U.S.-Iran Temporary Ceasefire at Risk Over Israel's Actions; Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed (With Related Stocks)

On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire and indicated that negotiations would take place this week. However, only one day after the ceasefire was declared by the parties involved, disagreements have already emerged regarding whether the truce includes Lebanon. Iranian analysts pointed out that Israel views Iran as its primary regional adversary. By escalating attacks on Lebanon following the ceasefire, Israel is attempting to undermine the truce and weaken Iran's regional influence. If Israel does not cease its operations against Lebanon in the near term, there is a possibility that regional conflict could reignite.

The two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran has not led to a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, Israel's attacks on Lebanon have triggered renewed instability, and Iranian media state that Iran has blocked the passage of oil tankers. Danish shipping company Maersk stated on the 8th that the announced ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran does not yet provide sufficient security guarantees for safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The company is taking a cautious stance toward the current situation and will not immediately resume routes that were suspended last month.

Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, believes that the inflationary impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has extended far beyond crude oil itself and is now spreading to diesel, petrochemicals, plastics, and even helium. These price pressures are expected to gradually transmit to broader economic levels over the coming months, potentially forming a second wave of inflation.

Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, upside risks for oil prices outweigh downside risks. He stated, "The oil supply shortfall caused by the Iran conflict is generating strong immediate demand for spot cargoes." He added, "If the Strait of Hormuz continues to be largely closed, the spot market will eventually impact the futures market."

Related Hong Kong-listed stocks in the crude oil industry chain include CNOOC (00883), PetroChina (00857), and others.