycles in laptops, tablets, and premium smartphones typically catalyze basket expansion, with potential upsell from peripherals, networking, and storage.
The category’s profitability profile benefits from vendor relationships and merchandising discipline. If the promotional calendar tilts toward curated bundles rather than price-only discounts, the gross profit rate could hold near the company baseline despite competitive pressure. Post-holiday returns and exchange dynamics remain a watch item; however, tighter inventory planning should mitigate markdown risk exiting the quarter.
Customer experience programs and membership-driven benefits can bolster conversion and retention for device ecosystems. As consumer electronics demand normalizes, computing and mobile’s refresh cycle may continue to anchor traffic, underpinning Q4’s revenue and operating income forecasts.
Factors most impacting the stock this quarter: Margin resilience, traffic trends, and services attach
Investors will focus on whether gross margin can remain stable against a promotional holiday backdrop. A gross margin baseline of 23.24% last quarter sets expectations; better-than-expected vendor funding, balanced inventory, and a favorable mix toward services could limit dilution. Conversely, outsized clearance in slower-moving categories could compress rate in late January while clearing seasonal goods.
Traffic and conversion dynamics through the peak weeks are central to the EPS algorithm. The EPS estimate of 2.47 and EBIT estimate of 678.93 million imply constructive operating leverage. If store traffic is steady while digital channels sustain efficient fulfillment costs, SG&A leverage can protect margins. Any sign of consumer fatigue in big-ticket items like premium TVs and appliances would dampen upside and raise the bar for back-half January make-up sales.
Services and membership attach represent a differentiating driver of profitability. Installation, protection plans, and tech support improve unit economics and reduce pure price competition. Strong attach trends can offset hardware price elasticity and help normalize earnings, even if unit volumes are mixed across subcategories. The breadth of attach and post-holiday return rates will be closely read across guidance commentary.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary over the last six months has leaned mixed-to-cautious, with the majority of published views in the Neutral/Hold camp and a minority in Buy or Sell. Notably, Morgan Stanley reiterated Equal-Weight with price targets near the low-80s range, citing a balanced risk-reward amid competitive intensity and discretionary demand variability. Evercore ISI has maintained Hold with targets around the mid- to high-80s, underscoring steady execution but highlighting uncertain growth drivers beyond peak seasonality. Truist Financial has also reiterated Hold with an 84.00 price target, reflecting guarded expectations on comparable sales stabilization.
Among the more cautious voices, Bank of America Securities reiterated Underperform with a 60.00 target, pointing to category pressure and a challenging pricing environment. On the constructive side, Jefferies kept a Buy stance near 95.00, emphasizing operational discipline and the potential for membership and services to support margin consistency. Weighing the distribution of recent updates shows the majority skewing Neutral/Hold, so our synthesis focuses on that camp’s perspective.
The Hold consensus expects in-line to modestly better revenue and EPS, anchored by the company’s own framework: revenue near 13.89 billion, EPS near 2.47, and EBIT near 678.93 million, with company-level year-over-year growth of roughly 1–4% on these metrics. Neutral-leaning analysts emphasize the balance between resilient core categories and promotional intensity, with limited visibility into sustained acceleration beyond the holiday quarter. They also flag that while computing and mobile is the most promising revenue contributor this quarter, mix shifts and softer big-ticket electronics could cap upside in gross margin.
From a stock setup standpoint, the Neutral view highlights that the path to earnings outperformance runs through three levers: consistent traffic across peak weeks, disciplined promotions with strong vendor support, and higher services attach to blunt pricing elasticity. If these levers perform, margin could hold near baseline and EPS can align with the 2.47 estimate. If traffic fades or promotions broaden late in the season, EPS slippage becomes a risk despite the 1.37% revenue growth forecast.
In short, the majority Neutral stance frames expectations for a tightly executed holiday quarter that matches company forecasts, with upside hinging on inventory discipline and services monetization, and downside tied to clearance activity and consumer sensitivity in big-ticket discretionary categories.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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